Penguins by the Numbers Part 2: It Just Doesn’t Add Up

Being laid up in dry dock due to COVID does have its advantages. It’s afforded me extra time to poke into statistics.

Curious about where our Penguins stand, I decided to take a gander at Natural Stat Trick’s handy team comparison chart to see where we rank among our NHL brethren in key 5v5 metrics such as Corsi for Percentage, Shots for Percentage, Goals for Percentage, Expected Goals for Percentage, Scoring Chances for Percentage and High-Danger Chances for Percentage.

Metric	Percentage	Rank
Corsi for %	52.26	7th
Shots for %	52.39	8th
Goals for %	52.42	9th
Expected Goals for %	51.84	10th
Scoring Chances for %	52.12	10th
High-Danger Chances for %	52.41	10th

 

In each of these important metrics we rank in the top third of the league. Top ten actually. In addition, we’re second in faceoff percentage (54.7) and tied for ninth in penalty killing percentage (82.7). Yet we’re 20^th in the league in points percentage (.531) and tied with the Wild for 22^nd in points (34). Decidedly bottom third.

Our “process” may be good, but something’s spoiling the broth. Which brings to mind the old quote about “lies, damned lies and statistics.” 

So what gives?

Our finishing (or lack of) for one. We rank a dismal 26^th in 5v5 shooting percentage (7.80) and 29^th in shooting percentage (8.69) for all strengths. Then there’s our 27^th-ranked power play (13.7 percent). Two huge reasons why the numbers don’t add up.

It’s no secret our previously high-powered Pens could use an extra scorer (or two or three). However, unless former top pick Sam Poulin gets called up and continues to build on his modest hot streak with the Baby Pens, no help is likely forthcoming. At least not internally.

Actually, if guys would just perform up to their proven track records it would help immensely. Rickard Rakell, who somehow escaped my worry list yesterday, is a two-time 30-goal man who netted 28 last season. He rather famously (or infamously) has one thus far. While there’s hope he might finally break out skating next to Sidney Crosby, the proof will be in the pudding that’s yet to be baked.

Reilly Smith is on pace for 20 goals. He scored 26 last season. Erik Karlsson had a monster 25-goal campaign in 2022-23. He’s on track for 15. Ryan Graves has scored as many as nine goals in a season and tallied eight for the Devils a year ago. He’s potted one thus far.

Not to mention our black-hole bottom six, whose principal constituents have combined for 17 goals. Two less than Sid.

As much as I’d like to believe our finishing will improve, it’s been in a steady decline since ’20-21, when we led the league with a sparkling 11.45 shooting percentage. Far and away the high-water mark of the Mike Sullivan era.

Heaven forbid if Sid or Jake Guentzel go on the shelf. Things could get really ugly.

That’s why I’m not holding my breath when it comes to our playoff chances.