Penguins Karlsson: Counterpoint

Everyone who wanted the Pittsburgh Penguins to acquire Erik Karlsson should never have worried, it was a fait accompli. Once I wrote that I didn’t want that trade to happen, there was no way it wouldn’t go down. Only once over the last 6 frustrating seasons has a Penguin GM done anything I wanted to see occur. Therefore, it was inevitable you would get what you wanted.

On Offense

Please understand, I do agree that Karlsson is now easily the best offensive defenseman on this roster. I am not arguing with you over that. Even if the team had better Defenseman, the laws of probability do suggest the veteran Karlsson would still put up more points than any other D-man on the roster. Last season, the newest Penguin put up personal records (PRs) for goals and points and topped all others at his position for those categories.

However, look at the shape of his career, Karlsson has never really put up two big seasons in a row. After a big offensive output, his numbers dropped the next year.

Yes, Kris Letang did put up 68 points skating with Sidney Crosby. First, those 68 points were with a 35-year-old Crosby who didn’t miss a single game. Crosby is now 36 as of this writing (Happy Birthday captain) and unless coach Mike Sullivan tries to skate two Right-Handed Defensemen (RHD) together, either Karlsson or Letang will not be skating with Crosby. Moreover, if our star pivot gets hurt, neither will be skating with him.

On Ancillary Revenue Streams

I also am not going to argue with those that will suggest that there will be a bump in merchandizing, some fans have already ordered their Karlsson sweater with more to follow. However, that revenue stream would have been much larger had the team brought back Marc-Andre Fleury or plucked the local kid (Vincent Trocheck), last season.

On Defense

Although Our GM, Kyle Dubas, found a way to grab a better offensive Defenseman than Letang, believe it or not, he traded down in terms of defensive acumen. Look at the following tables showing Karlsson’s and Letang’s 5-on-5 CORSI and GF%.

Season	Team	GP	TOI	CF	CA	CF%	GF	GA	GF%
2009-2010	OTT	60	942.50	898	746	54.62	32	41	43.84
2010-2011	OTT	75	1303.10	1256	1198	51.18	40	62	39.22
2011-2012	OTT	81	1582.62	1724	1422	54.8	81	65	55.48
2012-2013	OTT	17	330.15	391	272	58.97	13	9	59.09
2013-2014	OTT	82	1626.18	1817	1499	54.79	72	76	48.65
2014-2015	OTT	82	1654.33	1662	1489	52.75	76	66	53.52
2015-2016	OTT	82	1743.43	1678	1583	51.46	77	79	49.36
2016-2017	OTT	77	1496.13	1440	1456	49.72	60	54	52.63
2017-2018	OTT	71	1459.40	1460	1410	50.87	61	82	42.66
2018-2019	S.J	53	977.17	1150	792	59.22	55	48	53.4
2019-2020	S.J	56	989.28	941	844	52.72	42	45	48.28
2020-2021	S.J	52	942.33	866	943	47.87	38	50	43.18
2021-2022	S.J	50	890.38	894	909	49.58	40	38	51.28
2022-2023	S.J	82	1667.80	1770	1533	53.59	96	96	50
Total				17947	16096	52.72	783	811	49.1

Despite almost always being on the plus side of the CORSI (11 of 14 seasons), Karlsson has found a way to be on the minus side of the Goal differential only finding a way to be on the plus side half the time (7 of 14 seasons).

Season	Team	GP	TOI	CF	CA	CF%	GF	GA	GF%
2007-2008	PIT	63	886.75	710	828	46.16	31	26	54.39
2008-2009	PIT	74	1115.10	1029	999	50.74	54	53	50.47
2009-2010	PIT	73	1165.37	1285	1043	55.2	58	52	52.73
2010-2011	PIT	82	1313.47	1351	1100	55.12	56	49	53.33
2011-2012	PIT	51	891.32	917	767	54.45	60	36	62.5
2012-2013	PIT	35	619.23	628	534	54.04	39	22	63.93
2013-2014	PIT	37	641.00	565	592	48.83	19	26	42.22
2014-2015	PIT	69	1205.98	1268	1011	55.64	51	41	55.43
2015-2016	PIT	71	1350.32	1425	1183	54.64	52	50	50.98
2016-2017	PIT	41	744.52	750	655	53.38	32	31	50.79
2017-2018	PIT	79	1442.92	1531	1249	55.07	55	77	41.67
2018-2019	PIT	65	1252.22	1378	1180	53.87	74	47	61.16
2019-2020	PIT	61	1149.93	1141	1059	51.86	59	57	50.86
2020-2021	PIT	55	1032.98	903	910	49.81	51	37	57.95
2021-2022	PIT	78	1504.82	1488	1416	51.24	71	56	55.91
2022-2023	PIT	64	1226.48	1328	1237	51.77	52	54	49.06
Total				15958	13936	53.38	729	635	53.45

Letang on the other hand is exactly the same in terms of CORSI and GF% (13 of 16 Seasons). It is really interesting how consistent Letang’s CORSI and GF% mirror each other, 53.38 CORSI to 53.45 GF% across his career, while Karlsson is less efficient a 52.72 CORSI to 49.10 GF%. And even though Karlsson generated more shot attempts for his team over his career, our new RHD’s CORSI is 0.66 lower than Letang’s CORSI and Karlsson’s GF% is 4.33 lower.

Now, since hockey is not simply scoring Goals, but it is about scoring more goals than your opponent. Keeping that in mind, for those of you that don’t like Letang, well, it can and probably will get worse with Karlsson taking those 5-on-5 shifts.

On Trade able Assets

Unfortunately, the argument that Karlsson will represent a trade asset if the team fails falls short. Karlsson has a full No Movement Clause (NMC). He isn’t going anywhere unless he wants to go. Yes, if he wanted to be traded to the Penguins for “another chance” he would no doubt waive his NMC, unfortunately, he would control the narrative which would limit the bidding. Dubas may be able to attenuate the loss of assets but never recoup all of what he gave up. And more importantly, our Penguins GM would also have to gnaw his arm off in the form of retaining salary as part of the move, should the trade turn Coyote Ugly.

On Age

Karlsson is younger than Jeff Petry (33 vs 36) but a defenseman’s prime is between the ages of 27 and 33, therefore, our Pens don’t get that much younger, more importantly Karlsson is himself on the back end of his career. My friend Rick Buker likened Karlsson to Paul Coffey, but Coffey was only 26 when he came to the Penguins and Coffey had already put up much higher numbers and was a +275 when he got to Pittsburgh.

And perhaps this is the most damning point and why I hate this trade. Our favorite flightless fowl haven’t changed (S.O.P.). They are still chasing the play. There was a day when talking heads marveled that the puck always seemed to follow Wayne Gretzky and Mario Lemieux (and a few other mega talents) around the ice. They would also say the same thing about Michael Jordan and the basketball, following that superstar around the basketball court.

Now, neither the puck, nor the ball follows and player around the stage on which they perform. Those players are just smart enough to know where the puck or ball is going, and they get out in front of it and let the play come to them; while the rest of the field chases.

Unfortunately, for 6 years and counting the black-and-gold have been chasing the play. Rather than getting out in front and finding the next Karlsson and/or Crosby, for 3 consecutive GMs, just like the GMs of the early Penguins and the GMs of late 90s, and early 2000s, our Penguins are opting for fading stars instead of trying to find rising stars. Penguins’ GMs are buying high and trading low.

Since draft picks and prospects in general can be crap shoot, it behooves a GM to have as many draft picks and young college and European Free Agents (FA) as possible. Just like sales, it falls to a numbers game. To find that next Erik Karlsson, a team needs to go through as many prospects as it can lay their hands on. Two players I wanted here in Pittsburgh were Oliwer Kaski, who is now hitting that 27-33 years of age sweet spot and Jake Livingstone, who was signed by the Nashville Predators. Had they signed Kaski and kept Calen Addison like I wanted, it would be doubtful that they would have need for Karlsson.

Now, after screwing that up, they are once again chasing the play by dumping chances to get ahead of the play, in vain hopes of catching up to where the play was last season, not where it is going this year or next.

Even though the 2024 1^st round draft pick is top 10 protected, the 2025 pick will not be and if this team fails so bad to drop down into that top 10 draft slot, the following year will also be a top 10 pick that our Penguins will have ceded to San Jose. Rather than being able to climb back to contention immediately, they have sunk those chances.

Bottom Line

Karlsson is a top Offensive talent, good enough to have won several Norris trophies. However, he has always been more than a bit of a liability defensively. Point of fact, Letang has been better defensively than Karlsson, so if you Letang causes you to cringe in the defensive zone, Karlsson is going to take that feeling to a whole new level. In the end, despite all of the glitz and hype, at best, Karlsson only really changes the team from a cellar team to a bubble team at the cost of a serious delay in a rebuild.

I am not asking anyone to agree with me. Over the last 6 seasons, not too many people have agreed with me, they chose to agree with the Penguins’ GMs. So, it is what it is; a different point of view.

Addendum

Sorry, I forgot to talk about Salary Cap. Dubas only saved about $3 million in Cap space this season but added $10 million in Cap for 3 more seasons. You can argue that if Karlsson keeps putting up 100 points per season, it could be worth it but is that a real possibility? How more 100 point seasons do you really think a 33 year old RHD can put up, especially considering last season was his only one. Furthermore, as I mentioned above, with a full NMC, he isn’t going to be that easy to move, or at least to get value in return.