For more than a decade, the Pittsburgh Penguins were one of the NHL’s most dominant franchises. With stars like Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin leading the way, the team captured three Stanley Cups in a span of just eight years. However, over the past few seasons, the Penguins have struggled to maintain their winning ways. Some of the reasons are more obvious then others, but lets go over them.
Aging Roster
One of the biggest factors contributing to the Penguins decline is the age of the roster and that’s no big secret. Crosby, Malkin, and Letang who have been the face of the franchise for over a decade, are in their mid-30s. While they are still productive players and seem to show no signs of slowing, it will come, but the rest of the team is not Crosby, Letang, or Malkin, not even close.
The average age of the current Penguins roster is 29.8; yikes. For a team that’s supposed to play a speed game, it’s hard, if not impossible, to do that with a senior home roster. If the Penguins adopted a more Islanders style of play, I think this group would be much better suited and would probably have a few more wins under their belt, but Sullivan is set on playing a speed game with defensemen that activate.
On top of that Hextall had the opportunity to add some much needed youth, or a goaltender, but decided to add his own kind of youth! Hextall got some guys from the Cretaceous instead of the Jurassic! What a treat!
So yes, there’s some excessive sarcasm there, but adding a piece like Mikael Granlund made no sense unless you wanted to waste cap, get a guy who passes and doesn’t focus on scoring, which is what they needed with depth, and he’s 31, then sure it makes sense if you’re trying to make your team worse. Hell, why not bring back Jaromir Jagr?
He also brought in defensemen Dimitry Kulikov(32) and brought back Nick Bonino(34), and while these are decent adds, you’re telling me you couldn’t find younger versions of what these guys do? or were you trying to please Sullivans love for veterans.
Coming into the trade deadline the Penguins needed to get older, slower, less committed to forechecking, shittier defensively, worse at scoring goals, and less flexible against the cap.
— JFresh (@JFreshHockey) March 2, 2023
Mission accomplished
Lack of Depth
Another issue facing the Penguins is a lack of depth on the roster. While the core of Crosby, Malkin and Letang are still productive players, they cannot do it all on their own. The team has struggled to find consistent secondary scoring, their defense has been more than suspect at times, and goaltending has been embarrassing for them.
Bryan Rust is in a slump in comparison to his last season, and Jeff Carter is just embarrassingly washed up. He did manage to net two goals vs Colorado, which is big and much needed, but against Montreal, he was a -4 with only 8:28 TOI, I know that is due in part to bad goaltending, but no matter what that is absolutely unacceptable and he should of been a scratch next game, but god forbid Sullivan bench a veteran like Jeff Carter.
One of the most telling statistics for a player’s performance is their Corsi For percentage (CF%). Corsi For is a statistic that measures the total number of shot attempts (on net, missed, or blocked) a team takes while a player is on the ice, compared to the total number of shot attempts their opponents take. CF% is expressed as a percentage, and a player with a CF% above 50% indicates that their team is taking more shot attempts than their opponents while that player is on the ice.
According to Natural Stat Trick, Jeff Carter’s CF% this season is 43.0%, indicating that the Penguins are taking fewer shot attempts than their opponents while he is on the ice. Additionally, his expected goals for percentage (xGF%) is 44.5%, which means that he is not generating high-quality scoring chances when he is on the ice. Not to mention, again he got a -4 in 8 minutes, that just still amazes me that was even possible, I don’t want to say at least it can’t get any worse, because it absolutely could.
Speaking of much needed scoring, or lack thereof, Mikael Granlund has 2 points in 11 games since being traded to the Penguins, he’s basically invisible out there. Now I want to make it clear, I actually love Granlund as a player, he just makes zero logical or practical sense on this Penguins roster. He was also playing top 6 in Nashville, but in Pittsburgh he’s 3rd liner and you’re expecting 60 point production with him playing next to worse players and getting less TOI? Please…
Coaching Issues
I want to stress Mike Sullivan is one of the greatest Pittsburgh coaches (I can hear Penguin Poop writer The Other Rick yelling at the screen now). I do truly believe that, but it doesn’t matter if I believe it, because the stats don’t lie; 301-160-55 with a .637 winning percentage, and really the only statistic that matters, two stanely cups.
But Sullivan will not adapt, his stubbornness reminds me of Pittsburgh coaches before him just before Penguins management packed their bags and drove them to the airport. He wants to play a speed game, and as I stated before that does not work with this group of players. He has some sort of obsession with older veteran players who are not fast, and don’t work with the system he wants to play, maybe he prefers that they will just follow his system and not go off during a game stray from the system, as some younger players tend to do, but perhaps that’s exactly what they need.
When he won two Stanley cups with the Penguins, he had young players from Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, as well as some veteran players, a hybrid composition. Yet, in his mind, it seems he thinks he won with vets & speed, and he’s somehow blanked out the “young” part that went along with the “speed” part.
Another obsession with Sullivan is his unwillingness to not have the defense activate and lead to needless breakouts and 2 on 1’s. His group of defensemen outside the first line, are not good or the type of defensemen who can activate. If you add players like Jan Rutta and Dmitry Kulikov, use them correctly only send them out as defensive defensemen, have them hit and block, have them wear down the other team. Not try and be Kris Letang, because you’re asking the impossible of them and not playing to their strengths.
Goaltending
Not to long ago it seemed as though moving forward with Tristan Jarry as the starter was the best move. At the time it was, and technically still is, but Tristian Jarry especially after coming back from injury and now injured again, was atrocious. Against the Montreal Canadians, he had an incredibly bad .429 SV%, he followed that with a decent .912 SV% against the Rangers, just to fumble to a .765 SV% the next Rangers game.
Just when it seemed he was returning a bit to his regular form with his .933 SV% win against the Avalanche, he injured himself again. He is becoming a band-aid boy, hurt way to much and when he comes back he plays worse than a 3rd stringer. He isn’t reliable in any aspect, from stopping simple shots or from getting injured, or choking in key games to pressure.
If the Penguins have hopes of capturing at least one more Stanley Cup they are not going to do it with Casey DeSmith as the 1A, it just isn’t going to happen. That being said Casey DeSmith has done fantastic for what has been asked of him, but eventually the inevitable will happen and the house of cards will tumble down.
The Penguins need to get a real backup, either a vet or a guy who is known to be able to handle a starting job, Hextall had the opportunity to do that but clearly does not see goaltending as an issue. And that in and of itself is an issue.
Conclusion: Can they win one more?
I will never bet against a team that has Sydney Crosby, let alone also having Malkin & Letang. Do I think they could win one more? Short answer yes, for the above reason, do I think they can win this year? No, but I’ll give them a 10% chance in case of a miracle situation and it would be a miracle, and it would mostly be because of Crosby if not entirely.
To change this team to have a chance while the core is still competitive, the first piece off the board is Hextall, and if Sullivan won’t adapt him as well, Jeff Carter has got to go but I don’t think anyone would take him, goaltending and defense are needed, then add some grit and you might have one more shot, but getting all that is a lot to ask of a new GM.
In conclusion, while the Pittsburgh Penguins have been a dominant franchise for many years, the team is currently in decline due to a number of factors, including aging players, a lack of depth, coaching issues, salary cap constraints, and tough competition in their division. It remains to be seen if the team can turn things around and regain its winning ways, but it will likely require significant changes and adjustments to the roster and coaching staff.
Hey Caleb,
Welcome back to the writing side of the blog. Great post! As we have talked I agree with a lot of what you say.
1) The average age of the Pens roster may be 29.8 but it gets worse when you look at who gets chosen to be on the ice. The average age of any skater at any given moment on the ice has been 30.4. It would even be worse than that if not for injuries. Since the trade deadline, the youngest Center, among those 4 Centers that the team would prefer to play would be 34. The youngest RHD would be 32. We aren’t talking oldest we are talking youngest players at those positions. Sullivan’s choice for 7th Defenseman is also 32. The museum pieces on this roster may be quaint and academically interesting to view in the static setting of the Carnegie but to watch them in the fluid, dynamic environment of an ice hockey rink is a different story.
Like you, I am not complaining about Crosby and Malkin, or even Letang, since he is being treated properly, medically. However, the idiocy of surrounding an older core with an even older supporting cast is what makes this incarnation of flightless fowl sad.
2) Lack of depth. Not going to argue on who you called out, Rust, Carter, and Granlund have certainly contributed to a dearth of 2ndary scoring. I understand that a lack of time and space limit who you could talk about, but also wouldn’t have argued against a more extensive list of players.
In Rust’s case, a couple of quick points, going forward this season, Rust will be in uncharted waters. He has never played more than 72 games in a season. His typical season has him getting injured early on and then, when he comes back, taking off like a bat out of the proverbial, in terms of scoring. Secondly, as I have written many times before, when he went ice cold, the team have brought up a kid like Puustenin to replace in a top 6 role while moving Rust down to the bottom 6, but our Coach seems content being an archaeologist digging up fossils. (I know Mike Puustenin is small, but he could have been a trading chip at some point had he been given a chance to put up numbers at that time)
In Carter’s case, if I buy the lame excuse that Sully is being forced to play Carter, then I would also be susceptible to purchasing prime swamp land in Florida. First, Hextall is the clown that gave Sullivan a 3 year extension when the man couldn’t get out of the 1st round the last 4 seasons. Second, Freidman is also a Hextall man and Freidman is always the 1st man shipped off to WBS, regardless of who is playing far worse than him. Carter’s existence in Sullivan’s tool box may be on Hextall, but Carter stealing TOI from other possible players is all on Sully.
Granlund, that is all on Hextall and the moronic shopaholic mind set that all the starry-eyed GMs have at the trade deadline. The grass is most certainly not always greener on the other side of the fence. Furthermore, on a team on the rise, trading draft picks for older veterans to calm down young bucks makes sense but on an aging roster, on a once proud team, now in decline, the throwing more good money (draft picks) after bad, is shear lunacy. What is it that Kenny Rogers sang – “You got to know when to hold them, know when to fold them, know when to walk away, know when to run”. It is well past time to walk away.
3) Let’s talk Sullivan. I know you only said one of the best and not the best Penguins Coach, however, the romanticizing of this clown does grate on me. If someone wants to argue that his speed game caught the league by surprise in 15-16, I get it. Before that and since then Sullivan has been seriously problematic. To that end, let’s look at some results of Sully and maybe other Penguins Coaches,
Sans Crosby and Malkin, when Sullivan coached Boston, his regular season Pnts% was 0.543, his post-season W% was 0.429 and he was FIRED. In his 8 years in Pittsburgh, Sullivan’s regular season Pnts% is 0.629 and his post-season W% is 0.537 while Dan Bylsma in 6 season had a regular season Pnts% of 0.668 and his post-season W% was 0.551. Sullivan may be better than Mike Johnston or Johnny Wilson but NO Sullivan is no guru.
Sullivan was lucky enough to fall into the Penguins Coaching position and rode on the coattails of some HoF players, end of story.
4) Goaltending; Leaving MAF exposed to the expansion draft and looking toward the Future with Matt Murray made sense at the time. Moving on from Murray in favor of Trsitan Jarry when Murray wanted a $6.25 million contract also made sense (one of the rare times the team did what I suggested and traded him for the 2nd round pick that became the player I wanted – Blomqvist). But it is now time to move on from Jarry unless he is willing to accept a status quo contract of about $3.5 Mil. That is all he is worth right now.
As for DeSmith, I have beat that horse with Phil and Rick ad nauseum. Suffice it to say, I would be checking out Gauthier right now (I think Lindberg is hurt, again – haven’t seen him play a game in a while. He appears to be as fragile as Jarry). DeSmith has only done a fantastic job if you feel turning in sub 0.900 Sv% games in 15 of 36 appearances is fantastic. In the world of teams contending for a Cup, that is check the waiver wire performances. Those sub 0.900 performances no doubt contributed greatly to DeSmith’s 14 – 15 – 4 well below fantastic record.
Thanks Rick!
As for Rusy I think him playing more than as opposed to him usually getting injured can in part have an impact but not enough for his current numbers. He’s not even on his normal point pace, he’s in a weird slump that I can’t put my finger on what the problem is, maybe it’s the team, in general, impacting his play.
I think Sullivan’s numbers look good, to be honest, Boston and Penguins, though he did inherit a better Pens roster than a Boston one haha. He’s definitely out of touch with his current roster and it’s about time to move on from him, him getting fired from Boston doesn’t mean much to me, as pretty much every coach gets fired at some point, some coaches just need to find a team they mesh with the best until they retire, and the pens ain’t gonna be the team that Sully retires with.
Nothing to say about Hextall really, he stinks and as Mark Madden says “He’s gots to go….he’s gatsss ta gooooo.”
Hey Caleb,
Someone most recently tried defending Sully by asking the question who would you get to replace Sully? and followed up by saying that every Coach out there has been fired at least once and asked do you really want someone else’s cast off. The problem with these progression of questions and statements is that it is self defeating. Sully himself was FIRED for cause, for having a less than desired record. As I noted sans Crosby and Malkin, Sully’s numbers do not look very good, and unless he can land the job in Edmonton or some other top team, his numbers will crash down like they did in Boston. His side show strategy has been analyzed and countered and Sully has no plan B. if he stays on his course he become Captain Queeg for the Penguins repeating over and over again his version of “it was the strawberries, it was the strawberries”, “next man up, next man up”
Fate smiled upon him, he was at the right place at the right time and now Penguins fans moon over him and romanticize his importance to the history of the team.
Hey Caleb,
I didn’t even see you sneak this in there I was busy harassing TOR lol. Interesting stuff, I agree with you just about everything. Thing I differ on, I don’t believe Sully is as big of a veteran lover as everyone says. I believe he is a victim of what is put in front of him and wanting to keep his job. The guy who made the brilliant move to sign Carter to a 2 year no movement contract is also the guy that can end Sullivan’s days in the ‘burgh. Play Carter keep your job. The other thing is I don’t believe the big 3 will win a Cup together again. I’m content to ride them into the sunset, they deserve it. If we do get a little excitement from a series win or two that would be great. I can wait for the next great iteration of the Pens.
Hey Phil!
Yea I snuck in here, might sneak in a few more haha!
I think the fact that Sully was giving a guy like Carter so much TOI even when it not only statistically impacted the team negatively but also literally failed an obvious eye test says everything to me.
But you’ll have no argument from me on Hextall being a vet lover and giving his buddies deals, that should be a fireable offence right there.
I think and from what I’ve heard Hextall knows he’s fired, I don’t think it will be Hexy who fires Sully, because there will be no Hextall next year to do any firing. Now FSG may clean house including Sully, but If I had to guess they would give him one more season but on a short leash.
If we start struggling in the early going of next season? Good bye, cya later.
I also agree that I don’t think the core will win another one, but I hold out some hope as a fan, and in my belief in Syndey Crosby, I think you should never count out a guy like Crosby or underestimate him.
And as for the next great iteration, I hope there is one, you only get so many times to get magical generational talent, or you can waddle and slip in the mud forever, case in point “Toronto”.