As the years have passed since last our Pittsburgh Penguins hoisted Lord Stanley’s Cup, I find myself relating to the role of Jacobim Mugatu at the end of the movie Zoolander, “The man has only one look, …… Blue Steel? Ferrari? Le Tigra? They’re the same face! Doesn’t anybody notice this? I feel like I’m taking crazy pills!
Our Penguins under Head Coach Mike Sullivan are Derek Zoolander. They have only one look. Since the start of the 2016 – 2017 season, there has been no change in the look of our favorite flightless fowl.
When Sullivan took the Helm of our hometown heroes, on December 12, 2015, he had no time to install HIS system. All he could do was loose the hounds. All he could do was tell generational talents and future Hall of Famers like Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, All Star talents Phil Kessel, Kris Letang, grit players like Nick Bonino, Ian Cole, Eric Fehr, Carl Hagelin, Patric Hornqvist, and Chris Kunitz, and rookies like Tom Kuhnhackl, Bryan Rust, and Conor Sheary, go out there and play hockey. All he could do was ask rookie phenom Matt Murray and future Hall of Famer Marc-Andre Fleury to stand tall and backstop his hybrid, high-octane yet gritty assembly. And freed from the overly complicated Mike Johnston’s system, those players did respond and captured a Cup.
Sullivan was only slightly more valuable to that team than Kevin Porter and Derrick Pouliot. His best contribution to that team was telling the players to do what they do best. And their best was good enough to take the league by storm, only having 1-team the Tampa Bay Lightning put up a fight. The other 3-teams were only good enough to put up token resistance.
It wasn’t until the next season that Sullivan could start implementing HIS system. Although that 2016-2017 team had a better Points Percentage in the regular season, those advanced stats the friends of Sullivan love to tout really dropped off defensively. The teams Corsi (CF%) plummeted from 2 in the league from when Sullivan took over the team in 2015 down to 16, Shots Against per 60 minutes (SA/60) dropped from 13th in the league to 25th, and Goals Against per 60 (GA/60) fell from 8th in the League down to 16th.
| Regular | Post | ||||||||||||
| Season | Pts % | CF % | SF/60 | SA/60 | GF/60 | GA/60 | Pts % | CF % | SF/60 | SA/60 | GF/60 | GA/60 | |
| 2015-16 | Pct | 0.657 | 54.89 | 32.44 | 28.57 | 2.44 | 1.98 | 0.677 | 51.63 | 34.01 | 27.39 | 2.53 | 2.12 |
| Rank | 5 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 5 | 8 | SC | 7 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 7 | |
| 2016-17 | Pct | 0.677 | 50.14 | 32.84 | 31.07 | 2.81 | 2.28 | 0.640 | 46.13 | 27.46 | 30.54 | 2.41 | 2.12 |
| Rank | 2 | 16 | 1 | 25 | 1 | 16 | SC | 13 | 11 | 12 | 3 | 10 |
Long before I crunched the numbers, those who read these boards, if they would remember, will recall that going into the playoffs, I said that the Penguins would only win that 2nd Cup, if Murray and Fleury would stand on their collective heads. The eye test was there for anyone who wasn’t allowing themselves to be blinded by the Sullivan Kool-Aid. Now that I have crunched those numbers, objective evidence supports that eye test and my assertion.
Then came the Post – Season and that played out just as I predicted; our Penguins did win the Cup, but they struggled mightily. Sullivan was not the genius that his fan club still proclaims. Fleury stole the Washington Capitals’ series. Our Penguins should have lost right there. Fortunately, with Murray on the shelf, Fleury just may have played the best hockey of his highlight reel career, shutting out Alex Ovechkin, the Great Eight and crew.
After the Capitals came the Ottawa Senators who wore an already exhausted Fleury (having withstood the burden of the Capitals onslaught). The Senators won game 3 in convincing style, chasing Fleury from the net. The lack of defense from the Penguins finally got to the beleaguered Goalie. Fortunately, the Penguins had their ace in the hole Murray, finally recovered from an injury. The regular season starting Goalie came in fresh and stole that series back for the black-and-gold.
With only 16 teams in the Post – Season, Sullivan’s genius defensive system, that he now had time to install, checked in at 13th in CORSI, 12th in SA/60, dropping their GA/60 to 10th.
Since 2017, Mike Sullivan has only won 1 playoff series and both his regular season and post season records have fallen below Dan Bylsma’s record (0.627 and 0.537 for Sullivan vs 0.668 and 0.551 for Bylsma) and Bylsma was fired while Sulivan is still hailed as a genius by those who refuse to see.
I really hate beating a dead horse; that is at least part of the reason I have written so little of late. Our Penguins haven’t changed at all. They haven’t learned at all from their losses. Rather than face the truth, the team and their media spin doctors keep deflecting, blaming everything and everyone except the main culprit for their descent from elite status. Their latest victim and scapegoat, Ron Hextall, wasn’t even close to being around when Sullivan’s system was exposed as marginal in the regular season, when backed by elite players, but downright awful when the post – season rolls around, requiring superhuman Goaltending to succeed. The team that won the 2nd Cup was essentially the same team that won the first of the back-to-back Cups. The only thing that changed was the system. Therefore the plummet in defensive stats wasn’t from personnel but strategy.
This team was failing long before Hextall got here. Hextall was no where near Pittsburgh when Sullivan’s team Defense disappeared the 2nd Cup year.
The final straw that set me off into writing again about a subject that I have beaten into the ground was our friend and my partner in crime Rick B referring us to read an article on a lesser site, Pittsburgh Hockey Now (lesser site because all they always seem to do is tote the Penguins’ management’s party line rather than actually ask the hard questions like an honest journalist should.
(I say journalist rather than blogger because that site likes to posture about how big they are. I would expect a little more from them)
In the article, to which Rick referred us, Dan Kingerski juxtaposed Bruce Cassidy’s defensive strategies for his Cup winning Las Vegas Golden Knights with Sullivan’s wanna-be strategy for the Pittsburgh Penguins defense. Kingerski notes that Cassidy understands that his team pays Defensemen to play defense and positions at least 1 Defenseman in front of his Goaltender, like any logical thinking Coach would do. However, according to Kingerski, Sullivan tells his Defensemen to chase the puck along the boards like 6-year-olds and then asks his Forwards, particularly Centers – who are paid to score Goals not prevent them – to play Defense in front of their Goalie.
Kingerski further states that is why Sullivan likes small defensemen; they fit his system. They look like 6-year-old defensemen skating around chasing the puck, rather than playing positional hockey.
No wonder, none of the Penguins forward prospects can make the team. All their lives they have trained to score Goals, but their Coach now demands that they stop shots rather than take shots. Their coach wants the Defensemen who were trained all their career to stop shots to move the puck to shoot the puck rather than those more skilled at offense performing those tasks.
And the media buy into the stupidity, complaining about a lack of secondary scoring. Are they serious? Do they really think that these bottom 6 forwards have anything left in their tanks to do the job that they are paid to do after covering for the errant defensemen. They bemoan Jeff Carter because the 37-year-old veteran who has played under real coaches and who must mistakenly think he is supposed to play forward, can’t adapt to Sullivan’s inversion.
My frustration and impetus to write boils down to Kingerski not questioning the lack of logic here. He just rambles on as if Sullivan’s system has any sanity to it.
It is one thing to ask the forwards to help on defense, but it is totally inane to ask them to play defense for roaming defensemen.
The Fenway Sports Group hasn’t been embarrassed enough. They, and their media lackeys still hype Sullivan. So, no, I am not under any delusions that I will get my fondest wish and Sullivan will get his ticket out of town. The champagne must remain on ice. Pittsburgh’s version of Derek Zoolander, one look Sullivan isn’t going anywhere soon. Our coach will continue building his center for ants.
I am resigned to stocking up on other spirits to try and take the sting out of the upcoming season.
Barring new GM Kyle Dubas pulling off multiple Trevor Daley for Rob Scuderi trades, netting him modern day clones of Fleury and Murray to backstop Sullivan’s upside-down strategy as well as finding a mad scientist with a fountain of youth serum to give to Crosby and Malkin we will be having this same conversation next summer. And I have no doubt the same people that want to argue against logic this summer will also argue against logic next summer.
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Just trying to poor a little gas on a fire,
A friend of mine was showing me something on his phone suggesting a trade between the Pens and Flames,
POJ, Ty Smith, and Granlund, and our 1st Round pick
for Noah Hanafin and Calgary's 1st round pick (dropping us back 2 picks)
and our friend Caleb was also talking about a potential trade he heard (I know the source is Caleb who said we were getting Gibson a couple years back - not sure where he heard that) but his suggested trade was the Pens sending Rakell to Ottawa for Debrincat.
Not sure how I feel yet about either of those trades just throwing them out there, I do confess, on first pass I think I could find a silver lining on the first trade, getting rid of Granlund and 2 midget defensemen yet still retaining a 1st round pick.
If we did trade back in the draft like like that, then Mike and my discussion of Musty or Simashev make the most sense.
So I am throwing these out there to see what you guys think (Don't have time to put it in an full post)
The Other Rick
I'm all for the 1st trade. Your basically moving back two picks to free yourself of
Granulunds contract "No brainer" - Then trade 16 and pick up 2 or 3 more picks.
My question would be why would Calgary make that trade?? Could they possibly
be that high on POJ or Smith?? I don't see it but I like it for the Pen's.
Hey Mike,
That is my thought. That is why I say I don't see it. I would think, even if Hanafin is on his way out, other teams have to be able to offer better.
Hey all,
Just a quicky note to mention the Pens have re-signed forward Valtteri Puustinen to a one-year, two-way deal with an AAV of $775 K at the NHL level.
He had a really nice season in '22-23, notching 24 goals and 59 points in 72 games for a poor Baby Pens team. It'll be interesting to see if he gets any kind of shot with the Pens this season. Depending on who we add and which pieces fall where, it might be interesting to plug him in on the second line for a spell and drop Rust to the third line as an anchor for the bottom-six.
Rick
Rick
Not trying to be a negative nelley but at that size Puustinen needs to be really
special and IMO if he was he would of gotten the nod over Nylander for a
call up.
I'm all for giving our young prospects a shot. To me adding size and toughness
for a kid like that to play along of otherwise he'll get destroyed. Also, I'm keeping
my fingers crossed we move Rust in a trade.
Hey Other Rick,
I finally have a moment to put two thoughts together.
First of all…I LOVED your article, your passion and the way you related things. Again…brilliant!
I don’t necessarily agree with you on the first Cup. While I do think it was a perfect storm of a lot of different elements all fusing together at the same opportune time, I don’t think you can sell Sullivan’s contributions short. He certainly was a catalyst and, in my opinion, breathed life and fire into a team that had flatlined under Mike Johnston.
I do agree with your assertion about Fleury and the '17 Cup. I don’t know if we get out of that series with the Capitals without Flower standing on his head. The Caps had something like 63 percent of the shot attempts 5v5. They were so dominant, for long (uncomfortable) stretches it looked like they were working on a power play at even strength. (Thank God for the yeoman work done by Ian Cole, Ron Hainsey and Brian Dumoulin.)
The Caps completely stymied our breakouts by shutting off the boards. If memory serves me correctly, Sullivan didn’t adjust until Game 7, when he finally altered our breakouts to use the middle of the ice. A harbinger of his future reluctance to tweak his system.
I do wholeheartedly agree that Sully’s a one-trick pony…or a Zoolander per your extremely clever and appropriate example (lol). He’s loathe to adjust his system to the talent on hand. Like you, I find his favored preference for defensemen (and their deployment) disturbing. I think it contributes a great deal to our fire-drillish feel in our own end.
Among other issues, I think his system presents too many options to his players (and thus opens the door for more things to go wrong). Too much freedom isn’t necessarily a good thing. I personally think the Pens could benefit from playing a more structured style with a little less reading and reacting.
I also think his style relies too much on skating and a maximum outpouring of effort on a nightly basis, which has to be taxing for a smaller team that’s aging to boot.
How does that quote go? Quick guys get tired, big guys don’t shrink.
Especially come playoff time.
You brought up another interesting point about the role reversal among forwards and defensemen. I think Sullivan and his staff tried to encourage John Marino to become more offensive-minded, and it hurt his game. He did just fine with New Jersey playing his preferred defensive, counter-punching style.
On the flip side, both Teddy Blueger and Zach Aston-Reese flashed some offensive props when they first arrived. By the time they’d departed that part of their respective games had totally dried up. Perhaps encouraged by the coaching staff, it seemed they’d become so obsessed with their defensive duties they forgot about offense altogether.
To sum up my ramble, I truly wish Sullivan weren’t so wedded to his system. I do think he has a lot positive traits as a coach. But he’s just so stone-wall set in the style he wants to play…and the type of player he wants to play it (your reference to the ant farm). A small, speed-oriented team just wouldn’t survive in the current NHL, where hybrid teams that combine speed with size and grind rule. I truly don’t think the type of team Sully wants to employ would physically survive four rounds of playoff competition.
It just isn’t 2016 any more, when we ambushed a heavier, slower NHL with our speed. With very few exceptions, every team can skate now and most are bigger to boot.
I think we need a new, more up-to-date system...and perhaps a new voice behind the bench to coach it.
Rick
Thanks again Rick
One of the great things about this site is that most of us, at least the regulars, are adult enough that we can disagree without being rude to each other.
Therefore, I will only ask this, what do Dan Bylsma, Mike Sullivan, and Craig Berube all have in common? Yep, that is right, all 3 of those Coaches took over a team mid-season, without having the time to install their systems in training camp and rode their inherited teams to a Cup.
I don’t have the time to do an exhaustive search to validate the idea, but it is a well discussed concept that changing coaches in mid-stream improves team play. Many people don’t have the time or inclination or both to consider why that phenomenon may be true, but perhaps it relates to the KISS principal (Keep It Simple, Stupid – not the rock band). As I wrote above, when a coach comes in mid-season, he doesn’t have time to set up any system. All he can do is tell the players to go out and play, all he can do is Keep it Simple.
As you noted the Sullivan system bogs players down with reads and options. Once he installed HIS system, his complexities returned the Penguins to the Mike Johnston era of plodding hockey. The team really isn’t all that organically slower than the rest of the league, despite their age. They just have to think too much causing them to be a half of a step slower.
Therefore, I make my assertion that Sullivan really meant as much to that team winning the Cup as Porter or Pouliot. His contribution was a contribution of omission rather than commission. His contribution to the team was nothing more than what every mid-term Coach has done for his team. Because he did not have time to bog them down with the commission of HIS system, the players were free to skate and react the way there were taught all their lives.
Now that he has had time to commit his personality to the team, they have fallen from grace. He has chased away forwards for wanting to play forward (Kessel – who I noted in response to Jim was only 3 points behind Crosby in the Conn Smythe voting in 2016 when he was free to be Kessel. Also, Sprong – who is a head case, and Kapanen) as well as defensemen who want to play defense (Cole and Oleksiak). He also has alienated prospects into returning to Europe (Bjorkvist, Hallander, Lindberg, Bengtsson, and Pedan) and caused former 1st round draft picks to take leaves of absence.
All of this tells me he was never all that, never what his PR people try and get people to believe.
You yourself noted how Bleuger and ZAR were touted offensive players when they came into Pgh but could not find the net after they had been reinvented into defenseman by Sullivan’s inverted system.
If you recall, one of the comments I made about Pickering after he was drafted was that he skated around his own end like a 6-year-old and dallies by the opponents net while the play goes back the other way; no wonder why Sullivan is so high on him, he is as inverted as Sullivan’s system and why he was -9 in 8 GP last season in WBS and could only manage to be 103 or was it 107 in scoring in the WHL last Season. He fits in perfectly in Sullivan’s opposite world.
I can’t wonder if Poulin, Legare, O’Connor, Zohorna, and Puustenin had come up in any other organization would they now be playing significant roles in the NHL somewhere, being allowed to simply forwards rather than some frustrated would-be Martinet trying to get them to perform tasks they are ill suited for rather than play to their strengths.
Nice read here, Rick. The article brought back some nice memories of the 2017 cup run, like when Sullivan turned to Matt Murray on the bench to go into the game. A very stern faced and determined Matt Murray was ready to step up against the Ottawa Senators.
Thanks Bold Ruler,
I liked Matt Murray. My only problem with him when he first came up was how slow he was to get back to his skates. However, after the team let Bales go and brought Buckley in, around the time of Murray's father's death, Murray's occasional laziness turned into near constant laziness, hanging out at the back of the crease rather than challenging shooters and having his glove hand always glued to his leg rather than in a ready position, compared to the every so often that was before. Bales held Murray accountable. Buckley let him do his own thing and his lazy tendency became ingrained bad habits that he has yet to break.
I have had some people try and start a rumor that Dubas is wanting to try and bring Murray back to Pgh. I doubt it though. I would think it is just some people trying to stir the pot. Furthermore, as much as I do llike Murray and am pulling for him to get his game back, I don't really want him back in Pgh right now, not on his current contract. Ottawa did retain some salary when they traded him to Toronto and he actually may represent an upgrade in sheer ability, to both Jarry and DeSmith (my opinion of them is that low). However, unless Toronto would also retain some salary and get my cost down around the $3 mil level or less, I will pass. I wouldn't want to pay Jarry more than about $2.75 - $3 million for what he brings to the team, and Murray maybe only $100-$200K more than Jarry.
Neither Goalie may contribute much to raising the Cup anytime soon.
Hey Coach,
Your historical analysis is right on the mark. I can only add that today's Pens fans have short memories and can not appreciate the utter hopelessness we all thought in the injury filled 2015-2016 season. Sullivan did not do any miracles as you suggest, but at one point of the season I thought we would have nobody left in Wilkes Barrie, as everyone and anyone with talent was playing with the big club. The kids over performed and with the help of Phil Kessel we won the Cup. HBK would be nothing with out Phil. Yet we all sing Sullivan's praises. Not i. Phil was not appreciated for the great talent he is.
Moving forward Coach I have great faith in that Kyle Dubas ,who signed a long term, very one sided contract in his favor, to be able to lead us back to our winning ways. He is no fool and he realizes what lies ahead.It won't be easy and there is a great chance we will miss the play offs in 2024 BUT FSG signed him to a long term contract and gave him full control.
Sullivan is on a short leash and Dubas will win out in the end. I am sure of that. But being brutally honest Coach our Penguins have been sick a long time,several years now and no one can honestly expect that it can be fixed in a few months.The entire organization has to be rebuilt.
The Pen's media can say differently but for me the most telling detail is......Crosby and Dubas had a serious conversation and Sid is well aware of what is going on and what needs to happen to make them a Cup Contender. When asked about Crosby and a contract extension Dubas replied " we can do that next year, for now Sid just wants to win "!!
Boom !!
Great article Coach..Hope you have a great summer.
Cheers
Jim
Hey Jim,
One thing that does give me some hope is that there were not too many sub 6' players (although there was a 5-9" in there). We will see how Sullivan responds.
Hey Jim,
I agree with you, 100 percent, about Dubas.
Short-term, I think there are too many holes to fill to do much more than prop the Penguins up for a return to the playoffs (maybe). But longer term, I think we're in good hands with Dubas. And I agree that he'll impose his will on Sullivan (and perhaps in a way that Sully doesn't even realize he's doing it) and not the other way around when all is said and done.
Rick
Thanks Jim,
You bring up a great point in Phil the Thrill, not many people would have noted that Crosby only beat Kessel by 3 votes for the Conn Smythe in 2016 (63 to 60) or that Letang was 3rd in the voting with 18 and Murray was tied for 5th with 7 points. Their memories have no doubt failed to recall that Kessel led the team in playoff scoring that year with 22 Pnts and he actually had a better +/- than Crosby (+5 to Sid's -2).
Phil was very important to that Cup team, but a certain Coach couldn't stand him and ran him out of town just a couple of short seasons later, at one point contradicting his GM, said coach came out in the media and said no Kessel was not playing injured when JR told the media he was.
As for Dubas, I am not going to say anything yet. it is too early to tell. I will wait to see what he does with the teams draft pick; will he waste the pick on another ant like Gabe Perreault (5'-10 3/4", 165 lbs) or Brayden Yager (5'-11" 166 lbs) for Sullivan's center for ants or will he draft a Nate Danielson (6'-1 1/2", 185lbs), or David Reinbacher (6'-2", 185lbs) if available, or if those 2 adult sized players aren't available, then trade backward for an extra pick in the draft and grab a Quintin Musty (6'-1 3/4", 200lbs) and a 2nd round pick of maybe a Lukas Dragicevic (6'-1", 190lbs). Then maybe, just maybe I will start seeing a silver lining in the pitch black rain cloud that Sullivan has parked over the Penguins.
You are alos quite right, this team has been sick for some time now. I can almost excuse the 20-17-2018 season, you have to give that team a chance to repeat, but the retooling should have been done in the summer of 2018 and started with a Coach that doesn't contradict his GM. Now, barring divine intervention, this team will need a rebuild.
Very long Rick and very well written. You put a lot of thought into this subject. I'm entertained...
Thank You U N Owen Comic!
Hey Other Rick,
I haven't decided whether I want to write a response to this piece or a response article. But brilliant piece...absolutely brilliant. The Zoolander comparison is spot-on!!!
Rick
Thank You Rick
….but why male models? Seriously, you just answered that. But no one is listening, and the Prime Minister of Malaysia isn’t safe until someone does.
Thank You Matilda Jeffries,
And you appear to be right, no seems to be listening, our Pens keep on doing the same thing expecting different results