I think everyone of regulars here on Penguin Poop know how much I love to play armchair GM for our Pittsburgh Penguins. I have done it pretty much since I started writing here. I love to give my unsolicited advice just before draft day, just before Free Agency (FA), and just before the trade deadline. Well, we’re closing in on the trade deadline, so it is that time again.
However, this time, I am going to up the ante a bit, I am not going to simply armchair GM, I am going over the GMs head. My advice is aimed at ownership, take this team in hand before the GM throws good money after bad.
For weeks upon weeks, I have read one talking head after another weigh in on what trades should be made to get the team ready for the playoffs. Each trade proposal highlighted a different weak area on the squad.
Center Weakness
Some pundits have discussed how weak our favorite flightless fowl are down the Center. They pointed out the ever-shrinking impact of our 3rd and 4th line Centers, Jeff Carter and Teddy Blueger and how invisible these players are on the score sheet. Yes, in Carter’s case they concede that he does win Faceoffs (FO) and in Blueger’s case he does play a solid defensive game, but neither is a threat to score and the object of a hockey game is to outscore your opponent.
Winning FOs is cool and the league leading in Points% Boston Bruins are overall in that department, behind the Chicago Blackhawks who are 2nd to last in the league in Points%. The team needs players that help them win games, not FOs.
Playing solid defense can help, so Blueger may not be hurting the team as bad as Carter but he has dropped down to the Zach Aston-Reese and Mark Jankowski level of offensive futility. At some point the team needs to be able to put points on the board to win.
I am not going to argue with the writers of those criticisms. All I am doing is pointing out that these 2 players represent 2 holes in the line-up.
Defense (less)
Many times, I have heard my partner in crime Rick Buker complain of how our Defense just stands around watching opponents take shot after shot. In a recent reply to another post here on Penguin poop I noted how both of our Penguins Goalies, Tristan Jarry and Casey DeSmith are subjected to repeated Rebound Attempts Against. Part of that is on those Goalies themselves. They must get better at rebound control. However, the defenseless defensemen Sullivan employs also must share in the blame. Our little boys of winter never eliminate opponents in front of their net. They should be charged an admittance fee rather than get a paycheck for their watching the game instead of playing it.
As a result of our diaper hockey defense, our Penguins give up the 5th most Shots Against per 60 minutes (SA/60) in 5 on 5 situations, giving up 32.54 SA/60.
I will give Kris Letang a pass, his horrendous start may have been tied to his stroke. He may have been having TIAs leading up to the stroke, but excluding him, only Pierre-Olivier Joseph has played anywhere near acceptable levels (and I am not fan of his lithe physique and fear what will happen to him should we make the playoffs). Management could scrap 2/3rds of this defense and not affect outcome appreciably.
When you add the 4 holes on defense to the 2 at center, that makes 6 bricks that this team is shy of a load.
Goaltending
Our Penguins number 1 Goalie, Jarry, is in his contract year and is struggling. He has played 27 games this season. In 9 of the games (or in other words 1/3 of his games) he has turned in sub 0.900 Save percentages (Sv%) and it gets worse from there. DeSmith has played 25 games and in 12 of them he has turned in sub 0.900 performances. At one time, this team was loaded with Goalies, now our best Goalie is average, and he can’t stay healthy.
Even if someone wants to consider the average good enough, with how fragile Jarry is this team needs more than a back-up, it needs a 1B Goalie and then a back-up.
No matter how you look at it, that leaves 2 more holes in the lineup, raising the total to 8 players the team will need.
Bottom 6 Wingers
It is hard to judge how bad our Bottom 6 Wings have played offensively, because our Centers down there have been so invisible. I may be willing to excuse their lack of offensive output if thet were exhausting themselves supporting their hapless Defensemen and beleaguered Goalies but they are not. The normally defensively responsible Kasperi Kapanen has been AWOL on both sides of the puck, and he isn’t the only one. Danton Heinen and Brock McGinn are struggling to keep opponents off the scoreboard. Kapanen and Heinen are both over 2.70 (2.78 and 2.71 respectively) in TGA/60 5-on-5.
McGinn isn’t as bad. His TGA/60 is 2.45, but his TGF/60 is an abysmal 1.67.
Three more holes on this roster, bringing us up to a total of 11 gaping holes on this roster. It looks like a wheel of swiss cheese
So, what is the punchline?
With 11 holes in Black-and-Gold lineup, there are way too many holes to think that this team can buy enough talent to make a difference in their playoff aspirations. There aren’t enough assets on a good team to fill even half that many holes. More to the point, if we had the assets to fill that many holes, chances are we wouldn’t have that many holes.
Now that we have eliminated being buyers at the Trade Deadline that only leaves 2 options, stand pat or sell.
Standing Pat?
The reality of the NHL is that as long as a team can be average, they will make the playoffs. Only 16 out of 32 teams will miss the playoffs. Therefore, half of the league makes it to the dance. As long as our Penguins can finish in the top 8 of the Conference, they can keep their playoff streak alive. And even though teams like the Buffalo Sabres and New York Islanders may be knocking on the door but our Penguins have the inside track, particularly with the number of games in hand they have.
To that end, I would understand if the Fenway Sports Group (FSG) opts to stand or fall with the team they have. There is some value in the prestige of a continuous playoff streak.
However, although I haven’t quite made my mind up as to how I feel, I am not leaning towards this option. I may still be willing to listen to arguments for not selling off yet, but my bias is elsewhere.
Selling?
Yes, gentle readers, I have seen too little from this team to think that it can do much more than be an also ran. That being said, there are at least 2 assets that could draw interest to a more hopeful team, a team full of the delusions to which many here in Pittsburgh may still cling, Jason Zucker and Tristan Jarry.
I am sorry Mike, I know you like Zucker, and quite frankly he is finally having the season all his supporters wanted to see from him since Jim Rutherford gave up a 1st round pick to get him. Unfortunately, he is now in his contract year like Jarry and can go UFA at the end of the season. Unlike Jarry, Zucker is playing like he wants a raise. Rather than risk losing him to FA I would suggest the team would be better off selling him and getting a draft pick or prospects to shorten the turnaround time back from pretender to contender.
Dan Kingerski of Pittsburgh Hockey Now has on a couple of occasions proselytized that the Penguins give Jarry a big raise on a long-term contract. Really? He still may have value on the open market for a team thinking he could be a 1B goalie to ensure them a deep playoff run but big raise on a long contract, that is a hard pass.
If I was sure I could sign Jarry to a short-term contract with a team friendly price tag, of course I would consider keeping him around as a bridge to Joel Blomqvist or Sergei Murashov but he may be more valuable as trade chip. Jarry should be able to bring back more in a trade than he can provide if he stays.
My of advice
Even if the FSG chooses to stand pat rather than sell, the common denominator to improving this team is change at the top. The team doesn’t need any other asset than money to bring in new coaches and a new GM to jump start the team.
This team is absolutely stale. Our coach is unimaginative and intractable, he refuses to change his strategies or personnel. Our Penguins are not necessarily as slow as they often look. Since other teams always know where our players are trying to push the puck, it makes it a whole lot easier for them to get there.
Furthermore, even if a player with size or grit is given a Penguins Sweater, our coach will not use him (Ryan Reaves?). It would be a useless gesture to try and trade for or draft that which this team needs more than anything else, a physical player.
Once the Coach and GM are changed out bring in a Coach who will be willing to see what Drew O’Connor can do as the 3rd line Center and Ryan Poehling as the 4th line Center, with maybe a kid like Filip Hållander filling in Poehling’s Wing position on that 4th line. Even if those kids don’t workout, the coach could still go back to the Carter and Blueger to finish the season out with their usual first round exit. However, at least this way, the team will still have draft picks.
Hey TOR,
Interesting stuff, but the reality is any GM in a playoff spot who would become a seller at deadline would be looking for a job the next morning. Penguins do have some moveable pieces, and some draft picks. Carter, Zucker, Kapanen, Heinen, McGinn, draft picks, Dumoulin and Blueger maybe. Who knows, maybe teams looking for depth or playoff experience. I don’t know if there is any value to any of them, but if we could pick up a bigger hustling 3rd-4th line player or two i believe that would leave the Pens with a decent playoff team. Not great, but anything can happen.
I do agree with many of your player assessments, but like Rick I saw the title and thought maybe you were going to have suggestions on how to build a better team for the playoffs not just tank it.
I did see someone posted stats on reddit and Pettersson’s D stats were surprisingly good.
Hey Phil,
You are right Phil, the reality of most teams in the NHL is that they are so afraid to lose that they continue on in mediocrity for years, slowly falling until they finally hit bottom. Few teams have the courage to make the smart play. But quite frankly, if ownership would try to dictate process and then hold me accountable for outcome, I would walk. If they would prefer to spend 10 years of a slow melt down to the cellar with the resulting slow climb back up to respectability I would rather not ne there taking the blame for someone else’s errors. I make enough of my own to want to shield someone else’s stupidity.
Of the players you mention, only Zucker would bring you back any real return and as I wrote, all you would succeed in doing is rob Peter to pay Paul.. Trade Zucker for a quality bottom 6, then you only have 5 top 6 forwards and you would still need at least 2 more bottom 6 forwards, 4 Defensemen, a 1B Goalie and a competent back up for when Jarry gets hurt and your 1B needs a backup.
You may be able to get JR to take Kapanen and possibly even swindle him for Prospects but you wouldn’t have room to get any player of value in return. Maybe you can get someone real playoff team looking for a Dman with playoff experience, to bite on Dumo, but again, since they are also fighting for Playoff contention they won’t be offering any immediate impact players, only prospects or picks.
McGinn and Heinen, you aren’t going to get an impact player for either of them. You may not even be able to get more than a mid round pick. They have been that underwhelming.
Blueger? well you could dress him up to a serious playoff contender as that insurance policy tough defender, but again, they will not be willing to give up an immediate impact player as they too will want those types for their own playoff run.
There isn’t enough lipstick to dress Carter up for anyone. At this point, your only selling point is his FO% but he carries a hefty price tag for a FO specialist.
No matter how a person looks at it, if they are looking at it honestly, there is no way to trade to improve this teams playoff fortunes.
Had Sullivan opted to play Puustenin with Crosby when Rust went ice-cold rather than screw up both the 1st and 2nd lines, maybe we could have found a top 6 Winger that could have either replaced a Zucker or Rust in the lineup so we trade one of them or used Puustenin himself as a trade chip, but since we failed to develop him, we have nothing.
If the coach would have the intestinal fortitude and wherewithal to sit Carter and Blueger like I suggest and see what O’Connor could do at 3rd line and what Poehling-Archibald-Hallander could do on 4th line, again, the team may have more options in front of it.
If this team could actually develop late round picks and players like it used to (Rust, Murray, Archibald, Sundqvist, Kuhnhackl, Sheary, etc) maybe we would have options in WBS to replace at least DeSmith. But we don’t.
It is not a very bright picture.
The only good news is that half the league makes the playoffs, so all we have to do is be average and our playoff streak continues. We won’t get out of the first round. We will get smoked by Boston or Carolina, but those willing to delude themselves will say again, like they have since 2018, “oh we were really close. if only the puck had bounced this way and that and the referee would have called those Penalties against our opponents and ignored those we committed.”
As for Pettersson, I didn’t see the reddit post, so I don’t know what they chose to consider, but when I did my mid term grades he was below the league average in personal primary points and team goals for and team goals against per 60 minutes of 5 on 5 play, and my eye test sees a Ruth Buzzi look-a-like, swinging his purse(stick) at opponents rather than setting them on their wallet in front of the net as opponents get to the fat and juicy rebounds that Jarry and DeSmith keep serving up.
There is a very good reason why when Rick B did his analysis of who the Pens beat, that they only beat non playoff contenders with any regularity and only sparingly win when faced by a good team, we aren’t good. And there is no quick fix to what ails us.
PS: It was an intentional bait and switch title.
Hey TOR,
I believe me knowing your Buzzi reference makes us old, still made me laugh tho. I believe a quick fix is move or sit the dead weight and let the young kids do their thing. This is pretty much any of the players i said were tradable. Just for fun I put them in order of their least usefulness this time. Carter, Kapanen, Zucker, Heinen, McGinn, Dumoulin and maybe Blueger.
It’s also time to toss Ruhwedel aside and have Ty Smith be the 7th or maybe 6th D. There are a lot of simple moves that bring the team up a notch. I was hoping to hear how you would actually try to improve on what we’ve got with trades, benching’s, and so forth. Basically let’s figure for the sake of argument that the Penguins are going to try to win the Cup. How would you go about that player wise, forget about your favorite parlay of firing the GM and Coach, but what would you do this season to get the best players on the ice using what the Pens have giving them the best chance. Realistically, play GM as if you want to keep your GM job also.
Hey Poopers, great article.
I love playing GM as well but I am undecided this season as what to do a the deadline.
Should Ron go for it and trade our 1st rounder for a rental? no I don’t think so. Because if the Penguins don’t make it, the pick could be pretty high.
I am leaning towards traded a couple UFAs , shed some salary. The return for Zucker and Dumolin, with possibly Teddy , could fetch some picks and prospects. Throw in Petterson and Kappy, and that would help out the cap situation for next season.
I just don’t know.
LET’S GO PEN’S
Hey Pens4Ever,
I did forget about Dumo, yes he would also be on my trade list for the deadline. I don’t think we could get much more than a mid round pick for him though.
Since Blueger, Pattersson and Kapanen are all still under contract, I wouldn’t push to trade them by the deadline, unless i could get JR to take a bite. Maybe package Pettersson and Kappy for Boesser and Podokolzn? That certainly would now give me wiggle room to trade Zucker for a legit LHD but I can’t see anyone, even JR, agree to that.
I could even see signing Valterri Pulli as a potential LHD, even though he is only 21 and unproven. However, as I mentioned, Sully would never play him, he is too young and too tough. He is liable to initiate contact on someone and get them to take a penalty. You know the only Penalty our coach will allow a player to take without benching the offender is a hooking penalty or a too many men on the ice penalty.
Hey everyone,
Just saw a post that our Pens are interested in a Finnish UFA Defenseman named Valterri Pulli. Now that is a UFA I would go after. He is listed as 6′-5″ 207lbs on Hockeydb and in the video highlight PHN references shows good O-skills which would make one think that the Sully may give him a chance. However, as I responded to PHN, Pulli is currently sitting out a 5 game disciplinary ban for a high hard hit he put on an opponent, Jantankanev, in a game between TPS and KooKoo of Liiga on Feb 2 this year.
As I said I would love to see the Pens grab a kid with his size and willingness to hit. the above physical incident was a play along the offensive boards at the blue line in an effort to keep the puck in.
The Ilanders are also interested in him. If I were his agent, I would tell him take the Islander deal, the Penguins will never let you play.
He can’t come to North America until Liiga ends in March.
Hey Coach,
I would like to add my 2 cents to your excellent over view of our Team . As I have said many times this team needs several new additions to be a true Cup contender.This boat has many leaks. I thought i was being tough when to myself i was figuring on a new Goalie, 3 new gifted D men, 3 new members to the bottom 6 and 1 more Big power left winger for Geno. After reading your post i think your number of 11 new additions may be more accurate than my 8 !!
The truth is 8 or 11, it does not matter because we will be lucky to afford 2 trades with talent !! . Which leads me to my main point.
Standing pat. Do nothing and pray for a miracle . That is what we have been doing since our last Cup win.
Consider these facts. Last year we drafted 21st over all. In 2020 we traded our pick away after our First round loss.. In 2019 we again drafted 21st. in 2018 we traded our first round pick away but had we kept it we would have drafted 22nd over all.
We are not gaining anything Coach. We are stuck in the mud and going no where. We are way past the day to stand pat.
The rest of the LEAGUE IS STARTING TO PASS US BY. We have no control what other teams choose to do. Talent does not stand still and real talent will find a way to rise to the top. .
Big name players are apparently getting high returns for their teams at trade dead line day as many teams this year are going all in.
For the right return I would trade Jake as Rick suggested awhile back. With the Cap not going up much next year we can not afford to resign Jarry to a big contract so you might as well move him to for the right price…
Thanks for letting me rant.
Cheers
Jim .
Amen Jim,
Not only aren’t we gaining anything, we aren’t even treading water. As I just wrote to Rick below, our Pens are at the precipice of a disaster of Biblical proportions. If they act shrewdly now, they may be able to roll with the on coming blow to ease the pain, but they can no longer avoid it. The opportunity retool was blown. This team will now have to suffer through a rebuild.
I like Guentzel, but as I have always said EVERYBODY is trade able in my book, at the right price. However, there is at least 1 stumbling block for that trade to take place, ego has blinded management to the truth and they aren’t ready to acknowledge that it is now desperation time. Trading Guentzel would be an admission this team is a rebuild.
Also, even though I would be willing to trade Guentzel if I were GM, my price would be high. The reason would be two-fold,
1) He can be very worth it on another team, a team with guts and grit, unlike his current team of pansies. He isn’t having the season we would want him to have, mainly because he has become every other team’s favorite punching bag. Opponents know they can beat him into the ice because the Penguins Coach will not allow anyone on this team defend him. On any other team, anyone trying to run Jake would have their heads handed to them, so only the most elite of goons would dare such an affront, but opposing coaches wouldn’t want risk playing any player not capable of keeping up with that line, against him, which would preclude the players willing to take the risk. On any other team, Guentzel may be chasing a 50 G season this year. But here he is a punching bag, too busy trying to dodge opponents dirty hits to fully focus on scoring.
2) The other reason I would set the price tag high for Guentzel is that he would represent many $$$$ in gate receipts and merchandising as I try and transition to the future. Jake is a player that is well liked throughout Penguindom and the team will need a face to ease the transition from the now rapidly closing Crosby-Malkin era. As you correctly remind us, there are two games being played, one on the ice and one at the box office/board room.
Therefore my asking price for Jake would have to either be a local kid like Cooley who could keep interest among the fans or a couple of young top line players to keep the team at least near the bottom wild card so the team doesn’t become irrelevant to the media.
Hey Other Rick,
I confess, when I saw the title of your article, I expected a fair amount of trade suggestions…lol. But what you wrote makes a lot of sense. Unless Hextall’s able to make the perfect pickup(s), it’s hard to imagine one or two small changes moving the needle on this team that much.
I get the sense that he’s trying to get everybody back and healthy so he can make a firm evaluation. The biggest stumbling block I see to improving the team is Carter. Sadly, because he played so well for us when he first got here, he’s just done, and he’s dragging the third line down with him. I can’t help but wonder what Kapanen could be doing with a decent center…I don’t think he’s played all that badly.
Can’t imagine anyone would be willing to bite on Carter unless we coughed up an asset to move him. The other decision is to sit him in favor of Drew O’Connor. Don’t know why Sullivan hasn’t at least considered this…the white elephant in the room. But Lord only knows why we make the decisions we do sometimes…
Rick
Hey Rick,
If I wanted to live in a dream world, there are players out there that I would love to see in a Penguins uniform. Unfortunately, reality bites. If our Pens had an area where they were deep with talent, then I could of/would of suggested a trade. However, in the real world, the only place the Penguins even have adequate depth is in their top 6.
Crosby, Malkin, and Rust have No Movement Clauses NMC, so they aren’t going anywhere unless they want to go. Even if you could trade one of them, or trade Guentzel, Zucker, or Rakell, all you would be doing is robbing Peter to pay Paul. You could shore up one of your weak areas by trading one of them but the top 6 would no longer be adequate.
Bottom line is there is nothing in the Penguins organization that they can afford to give up, except a first round draft pick, that anybody wants. And if Pickering is an example of how Hextall is going to use his 1st round draft picks, I would be okay with trading it, except we only have maybe this years and maybe next years to try and trade to fill gaping holes of this roster and that would be like putting a band-aid on an arterial bleeder.
The reality is management and too, too many fans have been looking in the rear view mirror and not paying attention to the road ahead and now we are inches away from a head on collision with the future.
Well said Coach. ….
This future no one is ready for……”No one.”
1. For the first time since i started to follow the Penguins there is NO MARIO. Despite all the nice words being said to the public, this team now belongs to someone else.
2. We are watching the start of the end of the Sidney Crosby era in Pittsburgh.( that is a mouth full..haha)
In about 27 months it will all be over….Maybe sooner….
3. The new owners are business men and not centered in Pittsburgh as Mario was and as such are profit driven. if this team starts to lose money just maybe we will NO LONGER be able to spend to the cap ceiling as before. Just ask the fans in Liverpool England what the FSG tried to do to their team when they first bought it ? The league stepped in and stopped it. All good now..All for $$$$…
4. This is a hard one for me to say to my dear USA friends, but because we have failed to get past the first Round of the play offs for the past several years and for all of the reasons above, players are more reluctant to come to a losing team in Pittsburgh. This is a real issue today and in the future.
5. We are not selling out like we used to… A winning season will fix that.
6. All Russian players in the NHL are here on a work Permit that is granted by the Russian State. They can be revoked at any time . That is why I pray for a peaceful resolution to the current situation.
Just a few thoughts on the “future.” of our beloved Pen’s.
Cheers
JIM