Penguins Trade Deadline: Armchair GMing?

I think everyone of regulars here on Penguin Poop know how much I love to play armchair GM for our Pittsburgh Penguins. I have done it pretty much since I started writing here. I love to give my unsolicited advice just before draft day, just before Free Agency (FA), and just before the trade deadline. Well, we’re closing in on the trade deadline, so it is that time again.

However, this time, I am going to up the ante a bit, I am not going to simply armchair GM, I am going over the GMs head. My advice is aimed at ownership, take this team in hand before the GM throws good money after bad.

For weeks upon weeks, I have read one talking head after another weigh in on what trades should be made to get the team ready for the playoffs. Each trade proposal highlighted a different weak area on the squad.

Center Weakness

Some pundits have discussed how weak our favorite flightless fowl are down the Center. They pointed out the ever-shrinking impact of our 3^rd and 4^th line Centers, Jeff Carter and Teddy Blueger and how invisible these players are on the score sheet. Yes, in Carter’s case they concede that he does win Faceoffs (FO) and in Blueger’s case he does play a solid defensive game, but neither is a threat to score and the object of a hockey game is to outscore your opponent.

Winning FOs is cool and the league leading in Points% Boston Bruins are overall in that department, behind the Chicago Blackhawks who are 2^nd to last in the league in Points%. The team needs players that help them win games, not FOs.

Playing solid defense can help, so Blueger may not be hurting the team as bad as Carter but he has dropped down to the Zach Aston-Reese and Mark Jankowski level of offensive futility. At some point the team needs to be able to put points on the board to win.

I am not going to argue with the writers of those criticisms. All I am doing is pointing out that these 2 players represent 2 holes in the line-up.

Defense (less)

Many times, I have heard my partner in crime Rick Buker complain of how our Defense just stands around watching opponents take shot after shot. In a recent reply to another post here on Penguin poop I noted how both of our Penguins Goalies, Tristan Jarry and Casey DeSmith are subjected to repeated Rebound Attempts Against. Part of that is on those Goalies themselves. They must get better at rebound control. However, the defenseless defensemen Sullivan employs also must share in the blame. Our little boys of winter never eliminate opponents in front of their net. They should be charged an admittance fee rather than get a paycheck for their watching the game instead of playing it.

 As a result of our diaper hockey defense, our Penguins give up the 5^th most Shots Against per 60 minutes (SA/60) in 5 on 5 situations, giving up 32.54 SA/60.

I will give Kris Letang a pass, his horrendous start may have been tied to his stroke. He may have been having TIAs leading up to the stroke, but excluding him, only Pierre-Olivier Joseph has played anywhere near acceptable levels (and I am not fan of his lithe physique and fear what will happen to him should we make the playoffs). Management could scrap 2/3rds of this defense and not affect outcome appreciably.

When you add the 4 holes on defense to the 2 at center, that makes 6 bricks that this team is shy of a load.

Goaltending

Our Penguins number 1 Goalie, Jarry, is in his contract year and is struggling. He has played 27 games this season. In 9 of the games (or in other words 1/3 of his games) he has turned in sub 0.900 Save percentages (Sv%) and it gets worse from there. DeSmith has played 25 games and in 12 of them he has turned in sub 0.900 performances. At one time, this team was loaded with Goalies, now our best Goalie is average, and he can’t stay healthy.

Even if someone wants to consider the average good enough, with how fragile Jarry is this team needs more than a back-up, it needs a 1B Goalie and then a back-up.

No matter how you look at it, that leaves 2 more holes in the lineup, raising the total to 8 players the team will need.

Bottom 6 Wingers

It is hard to judge how bad our Bottom 6 Wings have played offensively, because our Centers down there have been so invisible. I may be willing to excuse their lack of offensive output if thet were exhausting themselves supporting their hapless Defensemen and beleaguered Goalies but they are not. The normally defensively responsible Kasperi Kapanen has been AWOL on both sides of the puck, and he isn’t the only one. Danton Heinen and Brock McGinn are struggling to keep opponents off the scoreboard. Kapanen and Heinen are both over 2.70 (2.78 and 2.71 respectively) in TGA/60 5-on-5.

McGinn isn’t as bad. His TGA/60 is 2.45, but his TGF/60 is an abysmal 1.67.

Three more holes on this roster, bringing us up to a total of 11 gaping holes on this roster. It looks like a wheel of swiss cheese

So, what is the punchline?

With 11 holes in Black-and-Gold lineup, there are way too many holes to think that this team can buy enough talent to make a difference in their playoff aspirations. There aren’t enough assets on a good team to fill even half that many holes. More to the point, if we had the assets to fill that many holes, chances are we wouldn’t have that many holes.

Now that we have eliminated being buyers at the Trade Deadline that only leaves 2 options, stand pat or sell.

Standing Pat?

The reality of the NHL is that as long as a team can be average, they will make the playoffs. Only 16 out of 32 teams will miss the playoffs. Therefore, half of the league makes it to the dance. As long as our Penguins can finish in the top 8 of the Conference, they can keep their playoff streak alive. And even though teams like the Buffalo Sabres and New York Islanders may be knocking on the door but our Penguins have the inside track, particularly with the number of games in hand they have.

To that end, I would understand if the Fenway Sports Group (FSG) opts to stand or fall with the team they have. There is some value in the prestige of a continuous playoff streak.

However, although I haven’t quite made my mind up as to how I feel, I am not leaning towards this option. I may still be willing to listen to arguments for not selling off yet, but my bias is elsewhere.

Selling?

Yes, gentle readers, I have seen too little from this team to think that it can do much more than be an also ran. That being said, there are at least 2 assets that could draw interest to a more hopeful team, a team full of the delusions to which many here in Pittsburgh may still cling, Jason Zucker and Tristan Jarry.

I am sorry Mike, I know you like Zucker, and quite frankly he is finally having the season all his supporters wanted to see from him since Jim Rutherford gave up a 1^st round pick to get him. Unfortunately, he is now in his contract year like Jarry and can go UFA at the end of the season. Unlike Jarry, Zucker is playing like he wants a raise. Rather than risk losing him to FA I would suggest the team would be better off selling him and getting a draft pick or prospects to shorten the turnaround time back from pretender to contender.

Dan Kingerski of Pittsburgh Hockey Now has on a couple of occasions proselytized that the Penguins give Jarry a big raise on a long-term contract. Really? He still may have value on the open market for a team thinking he could be a 1B goalie to ensure them a deep playoff run but big raise on a long contract, that is a hard pass.

If I was sure I could sign Jarry to a short-term contract with a team friendly price tag, of course I would consider keeping him around as a bridge to Joel Blomqvist or Sergei Murashov but he may be more valuable as trade chip. Jarry should be able to bring back more in a trade than he can provide if he stays.

My of advice

Even if the FSG chooses to stand pat rather than sell, the common denominator to improving this team is change at the top. The team doesn’t need any other asset than money to bring in new coaches and a new GM to jump start the team.

This team is absolutely stale. Our coach is unimaginative and intractable, he refuses to change his strategies or personnel. Our Penguins are not necessarily as slow as they often look. Since other teams always know where our players are trying to push the puck, it makes it a whole lot easier for them to get there.

Furthermore, even if a player with size or grit is given a Penguins Sweater, our coach will not use him (Ryan Reaves?). It would be a useless gesture to try and trade for or draft that which this team needs more than anything else, a physical player.

Once the Coach and GM are changed out bring in a Coach who will be willing to see what Drew O’Connor can do as the 3^rd line Center and Ryan Poehling as the 4^th line Center, with maybe a kid like Filip Hållander filling in Poehling’s Wing position on that 4^th line. Even if those kids don’t workout, the coach could still go back to the Carter and Blueger to finish the season out with their usual first round exit. However, at least this way, the team will still have draft picks.