Wow. It’s sure been a whirlwind couple of days for our Penguins, hasn’t it?
I’ll say this for Kyle Dubas. He definitely seems to have a plan and he sure ain’t afraid to roll the dice and make a move. Quite refreshing, and in stark contrast to former GM Ron Hextall. To put it in hockey parlance, Hextall tended to play on his heels. Dubas plays on his toes.
We’ve added six new players over the past few days who are likely to nab roster spots, forwards Reilly Smith, Noel Acciari, Lars Eller and Matt Nieto, high-profile defenseman Ryan Graves (pictured) and goalie Alex Nedeljkovic. Re-upping incumbent UFA netminder Tristan Jarry makes seven.
A third of the team.
In addition, Dubas added several depth pieces in forwards Radim Zohorna (welcome back ‘Big Z’!), Marc Johnstone, Joona Koppanen, defenseman Ryan Shea and goalie Magnus Hellberg. Although a journeyman, the latter made an impression on me last December 28 in a game against the Red Wings. The giant Swede (6’6” 220) came on in relief of Ville Husso and stopped all 19 shots he faced to key a wild 5-4 comeback win for the Wings. But I digress.
Back to my original question.
Are we better?
Let’s address each area of need and see how we did.
BOTTOM SIX FORWARDS
Few would debate our most pressing need involved overhauling our bottom-six forwards. To Dubas’ credit, he made sweeping changes. Continuing a teardown and reconstruct that started under Hextall last spring, Josh Archibald (Lightning), Nick Bonino (Rangers) and Ryan Poehling (Flyers) were allowed to depart through free agency.
New additions Acciari, Eller and Nieto should definitely provide an upgrade, especially to our penalty-killing unit…one of the league’s worst during the second half of the season. Although we lost some speed (Archibald, Poehling), the newcomers are all good skaters. Acciari and Eller excel in the faceoff circle, especially the former (a robust 53.8 percent last season).
The 209-pound Acciari adds an extra dimension…a willingness to bang, hard and often (244 hits in ’22-23). Although he doesn’t drop the gloves as frequently as he used to, the fast-swinging lefty can throw ‘em pretty fair.
If there’s a concern, none of the newcomers is known for lighting the lamp. A consistent 15-goal man throughout his career, Eller’s slowing down. Acciari and Nieto have topped out at 20 and 15 goals respectively, but have plenty of sub-10-goal campaigns between them. A bit of a red flag.
While they aren’t exactly ready for the old folks’ home, none of the trio are on the sunny side of 30. And we still lack a big, aggressive (and young) power forward who can contribute (example: Kostin, Klim).
Still, combined with incumbents Drew O’Connor, Mikael Granlund (ulp) and Jeff Carter (double ulp), our bottom-six should be better, especially defensively.
Although the buyout window has closed and despite rhetoric to the contrary, Granlund could still be on the move, perhaps opening a spot for comparative kids Alex Nylander, Sam Poulin or Valtteri Puustinen.
DEFENSE
Dubas scored a huge coup by signing Ryan Graves, arguably the top left-shot defenseman on the market, to a six-year deal with an AAV of $4.5 million. He’ll replace long-time stalwart Brian Dumoulin, who inked a two-year pact with Pittsburgh West (Seattle), where he’ll join former black-and-gold defenders Jamie Oleksiak and Justin Schultz.
Back to Graves. Just an uber solid, steady-as-she-goes, shot-blocking defenseman who can also provide some offense (eight goals, 26 points with the Devils last season).
While not overly physical, Graves is huge (6’5” 220) and figures to provide the type of time-and-space-eating presence we haven’t had since Hal Gill.
In terms of where he slots, the Nova Scotia native’s definitely a top-four. Depending on how things shake out, he could skate next to Kris Letang on the No. 1 pairing or join Jeff Petry (provided Jeff isn’t dealt), with Marcus Pettersson manning the other top-four spot. Leaving Pierre-Olivier Joseph or Ty Smith to partner with Jan Rutta on the third pairing.
Should Dubas pull off a stunner and land the biggest fish on the market, Norris Trophy winner Erik Karlsson? The makeup of our defense would change…dramatically and dynamically. Not sure if I’m for it, but the mere thought of it makes me tingle.
For now, Graves makes our ‘d’ better, and not by just a little.
GOALTENDING
I confess, I was disappointed to learn we’d re-upped Tristan Jarry, and for an AAV of $5.375 for five years to boot. He’s been a little too inconsistent and injury-prone for my taste. And despite two All-Star Game selections, he’s yet to prove he can get ‘er done come crunch time.
What I’m fumbling to say is, at age 28, he’s still an enigma.
We just have to trust that Dubas and his staff know something we don’t (hardly a stretch).
I do like Dubas’ other additions between the pipes. Or, at the very least, am intrigued. Alex Nedeljkovic followed up a superb rookie season with Carolina in ’20-21 with two “iffy” ones in Detroit (a nice way of saying he stunk). But…and at this stage it’s a BIG but…if he can regain his form and confidence, he could provide us with a solid 1A option to Jarry, which I personally think is needed.
I also like the Hellberg signing. I like the idea of having a monster between the pipes who basically takes up the whole net. I think that type of goalie would fare better behind the fire-drill that often masquerades as our team defense, as opposed to a small, athletic type.
Which leads me to incumbent backup, Casey DeSmith. Nothing against Casey. When he’s on he’s on, often in spectacular fashion. But when he’s not… Although not for a lack of try or pluck, he isn’t cut out for the 1A role.
I just feel like it’s time for a different look.
Anyway, I like what Dubas has done thus far. The loss of fiery free-agent winger Jason Zucker not withstanding (HATED losing Zucks), I do think we’re a better team than we were a week ago.
How much better remains to be seen.
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Hey all.
The one need we didn't (or have yet to) properly address is third-line center. Acciari and Eller are more fourth line solutions than third. As it stands now, if Sid and/or Geno go down for any length of time, we're in deep doo doo.
In Toronto, Dubas' replacement Brad Treliving signed both Tyler Bertuzzi and Max Domi to one-year deals, the latter for only $3 million! A steal.
Anyway, as Jim pointed out, we have a lot of summer to go and I, too, get the sense Dubas isn't finished. Although I don't necessarily agree with every move he's made thus far, I like his boldness and the way he goes about his business.
Rick
Rick
I think it's heading in the right direction but I wish Dubas would of made a run
af a few players with size & grit. Killorn or Hathaway, even though I don't think
we had the cap room to sign Killorn. I thought Hathaway was doable.
The Jarry signing and allowing Zucker to depart are head scratchers. Maybe
Dubas implemented some type of clause in Jarry's contract? Playing a certain
number of games? With Zucker - even if Smith contributes the same or more
on the offensive end he lacks any kind of physicallity. I don't mind losing Zucker
but I always say you have to replace him with someone that offers similiar
qualities and with the lack of grit on this team it just got worse.
Hey Rick,
The answer to your question is absolutely yes we are better now than 2 weeks ago. But I think you are all jumping the gun a little bit. Dubas is NOT finished . Give him a month and then ask your question.
As of an hour ago we are still one of 2 teams in the running for Erik Karlsson . The other is Carolina but my sources in Ottawa says there may be a personality conflict with one player on the Cannes roster....Only time will tell Rick. Plus for the right deal Dubas will move other Roster players to make us a better team. He is not finished ....
That is why I like Dubas and what he brings to the Pens organization. As he said in his last news conference " any time a player of that caliber comes on the market it is incumbent of me to see how I can add him to our team if it makes us better". That is the guy I want running my Hockey operation. Nobody is untouchable and that is the way it should be...
.I for one am excited about our future and so what if we don't win the Cup this year, the previous team built by Hextal was a disaster.
Great article.
Cheers
Jim
Hey Jim,
Interesting note on Karlsson, he logged 25:36 (3::28 PP) TOI last season, how much of that will cut into Letang's TOI, who logged 24:51 (3:40)? or will it. Will Sully go with 2 RHD on the No. 1 PP and drop a F? and then the 3rd pairing RHD only get about 9 min per game?
Assuming Dubas gets Karlsson.
Hey Coach,
If we were so lucky to get Karlsson at a cap hit of 6 million with 4 years remaining on his contract consider the following.
1. He is 3 years younger than Letang, has played 13 seasons and he will be 37 years old when he retires. Kris Letang will be 41.
2. He has won the James Norris Trophy 3 times and was a finalist 2 other times. In 13 seasons! Letang has none.
3. On 4 different seasons he led his team in total points.
4. In 2023 he was the third highest paid player in the league behind Mc David and Matthews at 11.5 million dollars per season. The highest paid d man ever.
5. He was a finalist for the Lindsay Award as the best player in the league.
This is not a knock on Letang because he is a great player also but he is not Erik Karlsson. I think his addition to our team will make us much stronger.
With regards to the power play I am sure Sid will figure it out and who ever he wants will be the starting quarter back of the first PP.
For me it will give the Pens 2 top puck moving, fast skating elite d men and one will always be on the ice, except for when we are killing penalties. ( about 9 minutes ).haha
But i am not getting my hopes up Coach because the deal is not done yet and Carolina have better assets to give San Jose.
Jim
Hey poopers,
I wasn't a fan of most of the Pens draft picks, but I do like what Dubas has done with free agency.
First , I read articles Graves could get up to $7million, I love his size and his contract is a steal.
2nd, the bottom 6 is better, the PK should be pretty good and really if the team gets some offense from the 6, even better.
As far as Jarry goes, I am on the fence, if..and a big IF he can be healthy ..he plays like a top, elite puck stopper. 5years is long if he has injury issues. There wasn't much else out there for UFA goalies, and to get Connor from the Peg was maybe to steep a price to pay, but Dubas did sign some quality insurance in case.
Obviously time will tell.
Hey Rick,
You beat me to the punch my friend. I was writing a similar piece. Now worries though. The long and short of it;
I the here and now, no they only moved laterally. At this point they are no more closer to a Cup than they were at the end of the 2022-23 regular season. The average age of the UFA skaters that left the team was 30.8, the average age of the skaters that joined the team 31.
The only incumbent that represents a real improvement in talent is Graves, the others may be slightly better than an out going player but they are also older.
In other words the NHL roster is roughly the same NHL roster, just with different names, that lost its last 2 games to teams fighting for the right to draft Connor Bedard, not even the team the built up the points total that the end team squandered.
And though you may be too polite to say it, I am not; the re-signing of Jarry to a raise was STUPID. the only player that earned a raise last season was Zucker and he walked. If you look carefully at Jarry's splits, his career has followed a very predictable path. He starts out strong and fades down the stretch just like I accused Zucker of doing. He builds himself up a solid 1st half of the season and has gotten 2 All star game appearances (doesn't mean much as every team has to be represented and until this season fans played favorites). However, after about 30 -35 games he unravels and gets hurt. Moreover, after the season was over the team spin Doctors claimed Jarry played hurt at the end of the year. When pressed as to why the team didn't let him sit until it was healed or a surgical intervention wasn't attempted, the team said that his injury was such that surgery or rehab won't help. Therefore Jarry is damaged goods. This signing totally unravels any other good Dubas has done so far.
If the rumored deal for Karlsson is pulled off, maybe this team could get back to the playoffs, but no matter how you slice it, Sullivan is still the Coach and he will blow it in the first round. He no longer has generational talents at the height of their careers to make his opposite world strategies work.
No Rick, the only positives I have seen so far have occurred in our pipeline. Every skater Dubas added to the farm system is over 6'-0", Johnstone (6'-0"), Shea 6'-2", Koppanen 6'-5", and a returning Zohorna 6'-6". and even though Dubas passed on much better players than Yager, the kid can shoot not much else but he can shoot and Dubas' late round picks contain some intriguing prospects.
The problem here is that prospects boil down to a numbers game; as intrigued as I am with some of these players only a fraction of them will ever pan out in a good farm system and since our farm system has been broken for far too long, that fraction could be very small.
Oh yes, and even though the pool is being filled, O'Connor will more than likely have to start in the kiddie pool again, as will Ty Smith and Gruden because there is just no more Cap space. so the log jam continues. I certainly wouldn't want to be a Penguins prospect, the carrot will always be just 1 more veteran away from you.
And the tragedy is in Goal. Jarry is at best a back up (in terms of the number of quality games per season he can play) and behind him you have DeSmith and Nedeljkovic fighting to be the back-up to a back-up Goalie. All the while a true prospect in Blomqvist will have to toil behind 32 yr old Magnus Hellberg and the loser of the the DeSmith - Nedeljkovic shoot out.
Any excitement I had last Wednesday is already fading in the SOP soap opera.