I was perusing other hockey sites the other day as I’m wont to do. Of course, much of the chatter revolved around our proposed deal for Sharks Norris Trophy winner Erik Karlsson.
I came across a comment that gave me pause to ponder while providing the inspiration for this article.
After duly noting Karlsson’s brilliant 101-point season in 2022-23, the likes of which haven’t been seen in the NHL for decades, the writer asked if we could reasonably expect that level of output from the mercurial 33-year-old defenseman again, or if it would prove to be an outlier.
Wow. Talk about snapping things into perspective…and perhaps pouring some cold water on our fevered expectations.
To get a clearer picture of what we might expect, I decided to look at Karlsson’s numbers after he joined the Sharks in a blockbuster trade back in September 2018. Over a four-season span prior to last year’s breakout, the quicksilver defender tallied 142 points in 211 games. That works out to roughly 55 points per full 82-game season.
Certainly not shabby. But not blow-your-doors-off spectacular, either.
Embedded in those 142 points was a grand total of 27 goals…only two more than he scored last season alone. Again, to provide some perspective (or splash more cold water), the player he’ll most likely be traded for, Jeff Petry, scored 42 goals during that span. Kris Letang…48.
Karlsson had health issues to be sure, most notably a groin injury in 2019 that required surgery. And much has been made about the fact that Erik the Great and fellow backline stud Brent Burns did not co-exist easily…nor especially like each other according to rumors. It’s probably no coincidence that Karlsson’s numbers skyrocketed after the Sharks dealt Burns to Carolina last summer (and for a decidedly underwhelming return to boot.)
Still, past performance raises legit questions about what we’d be getting if a trade went through. To say nothing about a potential clash with Letang vis-à-vis Burns over shifting roles and ice time. As they say, there’s only one puck to go around. Would it lead to too much deferment, especially on the power play? A problem that already exists. (You take the puck, Sid. No Geno, you take it, I insist. Hey, let’s give it to Tanger.)
We need a take-charge presence on the power play a la Phil Kessel, something Karlsson’s more-than-capable of providing. However, exemplary team man that he is, would it privately ruffle Letang’s feathers to be placed in a potentially lesser role?
Then there’s the not-small-matter of d-zone play. For all his offensive brilliance, Karlsson is a minus-103 for his career. (By comparison, Paul Coffey was a plus-298, Larry Murphy a plus-197 and Sergei Gonchar a plus-33.) While most metrics mavens will tell you plus-minus is meaningless and point out (rightfully so) that Erik has played on his share of weak teams, the stat can’t be totally disregarded.
With the notable exception of ’12-13, he’s consistently ranked in the bottom portion (sometimes near the bottom) of the league among defensemen in 5v5 goals against and expected goals against according to Evolving Hockey. Based on a study by Corey Sznajder, over the past three seasons (including ’22-23) he’s in the red in most d-zone microstats except for d-zone retrievals. And JFresh rates him a 0 (out of a possible 100) in even strength defensive WAR.
Obviously, Pens president of hockey ops Kyle Dubas isn’t pursuing the three-time Norris Trophy winner for his defensive impact. Either Ryan Graves or Marcus Pettersson should provide a reliable safety net as a partner should Karlsson become black-and-gold property.
So what could we reasonably expect from Karlsson? Best-case scenario, and this is pure speculation, I’d say something along the lines of an 18-goal, 70-point season, a mark he’s reached five times in his career but only once in the past six. That’s if he stays injury-free.
If not, his numbers could tumble as they did in San Jose.
I’m not saying acquiring Karlsson wouldn’t be worth the gamble. He’d give our transition game and power play a huge boost, while adding a new drawing card for our fans.
I would caution against viewing him as some sort of super man savior who’ll cure all of our ills singlehanded.
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Again great article..
I am on the fence about Karlsson, yeah his plus/ minus isn't great, but his teams weren't either.
Will he help?
Yes.... 1. Obviously on the PP
2. Depending what goes to San Jose, could help clear some cap space.
3. Ticket sales, maybe a season sell out Again?
But is he enough to get us to the playoffs? I don't know. Ottawa, Detroit, Buffalo, will be better, Islanders and maybe Washington will there and maybe Columbus surprises everyone.
I read a rumor the Petry has used his NMC to block a trade with San Jose, because he wants to stay close to Michigan , his home.
Thanks Pens4ever!
Would Karlsson be enough to get us over the hump and push us into the playoffs? Like you, I'm not sure. Just as you mentioned, other teams are on the rise. Our bottom six may be better defensively, but honestly I don't know if we'll get a whole lot more offense out of these guys than last season's group. And...perhaps my biggest concern...what happens if Sid and Geno don't stay injury free?
It wouldn't surprise me if Petry blocked a trade to San Jose. The reason he consented to coming to Pittsburgh was that it's closer to his home (Michigan?). Which means if we move him, it'll likely involve a third team like Detroit or Chicago. The Red Wings have $7.3 million in cap space, the Hawks (perhaps a more likely suitor) $12.8 million.
We'll see how this all plays out.
Rick
Hey Rick,
I am going to say it again, A Karlsson trade would be a disaster. San Jose is asking way too much to make a Karlsson trade anything but a disaster. I seriously pray that all of the Karlsson rumor garbage (and that is all it is garbage) is on the part of the San Jose fans looking to get rid of the RHD and the proverbial PT Barnum pigeons of Pittsburgh who are just dying to get hoodwinked for another season.
Rick and The Other Rick
I respectfully disagree with adding Karlsson to the Pens lineup. Again, as you two know I'm not a
numbers guy at all and to me his stats and defensive play are drastically impacted by
playing for a horrible team. I think we all remember the bashing Matheson and Gudbranson
took from fans and media regarding "NUMBERS" and I would say both players proved them
to be wrong, and not just a little wrong. I would take Karlsson over Letang everyday of the week.
Letang's been playing with Crosby his entire career and scored a career high this year with 68pts,
Karlsson has bested the 68pt total 5 times and that's without playing on a Power Play with Malkin
and Crosby. If the Pen's do aquire him and put him on the 1st PP unit IMO he would be somewhere
around the 90pt mark. Not to mention he's 3yrs younger than Letang. To me the trade is a no
brainer if we can rid ourselves from some dead wood and cap space.
I hear ya Mike.
Karlsson certainly would be an intriguing add, and I'd be especially interested to see what kind of impact he'd have on the power play.
We really haven't had a legit quarterback on the point since Justin Schultz departed and someone capable of running the whole show since Phil Kessel was traded. Letang operates more like a rover and has never been an especially good puck distributor, at least on the pp.
Just not sure about the 90 points, especially given Erik's overall history with the Sharks. I know there were issues, but he had less than 10 goals in three of those seasons, including a low of three in '18-19.
He certainly would add some excitement and another volatile talent to the mix.
Rick
Rick
I believe in the seasons your referring to his overall point totals were affected by
the number of games he played.
In the seasons where he played in the majority of the games his stats for the most
part were impressive.
I'm thinking Dubas might be looking at the big picture. Karlsson adds another asset
to the Pen's lineup and if it doesn't work out you always have the trade deadline and
a chance to grab draft picks and possibly a few young prospects. As you know teams
over-react and would pay dearly to add Karlsson if their in contention to make a run
at the Cup.
I understand your concerns and from what I've read both Letang and Crosby have
put there stamp on bringing him in the fold.
Hey all.
On the absolute flip side of the defensive coin, Hooks Orpik on Pensburgh published a brief article including a video showing highlights of Darius Kasparaitis.
Dear Lord, could Kaspar hit! Imbedded somewhere in there I'm sure is a hit on ex-Pens teammate Petr Nedved, who'd forced a trade to the Rangers following a holdout. Darius just crushed him along the wall. Maybe the hardest hit I've ever seen...even harder than his infamous demo job on Eric Lindros. I felt sorry for poor Petr!
Goodness, was Kasparaitis tough. Just a destructive hitter. With few exceptions, they don't make 'em like that any more...
Rick
Rick
They definitely don't make them like Kasparaitis anymore. I would give anything to
have two players on my team like Darius and Ulf Samuelson patrolling the blueline.
Man, that would be fun to watch and just what the current Pen's team needs.