I was pondering the present state of our Penguins this morning, when a question popped into my head. Will the Pens need to be bad before they can be good?
Before I expound, I need to mention that Hall-of-Famer Dave Molinari wrote a similar piece on Pittsburgh Hockey Now titled Molinari’s One-Timers: Want to Win Big in the NHL? Start By Losing. An excellent read.
It’s safe to say that the seeds for our five Stanley Cup winners were, indeed, sown in losing. Following a nearly endless run of mediocrity during the team’s early years, culminating in a near-miss against the powerhouse Islanders in the 1982 playoffs, the bottom fell out. A team thought to be only a few players away instead collapsed in 1982-83, winning only 18 games while plummeting into the Patrick Division cellar.
Acutely aware of the need to build through the draft, newly promoted general manager Eddie Johnston broke with the team’s destructive legacy of dealing draft choices for veterans. He basically train-wrecked the ‘83-84 squad in order to draft franchise savior Mario Lemieux. Over the next few seasons EJ continued to build with youth, drafting plums like Craig Simpson, Robbie Brown, Doug Bodger and Zarley Zalapski, good to excellent players who would later serve as key trade pieces.
Craig Patrick finished off the championship puzzle by acquiring established stars and future Hall-of-Famers Joey Mullen, Larry Murphy and Bryan Trottier. Just as important if not more so was his selection of Czech wunderkind and soon-to-be-supernova Jaromir Jagr with the fifth overall pick in 1990.
However, following our back-to-back Stanley Cup triumphs in ’91 and ’92, Patrick seemed to disregard the draft, instead relying on big trades and adroit free-agent signings to keep the Pens on a short list of contenders. The aim, of course, to maximize the window of opportunity to win more Cups with Lemieux and Jagr.
If that modus operandi sounds all-too-familiar, it should. Jim Rutherford followed the same blueprint in recent seasons to surround Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin with a competitive team in hopes of garnering a sixth Cup.
The temptation to grab for the brass ring is understandable and even admirable. Go for it while you can. However, fixating on the short run is a zero-sum game. You eventually exhaust your tradeable assets and the window of opportunity slams shut, especially if you’re not restocking the organization with quality young talent.
Such was the case in the early 2000s. Patrick was forced to gut the team due to tight finances, exposing a prospect cupboard that was practically bare. Armed with a slew of prime picks due to the team’s struggles, including two number ones and a number two overall, Patrick reversed his course and drafted brilliantly.
Of course, there was more than a little luck and providence involved. Generational talents Crosby and Malkin just happened to be available, not to mention the likes of Colby Armstrong, Alex Goligoski, Marc-Andre Fleury, Tyler Kennedy, Kris Letang, Ryan Malone, Rob Scuderi, Ryan Whitney of Spittin’ Chicklets fame and, of course, beloved “Mad” Max Talbot. An influx of young talent set us up for our last three Cups.
And now? Despite GM Ron Hextall’s stated desire to keep the team competitive, it would appear we’re once again on the brink of a lengthy teardown and rebuild. Even if we sign pending UFAs Malkin and Letang, or perhaps more to the point, if we do, there will be precious little cap space left to make needed upgrades to the supporting cast. Nor is there much in the way of ready-made replacements at Wilkes-Barre/Scranton. Once again, our prospect pipeline is virtually dry.
Was there any way to avoid this grim scenario? Was there another path we could’ve taken?
Yes.
One our Metro Division rival the Rangers have executed brilliantly.
Following aborted Stanley Cup runs in 2014 and ’15, then-GM Jeff Gorton rebuilt his team on the fly, swapping out productive veterans like Kevin Hayes, Ryan McDonagh, J.T. Miller and Mats Zuccarello for draft choices and prospects. The moves may not have been popular with the MSG faithful at the time. But thanks largely to Gorton’s trades, which netted a slew of prime picks, the Blueshirts minimized their down time and are once again poised to compete for hockey’s most treasured prize.
Hindsight is always 20/20. Frankly, it would’ve taken an enormous amount of planning and foresight and just plain guts to trade off a Malkin and/or a Letang while they were still under contract. It no doubt would’ve created a lag on the team’s performance in the short run. But it may have helped in the long run.
Water under the bridge and well down stream at this point.
Even if Hextall wanted to follow the Rangers’ path, it’s an option that’s no longer available to the black and gold. Unless, of course, we sign Malkin and Letang to cap-friendly contracts and then deal them for prospects and picks. Which is about as likely to occur as a rainless spring in the ‘Burgh.
I’ll return to my original question. Will the Pens need to be bad before they can be good?
It would appear so.
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Hey all,
Just a quicky blurb to point out a couple of articles of interest on other sites.
The Tribune Review posted a season review of Nathan Legare. Not super in-depth, but it gives a general overview of what has to be considered a disappointing first pro season for Legare (only seven goals and 16 points in 57 games...a frequent healthy scratch.)
And Pensburgh did a season review on Evgeni Malkin that I found fascinating. Geno's been a bit of a lightning rod on our blog, both pro and con. There were a few glaring negatives...the team's 5v5 save percentage was 89.5 when Geno was on the ice and his goals for percentage (44.2) was way below his expected goals for percentage (54.4). And his defensive metrics weren't so hot...no surprise there.
But...his WAR (win above replacement) was 93 percent over the past three seasons and 97 percent in '21-22, which compares very favorably to Sid's 92 percent 3-yr and 95 percent '21-22 numbers. And which seem to support Other Rick's assertions about Geno.
Intriguing to say the least.
Rick
Zeidel
I totally agree. The Pen's are a good team and can make a smooth transition with a couple
of strategic moves. It should start with Malkin and Letang. If you try to trade them now
you'll probably never receive equal value in return - the smart play is to let them walk and
apply that money towards younger Free Agents that you consider building blocks for your
journey back to the top. Personally I believe the Pen's have been there own worst enemy
by refusing to tweak the roster and adjust to the changes teams were making League wide.
To your point the Pen's are a good team and can remain good by making a few strategic
moves with there current roster. GO PENS
Will the Pens first need to be bad before they can be good?
For me Rick, the first point to address is define the meaning of GOOD !!
What is Good to me may NOT be the same to you or any other of our informed readers. That is the key issue here!!
If Good means we make the play offs for the next 2 years,and maybe just as a second Wild Card entry, is that Good for you ?? Or is good meaning that we pretend that we are a CUP Contender and use the Pen's great marketing arm and tell the fans we will win it all...when the real stats show differently? Is that Good ??
I think that is the point Coach and I have been trying to make these last few years. For me, and I know it is not sexy to talk about, but I get really concerned when the facts come out and say that the Pen's revenues were down" about 30 % over the previous year." In my books that is definitely not Good. So for us to be able to answer your question in any logical sense we have to first all define what is the meaning of GOOD?
My second point is that you must keep drafting high end talent in to your system and then be able to train them and deliver them to the big Club in a timely manner. The Pen's have failed miserably in that regard. They always looked for the quick fix and now it is simply to late for any more quick fixes. We need help in all positions. Goal,Defense, Wingers and yes even Center men. Having watched the play offs I think we can all realize the true short comings of our Penguins.
We are not fast enough, we are not big enough and we are not deep enough talent wise to be a true Cup Contender . And we have no elite young talent as you noted.
So if "Good" means that Sidney Crosby will lift another Stanley Cup in a Penguins uniform in the next 3 years before he retires and or moves on, I just do not see it happening Rick.
I agree the teams that bite the bullet like the Rangers,Avalanche,Carolina and others that are willing to take the risks can usually have a quick return to the upper levels of the league. But we are afraid for some reason.No one likes to lose.
Cheers
Jim
Jim
Very good analogy. I will say this about the Pens - early in the season I thought the team looked
really good and had a chance to contend but my belief is this team is more structured for regular season success than playoff success. With a few strategic tweaks / adjustments to this years team who knows? People under estimate the value of having a Revo, Maroon, etc.....etc.....on your roster. I
mentioned this to Rick earlier that it's no surprise that Maroon has a chance for a third straight
Stanley Cup and Revo since leaving the Pen's has played for some of the leagues better teams
Knights & Rangers. IMO Revo has allowed the Rangers skilled players to flourish and there younger
players to develop without fear of a cheap shot from opposing players. The question here is not if
we can be good but great? I think as long as #87 is healthy the Pen's will remain good and if
Management doesn't bury their head in the sand and makes the hard call on several players the
future will continue to remain bright. I know the Other Rick is going to jump in here with some Sully
bashing and its probably warranted. I still stand by my earlier post that Hextall and Burke for the good
of the Organizations future have to have a sit down with Sullivan and give him an ultimatum. We need
added size and toughness or our chances of advancing in the playoffs is slim. GO PENS
Hey Mike,
I am not going to disappoint you Mike, I agree 100% management needs to fix Sully before the address any other issue. The team can't keep throwing good assets away because Sully doesn't value size. I would like to add that the size and toughness also needs to be young. The team can't keep grabbing aging veterans with big contract to fill their holes. They need to save money by playing more kids in those bottom 6 roles.
Thanks Mike,
Your points are very well said.
For me Mike it comes down to money and more specifically the lack of Cap Space and the terrible contracts in the past that the Pen's have made with players who simply do not warrant it. You know who they are and that needs to be fixed before we can move forward. This is the year we need to bite the bullet and dump some of them to make our team a " play off" ready team in the future.
I really enjoy your posts Mike.
Cheers
Jim
Rick
IMO with Sid playing at an above average rate for the next 3-years I think it's doable for the Pen's
to make the transition without being basement dwellers. If they can find away to maintain
financial stability after deciding what to do with Malkin & Letang they would have the flexibility to
go out and add some quality players. Will they contend for the Cup over the next three seasons,
probably not but by adding youth, size and toughness they can begin a realistic journey back to
the top. I do think the handling of the Malkin / Letang situation is crucial.
Rick - side note: Anyway possible for a page dedicated strictly for the upcoming draft??
GO PENS
Hey Rick,
Interesting question my friend! Of course you know my answer, don't you? At this point, yes, but it didn't have to be this way. Only linear thinkers end up having to hit bottom before returning to glory. The writing has been on the wall for the past 5 years of mediocrity, that the end was near, but no exit strategy was put in place.
I ask you and everyone else here to look deeper into the 1984 draft in which our Penguins plucked the jewel of maybe all-time Mario Lemieux. Several seasons earlier on December 21 1981, the forward thinking Montreal Canadiens, thinking at least geometrically or perhaps exponentially dealt "Lucky Pierre" Larouche and their number 1 pick to the then Hartford Whalers for the Whalers 1st pick in the draft (plus several other smaller parts - it was a complicated trade). They were well aware of Lemieux's potential and tried to predict who would finish last that season and trade with them to win the Lemieux lottery. They got close, Hartford finished I believe 5th from the bottom that season - they did get a top 5 pick (Petr Svoboda) without completely tanking.
Our friend Jim has been warning us for more than 5 years, beating the drum for this team to start considering an exit strategy but all the linear thinkers laughed at him. I didn't beat the drum all that loudly as he was having a good season and our Penguins were chasing a 3-peat but I wanted the team to trade Patric Hornqvist at the 2018 trade deadline, he was about to go UFA. Ana and NJD were fringe teams looking for a playoff berth. Imagine if the Pens had made that trade, they would have either the 2nd or 10th pick.
That is only one example of how this team could have avoided a free fall, trading veteran players while their stock is high. Unfortunately, neither management nor the fans had the internal strength to honestly look at the team and make the tough decisions. Now we may not have a choice. There really is no plan for life after Malkin and Letang and it appears they are pretty far apart with only weeks to go.
Hey Coach,
You might be correct about Washington Capitals. Nick Backstrom just under went surgery in Europe and it could be a year or more before he returns.There is a real chance he may not ever play again. Interesting times Coach.
Cheers
Jim
Hey Jim,
I know several Caps fans and they are chomping at the bit to sign Malkin and see him skate with Ovie. I am willing to bet that is what is behind Geno's apparent change of heart and asking for more money, because Washington is already making promises.
I don't blame anyone involved except our own Penguins Organization for either not signing Malkin before the deadline or, failing that, talking him into waving his NMC and trading him to Fla for Lundl. I see this faux pas in far worse light than when they failed to sign/extend Bonino between Cup wins and then couldn't afford him after his stock grew exponentially during the UFA market after his 2nd Cup. I am tired of watching this trite all too often pattern play out.
Your analysis of the Rangers overlook several facts that don't apply to the Penguins. They are hardly an example of rebuilding through losing. First, three of their key players, Panarin, Fox and Trouba, all specifically wanted to play in NY. Panarin signed as a UFA while Fox and Trouba forced trades there. This is not going to happen to the Pens. Second, the Rangers lucked out by picking Shesterkin in the fourth round. No one can count on that. Take these players away from the Rangers, especially Shesterkin, and they wouldn't look so rebuilt. Further, the Rangers not only failed to rebuild through the draft, they show why its so chancey. They get the first and second draft picks in consecutive years and end up with players who (at least so far) have not had much impact.
The basic fact is this: there are 32 teams in the NHL. If it is a random event, a given team will win the cup only once every 32 years. People need to grow up and let go of the attitude that if you don't win the cup, you've had a lousy year. The Pens are a good team right now but not close to a cup winner. So what. It is childish to talk about blowing to start losing while they are still a top 10 team in the NHL. Losing is bad, winning is good. Might as well try to win as much as possible while you can even it doesn't end in a cup.
Hello Zeidel,
Maybe Gorton didn’t pull a rabbit out of his hat at every turn. And you’re right, not every pick high pick has shone. I’m thinking specifically of Kaapo Kakko and Filip Chytil, although the latter definitely came on in the postseason. But for every disappointment there’ve been successes like Ryan Lindgren, K’Andre Miller and Braden Schneider. And however it all came together, the Rangers are definitely heading in the right direction following a comparatively quick turnaround.
We’ve definitely been blessed and fortunate to win three Cups over the past 14 seasons and to watch some wonderfully entertaining hockey. Spoiled, really. To your point, Toronto hasn’t won since the season before the Pens entered the league. But every champion has a shelf life. Maybe I’m being overly pessimistic, but I do see a potentially painful rebuild just over the horizon. Especially with the up-in-the-air status of Malkin and Letang, the lack of middle-six (specifically second line) wingers and just general shortfalls in the way the team is constructed, not to mention the dearth of young talent in the farm system. I just hope it won’t be as bad as Detroit and Chicago.
Switching tracks, there was a very tough hockey player back in the day named Larry “The Rock” Zeidel.
Rick
Ryan Lindgren, K’Andre Miller and Braden Schneider are support players. They didn't get the Rangers to the conference final. It was the four that I mentioned plus Zibanejad, who they got in a trade. None of their key players was drafted by except for Shesterkin in the fourth round. Give the Pens Shesterkin and they would likely have made the finals too.
Zeidel,
Is this your first time commenting, if so, welcome to Penguin Poop.
You may be right in that NYR may not be the paragon poster child for rebuilding but the Penguins are not a top 10 team. If they were a top 10 team they would have made the 2nd round. They have bowed out of the playoffs in the first round 4 seasons in a row, they are at best a middling team, more honestly they are a fading team that has refused to take an honest look at itself and has continued to try the same thing over and over again expecting different results. If Malkin and Letang choose employment elsewhere this season, this team has no plan B in place. There is no Center or RHD on this roster to replace them and any player to which they could turn in of equal talent in the UFA market will be demanding the same pay or more than what they will be losing. If Malkin and Letang choose to return, the core will be on the back end of 30 - not a good situation.