Categories: PenguinPoop

The Penguins on Average

Typically, I like to do an update on the Penguins Prospects the first day of every new month during the season and I am planning on doing it. I have most of the what I want to post done. However, this is the last day of the old month and I want to wait and include the latest, updated stats for the month. Also, before I talk about the kids in the Penguins farm system and deeper, I want to talk about the state of our hometown hockey heroes.

In their last game of the month of November our favorite fightless, flightless fowl lost in overtime (OT) to a stripped-down version of the Carolina Hurricanes, a Canes team with 6 players on IR.

Now, if you are a critical reader, you no doubt picked up on the touch of negativity in my above comment. I am not completely down on our Penguins, we are not as bad as the Columbus Blue Jackets, Chicago Black Hawks, or Anaheim Ducks. However, I am realistic. The Black and Gold is an average team.

A quick look at the league’s average Points percentage (Pts%) shows the average Pts% as 0.554. Our Penguins have a Pts% of 0.565 this morning. In terms of actual points in the standings, the average team would have 25.484 points compared to our Penguins 26. We are average.

(If you are wondering how 0.554 is the league average and not 0.500, remember that OT losses count as 1 point while the winning team gets 2 points. That causes some games to be worth 3 points instead of 2, messing up the Pts%)

That begs the question, “How can a team that boasts Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin only be average?”

 A knee jerk answer might be that Crosby and Malkin aren’t as young as they once were and that much is true, but even at their ages Sid and Geno are still the 2 best forwards on this roster. In terms of Primary Points (Goals and First Assists)/60 5-on-5 (PP/60 5-on-5) our generational talents are still well above the league average at 2.75 and 2.30 respectively while the league average for a forward with more than 108 min played is 1.33. Therefore, our big Centers aren’t the problem.

(108 minutes of TOI was chosen as the cutoff point as it is 1 standard deviation below the mean for forwards.)

Jake Guentzel and despite the lack of love shown toward Kasperi Kapanen, Kapanen are also significantly above the league average at 2.30 and 2.02.

PlayerPP/60 5-on-5
Sidney Crosby2.75
Evgeni Malkin2.3
Jake Guentzel2.3
Kasperi Kapanen2.02
Jason Zucker1.85
Ryan Poehling1.73
Rickard Rakell1.42
Danton Heinen1.4
Brock McGinn0.98
Bryan Rust0.95
Josh Archibald0.94
Jeff Carter0.76
Forwards PP/60

The players dragging down the forwards are Brock McGinn, Bryan Rust, Josh Archibald, and Jeff Carter. Unfortunately, the media and fans seem to give these forwards a pass and focus their criticisms on Kapanen.

On Defense, despite the fact that the media loves to tout how great our puck moving “D” are, only 1 of our regular 6 blueliners to be over the league average in PP/60 5-on-5 for Defensemen playing over 120 minutes (0.51 PP/60 5-on-5) is Jan Rutta. The rest of our D-Corps is not contributing to the offense, regardless of how the media and Coaching staff loves their puck moving skills. As I have written many times when the team tries to drive the offense through the defense, we are not the 1993-94 Washington Capitals. There are no guys named Sylvain Cote, Al Iafrate, Kevin Hatcher, or Calle Johansson on this roster.

(120 minutes of TOI was chosen as the cutoff point as it is 1 standard deviation below the mean for Defensemen.)

PlayerPP/60 5-on-5
Jan Rutta0.57
Pierre-Olivier Joseph0.46
Marcus Pettersson0.45
Kris Letang0.31
Jeff Petry0.31
Brian Dumoulin0.31
Defensemen PP/60 5-on-5

Looking at our Goalies, Tristan Jarry is well above the league average for Save Percentage (Sv%) 5-on5 for Goalies playing 240 minutes or more (0.930 vs 0.916). However, Jarry’s Goals Against Average (GAA) 5-on-5 under the same conditions is hovering more around the average (2.32 vs 2.56). That is usually an indication that the teams defense is not really cleaning their own zone up that well. Jarry is doing his part to keep from dropping below average.

Casey DeSmith on the other hand is below the league average in both Sv% and GAA (0.908 and 2.84).

So, what was the point of this exercise?

I have gone on record to say I don’t have a problem keeping the old core together, even if they lose some games as long as they are losing those games with younger players in supporting roles, younger players who can get better. However, I do have a problem with keeping an old core together and surrounding them with an old supporting cast.

This team is old, old and fighting to keep the final Wild Card spot in the playoffs. They are not Cup contenders. They are also rans hoping to have someone ask them to the Dance.

In a world of possibilities, if you want to argue that there is a possibility of them winning the Cup, if they get their foot in the door, you are right, there would be a possibility.

However, possibilities and probabilities are 2 different animals. Just because something is possible doesn’t make it probable. Furthermore, if the team continues to use the same players and same strategies, the probability of turning a possibility into reality gets smaller and smaller until it actually approaches zero.

And that leads me to the reason of this exercise, a lead into tomorrows post about our Penguins Prospects. It is time to stop playing the same old players hoping for different results. It is time to actually give one of the kids in Wilkes Barre – Scranton (WBS) a legitimate chance on the parent club. Our Coaches strategy of robbing Peter to pay Paul buy moving Rickard Rackell of Malkin’s line to buoy up Crosby’s line when Rust went cold was a tired and useless strategy. He should have brought up a kid from WBS and actually let that prospect get a chance to play with legitimate NHL talent.

And I don’t want to hear the pathetic status quo attempt of an excuse of the kid has to earn. Stop being a hypocrite. The veterans aren’t earning it either, so it is time to let give a kid a chance. The only two players our Penguins drafted under Mike Sullivan to get to the NHL for more than a whistle stop are Calen Addison and Filip Gustavsson and neither of those player went through our farm system, nor were buried by a coaching staff that doesn’t know how to teach kids how to play.

The Other Rick

View Comments

  • Great Article Coach.
    I want to add one more thing if I may.
    Sell outs. All I have heard during the Mario/Crosby era was that the pens always sold out and the ticket prices were not cheap for a middle size market team. Recent reports from media sources here in Canada have noted that the Pens are NOT SELLING OUT like they used to. I would say this ties into exactly what your article said above. Average teams usually don't sell out consistently especially when they are in decline.
    This is not about Sid Crosby ...No way, the real issue is far bigger.Fans are losing hope or finding excuses to stay home.
    What say you my friend ??

    Cheers
    JIM

    • Hey Jim,

      You are right, the team isn't selling out games. I have heard some non-hockey excuses from people as to why they aren't going to see games in person but the most common one is apathy towards an aging, average team. Most people I know still love the Core, but a lot of them are not all that excited at the thoughts of watching older veterans like Carter, Heinen, Archibald, McGinn, Petry, Dumoulin, Kapanen, and DeSmith tread water, or younger players like Pettersson and POJ swing their Ruth Buzzy purses at opposing forwards barging in on Penguin Goaltenders. Most of the people I talk to want to see changes, they want to see younger, exciting players, Forwards that aren't afraid to go straight to the net and set up camp in front of opposing Goalies for a change. They are tired of watching the same old perimeter play. And they are tired of the next man up mantra and want to see players that stand up for teammates. At some point you run out of a next man to come up.

      The lack of sellouts does seem to indicate a loss of patience by the fans in the status quo grinding this team down from elite into just another team.

      • Agreed my friend… Well said. This is a serious issue from an operations point of view.
        Maybe the fans Reverence and respect for Mario is affecting attendance since he no longer owns the team.?? I wondered when the Fenway group bought the pens last year what effect that would have?

        Cheers

        Jim

  • Hey Other Rick,

    A quarter of the way into the season, I'm pretty much in agreement with you. Someone mentioned the other day that the Pens are what they are...a bubble team that's likely to continue to be a bubble team throughout the season.

    When we play weaker teams or teams that give us time and space, our skill emerges and we dominate. And make no mistake, we're still a very talented team. But against the better teams or teams that challenge us and can skate with us, our structural flaws are exposed.

    I do disagree with you about Sullivan. I'm not saying the Pens aren't lax when it comes to developing kids or giving them opportunities, but I don't pin this all on him. It's an organizational mindset. As long as management feels the window is still open for another Cup, I think you'll see experience emphasized over youth. I'm not saying it's right, but it is what it is...

    Anyway, great article and great work to dig up the numbers!

    Rick

    • Hey Rick,

      Thanks.

      I do want to say that I do not absolve anyone on the management side of the equation, when it comes to developing kids and giving them opportunities. I have already criticized JR and RH decisions. However, we are on opposite sides of the table over MS. Sully deserves the lions share of the blame.

      There are arguments that can be made that management's decisions to bring in veterans over playing kids is a function of knowing the limitations of their Coach. If I knew my Coach was a poor teacher, I would also look for veterans in an attempt to give him an opportunity to be successful. Actually, my first option would be to fire him or not hire him, but if I were not permitted that option, my second option would be to give him veterans that he didn't need to coach.

      The second point I will make and leave it at this, you would have had a far better chance of nudging me a little closer to your side of the table if,
      a) Sully would not have countered his GM JR when JR said Kessel was injured in the Caps series.
      b) Sully would not have whined that no one would listen to him after the Isles swept us.
      c) Sully would have never said that E-Rod was going to score Goals in droves for the Penguins.
      d) Sully would never have brought back Simon the first time we got rid of him.
      e) Sully would not have offered Simon a contract this past off-season to bring back that bad penny one more time.

      c, d, and e show he has a poor eye for talent

      I will agree with you in one respect, the organization, above Sully is too stubborn to do the right thing and will keep trying to win with a formula that has only brought frustration until there are no more of the Core left, otherwise they would never have given Sully his extension until he, Sullivan earned his keep the way he demands the kids in WBS to earn their keep (a little "Measure for Measure)

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