It has been quite a few seasons since I gave out mid-term grades. Since I don’t like to be subjective and hand out grades based on who I like and I haven’t had time to really look at the objective facts, I opted to not hand out opinions. Fortunately/Unfortunately, this season I started to keep better track of the stats so I could easily report how our individual players are performing compared to their peers across the league.
Before any howling among the fans begins, let me say that our Pittsburgh Penguins as a whole have a Points Percentage (Pts%) of 0.585 while the average team in the league has a Pts% of 0.571. If we were in school this would come out to a 76.8% or a solid C for their team and Coaches performance. Therefore, if the team is only playing at a C in terms of winning games, there are not a whole lot of As being handed out, particularly to the players getting the most ice time.
For a full discussion of how I came up with my grades, look to the bottom of the article. I didn’t want to bore those readers that don’t care about the math behind my grades.
Forwards
Some of our forwards are having really good individual seasons 5-on-5, compared to the league average. However, they seem to be doing it at the expense of team play, particularly in the defensive zone. Taking Sidney Crosby as an example, his personal PPts/60 and TGF/60 are well above the league averages, but in terms of team defense as represented by TGA/60 he has been on the ice for 3.00 TGA/60 while the league average is only 2.52.
Looking at Evgeni Malkin, he too has been having a really good individual season in terms of PPts/60 and TGF/60. Like his first line opposite Crosby, his TGA/60 dips a little, but no where as bad as Crosby’s TGA/60 drops. Malkin’s TGA/60 remains better than the league mean (2.28 vs 2.52). Perhaps Malkin’s defense numbers are better than Crosby’s due to the amount of time Crosby has played with Bryan Rust and Jake Guentzel who are struggling mightily this season. Regardless of the reasons, the on ice results show that everyone’s perceptions that Malkin is defensively a liability, especially compared to Crosby are little off this this season.
Now looking at Jason Zucker, who I have been a critic over the years, has been playing better than most of the other forwards. If I was like many other fans who cling to their subjectivity, I would still blind myself to the results I found. However, I only care about results and I have to shout out to Zucker as he too is having a good season.
| 5on5 | PP | PK | |
| Archibald, Josh | C- | – | A+ |
| Blueger, Teddy | F | – | A+ |
| Carter, Jeff | D- | A | C- |
| Crosby, Sidney | B | C- | – |
| Guentzel, Jake | B | C | – |
| Heinen, Danton | D | C | – |
| Kapanen, Kasperi | C+ | A+ | A+ |
| Malkin, Evgeni | B+ | C- | – |
| McGinn, Brock | D- | – | A- |
| Poehling, Ryan | C | – | C+ |
| Rakell, Rickard | C | B | – |
| Rust Bryan | D+ | D- | A+ |
| Zucker, Jason | B | D+ | – |
The Power Play
There are some players that have earned some As on the PP. Unfortunately, none of the players earning As play on the 1st PP unit. At least in my mind it calls into question our Coaching staffs ability to utilize players properly and put them in positions to succeed. I would certainly have made changes to the PP. I would certainly have substituted Rickard Rakell, Kasperi Kapanen, and Jeff Carter, for Jake Guentzel and Bryan Rust. I would want at least someone on the ice that could go to the net and take up some room.
Penalty Kill
Our PK has played pretty well and several of the PK artists have earned As. However, outside of Kapanen the best of the PK forwards don’t contribute much elsewhere. With the limited amount of time our Penguins play short-handed, I certainly would look for replacements for Teddy Blueger and Josh Archibald. If our Penguins get players contributing more at 5-on-5, since the team plays far more in this situation then they won’t need players posting As on the PK. The drop in PK could become irrelevant if the team has a large enough cushion from improved 5-on-5 play.
Defensemen
When compiling grades, it is often a good idea not to look at the name of a person until the actual score is known, to avoid bias. Like Zucker on Offense, I have been a frequent critic of Pierre-Olivier Joseph, mainly because of how skinny he is, but I must acknowledge his body of work. Despite his lack of an imposing frame, during the less physical regular season he is acquitting himself quite well. He is one of only 2 Defensemen who have earned a passing grade.
| 5on5 | PP | PK | |
| Dumoulin, Brian | F+ | – | C- |
| Joseph, Pierre-Olivier | B+ | C | – |
| Letang, Kris | D- | D- | A+ |
| Petry, Jeff | C- | D | A+ |
| Pettersson, Marcus | D | – | A+ |
| Ruhwedel, Chad | D- | – | A+ |
| Rutta, Jan | D | – | C- |
I read one particular Blogger bemoaning our 3rd line Center and suggesting that our GM Ron Hextall target a 3rd line Center before the trade deadline. First of all, the team has precious little in terms of assets to acquire a 3rd line Center. However, more importantly, the 3rd line Center position may be a bit of a problem but it is the Defense that is failing this team. Outside of Joseph and Jeff Petrie the team could trade out the rest of these Ruth Buzzi s and not materially affect the results of games in anyway but positive.
Goaltenders
Like our Defensemen, our Goalies have been an area of concern. To a lesser extent, their inconsistent play has contributed an average season. I have never been one to be so afraid of losing that I prevented myself from winning. I felt Filip Lindberg was the best Goalie in training camp and would have seriously considered using him as my starting Goalie. At worst I would have sent him down and to be the starting Goalie in Wilkes Barre Scranton (WBS) and rotated him back and forth to the big club when I could get him NHL experience like the back end of back-to-back series. Casey DeSmith would have only gotten playing time when I would have pulled Tristan Jarry or in games when I couldn’t get Lindberg to the arena.
Had I inserted Lindberg as starter at least in WBS, perhaps he would not be injured right now.
When looking at the numbers, it appears that the team insulates Jarry far more than DeSmith. When you control for degree of danger of shots, Jarry really is nothing more than a C, while DeSmith tends to pick his game up in PP and PK situations.
| 5on5 | PP | PK | |
| DeSmith, Casey | C+ | B+ | B+ |
| Jarry, Tristan | C | C | C+ |
From Where did the Grades Come
For Skaters, I looked at their individual performances in terms of Primary Points (Pts) per 60 minutes, where PPts equaled Goals (G) and Primary Assists (A’), Team Goals For per 60 minutes (TGF/60) and Team Goals Against per 60 minutes (TGA/60) at 5-on-5 and during the Power Play (PP). For the Penalty Kill (PK), since Short Handed Goals (SHG) are more of a random chance issue, I limited this to just TGA/60.
I then determined the Mean for Time on the Ice (TOI) for both the Forwards and Defense Separately and eliminated all players below 1 Standard Deviation of the Mean. I then determined the mean for all players across the league in each category and set that as 75% or a solid C. Finally I scaled the players graded by comparing their stats per 60 minutes with the league mean.
For Goalies I tried to eliminate the effect of poor defensive play in front of them averaging the Goalies Save Percentages (Sv%) at the 3 different shot types: High Danger (HD), Medium Danger (MD), and Low Danger (LD) at 5on5, and during the PP and PK. Then
More Tables
| 5on5 | IPPts | TGF | TGA | PP | IPPts | TGF | TGA | |
| Archibald, Josh | 5on5 | F | D- | A+ | PP | – | – | – |
| Blueger, Teddy | 5on5 | F | F | D | PP | – | – | – |
| Carter, Jeff | 5on5 | F | D | D | PP | A | A+ | A+ |
| Crosby, Sidney | 5on5 | A+ | A | D | PP | D | D- | A |
| Guentzel, Jake | 5on5 | A+ | A | D | PP | D | D | B+ |
| Heinen, Danton | 5on5 | C | F+ | D+ | PP | D | D | A+ |
| Kapanen, Kasperi | 5on5 | A+ | B- | F+ | PP | A+ | A+ | A+ |
| Malkin, Evgeni | 5on5 | A+ | B | B | PP | B | D+ | D+ |
| McGinn, Brock | 5on5 | D | F+ | D+ | PP | – | – | – |
| Poehling, Ryan | 5on5 | C | F+ | A+ | PP | – | – | – |
| Rakell, Rickard | 5on5 | D- | A | C | PP | B | C | A+ |
| Rust Bryan | 5on5 | D- | B- | F+ | PP | D | D+ | F |
| Zucker, Jason | 5on5 | A | B | C | PP | F | B+ | D+ |
| 5on5 | IPPts | TGF | TGA | PP | IPPts | TGF | TGA | |
| Dumoulin, Brian | 5on5 | F | D | F | PP | – | – | – |
| Joseph, Pierre-Olivier | 5on5 | B | A+ | A- | PP | B | A+ | F |
| Letang, Kris | 5on5 | F | D | D | PP | F | C | F |
| Petry, Jeff | 5on5 | F | B | C | PP | F | F | A+ |
| Pettersson, Marcus | 5on5 | F | C | D+ | PP | – | – | – |
| Ruhwedel, Chad | 5on5 | F | F+ | D- | PP | – | – | – |
| Rutta, Jan | 5on5 | F | C- | C- | PP | – | – | – |
| HDSv% | MDSv% | LDSv% | HDSv% | MDSv% | LDSv% | HDSv% | MDSv% | LDSv% | ||||
| DeSmith, Casey | 5on5 | D+ | A- | C | PP | A | A- | B | PK | B | B | B- |
| Jarry, Tristan | 5on5 | C | C+ | C | PP | C | C | C | PK | B | C+ | C |
Hey Coach,
I don’t even know where to start but simply to say ” you have compiled a heck of a lot of information here.Well done Sir ” !
A couple of points I find interesting. Goalies..I know better than to disagree with you on this, you being a former Net Minder yourself but I find it interesting that you rate De Smith higher than Jarry in terms of saves especially on the PK. Could this be due to the fact that Jarry plays against the better teams in the league and faces much better scoring chances ? Not all HDSv chances are equal. It depends who is shooting the puck. While Jarry is far from perfect I think he is the better Goal tender of the two.
Second point. You hit the nail tight on the head Coach when talking about Letang. Because he is Letang the fans have this hero worship of him and fail to see all the weaknesses in his game at his age.I bet you will get some push back on his rating but I agree with you. I definitely would not have signed him for 6 more years. Period !
My final point is and I believe this to be the MAIN ISSUE for the Pens. Goals against ,five on five !! As you said in a previous post”we are at the half way mark of the season and as a team we win about 50% of the time “. I agree and once again buried in that 5 on5 stat lies the reason we can not hold on to leads especially in the third period.
I too am surprised at the stats on PO Joseph..
Cheers
JIM
Hey Jim,
I am no fan of DeSmith. There may be something in what you say, quality of Shooter faced. There really wasn’t time for me to really go through and adjust numbers for Opponents faced as well as Team mates for all positions. However, Jarry never really impressed me either. His Sv% has always been padded by his defense. Even back when Murray as here, the team D always played tighter in front of him. He has always faced the lowest percentage of high danger shots of any Penguin Goalie and this season is no different. I am not saying Jarry stinks, just that he is not all that special, that is why he disappears in the playoffs – he is average. He certainly doesn’t rate much of a raise if any at all, nor does he rate a long term contract.
As I said, I would have considered risking playing a rookie Goalie as my starter. For the past 2 preseasons Lindberg has played the best of any Goalie in the Pre-Season but never got the chance to truly prove himself. He immediately got banished like so many other rookies.
As for Letang, you are right, sentimentality will rule in many fans minds. They will stomp their feet in anger. I am not going to argue if they say that his poor season may be due to his stroke. For all we know he had some TIAs leading up to the discovery of the problem as well as his father’s health may have been weighing on his min -. I don’t know how much those excuses could have affected his play, but as you note, his age, despite his conditioning as well as his TOI also have had to contribute greatly. More importantly, the reasons why are unimportant when grading. The bottom line is his play has earned those grades.
Your final point is most salient. One thing that I didn’t include in my stats above was the team’s 5on5 Goal Differential when our Pens were up by 1 Goal. As a team we have 18 TGF when up by 1 Goal and 17 TGA or +1.
Thanks Coach.
Great comments above.
The key to doing such an elaborate exercise as a mid season Report Card on the players and the team is that it brings clarity to the real issues.For me that simply being that we are not the team we used to be..,
Who ever the GM is, he has an almost impossible job of delivering us another Cup and yet maintaining the key personnel that the fans adore.. To which I reply.”They traded Wayne Gretzky in his Prime “….so.
Cheers
Jim
Hey Jim,
I hear you, I have always said for the right price I trade anyone. Unfortunately, GMs, to get contracts signed add No trade Clauses NTC and No Movement Clauses NMC. And our Penguins are littered with them.
Crosby – NMC
Malkin – 35+NMC
Guentzel – m-NTC (12 Teams)
Zucker 0 m-NTC (10 Teams)
Rust – NMC
Rakell – m-NTC (8 Teams)
Carter – 35+NMC
Dumoulin – m-NTC (10 Teams)
Letang – 35+NMC
Nothing is really impossible but it hamstrings a GMs options. On top of that Rust, Carter, Dumoulin, and Letang’s value has to be at all time lows. Barring some divine intervention, if our Penguins are still just hanging around that last Wild Card spot and not firmly in the playoff mix, I pray that management pulls the trigger and cleans house at the top at least the Coaches in Pgh and at least WBS, with maybe the GM and sells off whatever they can sell off for draft picks and prospects.
I say cleans house at the top because there is no use looking for prospects and going into the draft with the same crew that brought in the meager surrounding cast that we have and drafted Owen Pickering with their first 1st round pick in what seems like forever. If changes at the top aren’t made, then any trades and picks will still leave us where we are now nowhere, foundering
Hey Other Rick,
Wow…great stuff! Thanks so much for doing this!
It’s going to take me some time to digest all of this. But what strikes me is there are a whole lot of Ds and Fs being assigned…especially among the defense.
Yikes … 🙁
Rick
Hey Rick,
I wish things were different but our defense is well below the the league average in terms of G and/or points per 60 minutes. Perhaps it is a testament to Sullivan’s allergy to Physical defensemen with his concurrent love affair with Ice Capades dancers on D and trying to get his defensemen to jump up into the play rather than simply play the position they were hired to play.