Penguins Update: Five Reasons to be Thankful

Hey all. As our Penguins emerge from the holiday break (and I battle through an unfortunate case of COVID), I thought I’d compile a quickie list of five reasons to be thankful…and five reasons to worry.

First, the good.

FIVE REASONS TO BE THANKFUL

Sidney Crosby

At age 36, Crosby is literally having a season for the ages (the aged, too). He’s tied for fifth in the league in goals with 19 and tied for second in even-strength goals with 15. A model of consistency, Sid’s tallied points in 25 of the Pens’ 32 games. He’s won a remarkable 60.5 percent of his faceoffs…a career-best. His level of commitment and attention to detail is astonishing. At times trying to drag us to a playoff spot single-handed, Sid’s done everything you could conceivably ask…and more. Enjoying a season worthy of MVP consideration.

Jake Guentzel

Following a sluggish start, likely the residue of off-season ankle surgery, Guentzel is once again filling the net on a regular basis. Jake’s got 14 goals on the season, including seven in his last 10 games. Like Sid a model of consistency, the tousle-haired winger has points in 25 of 32 games. With his smarts, cleverness and hand-eye coordination, not to mention considerable grit, the UFA-to-be has proven time and again he’s far more than an extension of Crosby. If he was 6’3” instead of 5’11”? Given his bulldog determination, magic hands and nose for the net, Jake would score 50 goals…easy.

Bryan Rust

Following a disappointing 2022-23 campaign when he tallied “only” 20 goals, Rust began this season as if shot from a cannon. He notched 10 goals in his first 18 games before cooling ahead of an upper-body injury that’s kept him out since early December. He literally throbs with grit, energy and intensity every time he steps on the ice. Too, Rusty seems to have regained a lost step, which makes me wonder if he was playing hurt last season. Leads the team with a plus-13.

Goaltending

Although they’ve been dinged up in recent outings, Tristan Jarry and newcomer Alex Nedeljkovic have been twin towers of strength between the pipes. Due in no small part to their combined efforts, the Pens are eighth in the league in fewest goals allowed and 10^th in fewest goals allowed per game despite our often shaky team defense. Both have sparkled at times. Best of all, they seem to be pushing each other to greater heights while providing some friendly competition.

Marcus Pettersson

“The Dragon” has quietly evolved into one of the better stay-at-home defensemen in the league. Actually, stay-at-home is a misnomer. Pettersson does possess some offensive pedigree. He’s heady and distributes the puck well, with a feathery first pass. The only thing missing? A shot (nine career goals, none this season.) Still, he brings a little bit of everything to the table, including a penchant for blocking shots and a willingness to drop the gloves when the situation calls for it.

Honorable Mention

Noel Acciari and Matt Nieto would have made “the reasons to worry” list early on.  But somewhere around Thanksgiving they began to establish themselves. No, they don’t score, not much anyway. However, Acciari’s in-your-face physicality has been more evident of late, and the PK rebounded the instant he came off IR. Nieto’s a plus-5 despite a ridiculously low percentage of offensive zone starts. While I’m at it, I like what I’ve seen of Valtteri Puustinen so far. Kris Letang was good-to-great early, but has since slipped back into his old high-risk, force-the-issue ways.

FIVE REASONS TO WORRY

Evgeni Malkin

When Malkin bolted from the starting blocks with eight goals and 17 points in 14 games, it looked like he’d discovered the fountain of youth at age 37, not to mention an uncanny sixth-sense chemistry with newcomer Reilly Smith. Alas, it was too good to last. The heretofore white-hot duo turned ice-cold overnight, begetting Geno’s slide into one of his turnover-strewn, east-west funks. Some have suggested moving the mercurial Russian to wing a la Jeff Carter, which would create a huge hole down the middle. Here’s hoping the big guy regains a semblance of his early season form. If not, we’ll be reserving early tee times come spring.

Ryan Graves

The first uncomfortable nudge I got concerning our marquee free-agent addition occurred this summer when I glanced at his JFresh WAR chart. A 41 percent overall WAR? A 39 percent defensive WAR? Yikes. That pretty much describes the player we received to a T, at least going by my eye-test. Actually, Graves hasn’t been the turnover machine I perceive him to be…he’s 40^th among league defensemen with 21 of ‘em. Maybe it’s his gangly physique. But there’s a coltishness in his on-ice comportment that doesn’t inspire confidence.

Erik Karlsson

I wasn’t one of those folks who expected our blockbuster summertime addition to repeat his 25-goal, 101-point campaign from a season ago. However I felt, best-case scenario, EK65 might garner around 70 points while giving our power play a decided boost. Based on early returns, he projects to tally 15 goals and 56 points over a full 82-game slate. Certainly not bad output, but not the offensive windfall some might have anticipated. On the plus-side, despite his reputation for wobbly defense his metrics are uniformly good across the board. It’s just that the production hasn’t been there…especially on the power play.

Third-Pairing Defense (and Defense in General)

On a team with a number of glaring flaws, the third-defense pairing has emerged as our weak underbelly. Pick your poison. Veteran spare part Chad Ruhwedel, error-prone Pierre-Olivier Joseph, rugged rookie John Ludvig and no frills Ryan Shea all have fallen short of the mark. Actually, our defense in general has been far from airtight, which led coach Mike Sullivan to flip-flop Graves and Pettersson recently.

Power play
Following a horrific, month-long 0-37 skein, our power play recently righted itself with a 7-for-31 burst (a 22.6 percent conversion rate), thanks in no small part to the addition of Puustinen and a renewed emphasis on skating and movement. However, issues remain, including difficulty entering the zone and setting up and a nagging habit of slipping back into comfortable roles. Karlsson and Malkin, both of whom have a predilection for high-risk passes at the point, need to be kept in different galaxies if possible.

Dishonorable Mention

Ever since the Malkin line descended into the seventh level of Dante’s Scoring Inferno, our lack of scoring depth has been particularly acute. To illustrate the point, Sid and linemates Guentzel, Rust and most recently Rickard Rakell have combined for 44 of our 91 non-shootout goals, or 48 percent of our output. Geno and his most frequent linemates have half that many. Our bottom-six? Fuhgeddaboudit. With a less-than-robust 10 goals? That goes for our defense as well.