Penguins Update: Will Depth Scoring Be an Issue?

I had planned to write an article about our bottom six when I noticed Dave Molinari of Pittsburgh Hockey Now beat me to the punch (Here’s the Early Bottom Line on the Penguins’ Bottom-Six). But I figure, what the heck, the more the merrier. Here’s my take.

Through their first three games of the new NHL season, our Penguins have compiled some intriguing offensive stats. We’ve tallied 11 goals for a healthy average of 3.67 per game. Maintain that pace for a full season? We’d finish with exactly 300 goals, a mark exceeded by only the high-powered Oilers and Bruins last season.

However, it’s who’s doing the scoring that really grabbed my attention. All of our goals have come from our first and second lines.

As for our bottom-six forwards and defense? They’ve combined for zero, zip, nada goals.

In terms of points, 23 of our team total of 30 have been amassed by our top-six. Our defense has registered six points, all assists, three by Kris Letang. Our bottom-six forwards, a lone assist by Lars Eller.

Wowser.

It goes without saying that our top-six hot streak, great as it’s been, isn’t likely to continue. Positively torrid, Bryan Rust is tickling the twine on 30 percent of his shots. Sidney Crosby, who likewise has three goals, has a gaudy 27.3 shooting percentage. At 16.7 percent, Reilly Smith is well above his career average of 12.4 percent. Only Evgeni Malkin (13.3 percent) and Jake Guentzel (11.1 percent) are sniping at or near sustainable rates.

Nor can we continue to rack up the W’s if our bottom two lines and defense don’t chime in with at least an occasional goal. Last season those groups combined for 90 of our 261 non-shootout goals, or 34 percent, while contributing a shade over a goal per game. And that was considered substandard. Obviously our current bottom-six and defense have a ways to go to match that modest mark.

It’s just a matter of time before our defense finds the range. Erik Karlsson (25) and Letang (12) combined for 37 goals last season, and Ryan Graves (8 goals in ’22-23) is no slouch offensively. But our third and fourth lines have to be a bit of a concern.

Eller’s been a consistent 12-to-15-goal man and Jeff Carter certainly knows where the net is. However, both are fading as offensive threats. Noel Acciari and Matt Nieto have had their share of single-digit seasons in terms of goal production. Drew O’Connor displays plenty of promise, but as of now is still a bit of an unknown quantity. And Jansen Harkins has yet to establish himself offensively at the big-league level.

Although we have options at Wilkes-Barre/Scranton with the likes of Vinnie Hinostroza, Colin White and Radim Zohorna, their track records aren’t necessarily better than the guys they’d be replacing. And while Valtteri Puustinen has certainly displayed a scoring touch, he may not be the ideal candidate for checking-line duty.

Any way you slice it, secondary scoring is likely to be an issue.

The good news? While they aren’t lighting the lamp, our bottom six is doing the job defensively. The Eller line has been on the ice for only one 5v5 goal against, Acciari’s unit…none.

Hopefully, the offense will come as guys settle in and get to know each other.

Stars Shining

On the flip side of the equation, our stars are shining. None more brightly than Malkin.

My goodness, has Geno been impressive thus far! Looking anything but long in the tooth, the 37-year-old’s been flying around the ice to the tune of two goals and six points in his first three games.

Credit Smith with helping more than a bit. The newcomer’s been playing a north-south game and finding open ice, which encourages Malkin to embrace a driving, straight-line style as well. That’s when he’s at his dynamic and forceful best.

In fact, with Smith and Rickard Rakell on his flanks, Geno may be blessed with his best set of wingers since he centered the lethal Steel City Line for Chris Kunitz and James Neal during his MVP season in ’11-12. His current line’s been dominant at times, as their collective Corsi of 58.4 will attest. They’ve outshot the opposition, 29-16, and outscored ‘em, 4-0, in 5v5 play.

I couldn’t be happier for Geno. And I, for one, am very glad he didn’t test the free-agent waters last season, when he felt devalued to the point of alienation by former GM Ron Hextall.