Will the Penguins Buy Out Granlund This Time Around?

With player movement around the NHL slowing to a trickle, I confess my mind has taken a bit of a summer sabbatical, with nary a fresh idea popping into my head. So when one trickled in this morning I figured I’d better jump on it.

Gifted with a second buyout window thanks to Drew O’Connor’s arbitration case, will Kyle Dubas reverse his earlier course regarding Mikael Granlund?

Buying out the last two seasons of the much-maligned forward’s contract would provide quite a bit of cap savings against his $5 million AAV over the next couple of seasons. To be exact, $4.167 million this season and $3.167 million the next. Hardly chicken feed and dollars that could be used to fill other voids and/or provide some cap flexibility.

The pain would come down the road, in 2025-26 and ’26-27, resulting in a cap hit of $1.833 million in each of those seasons. However, with the cap ceiling expected to rise by as much as $5 million beginning in ’24-25, a relatively small price to pay.

Dubas is on record as saying he doesn’t favor buyouts to correct past mistakes. He’s gone as far to suggest that Mike Sullivan and his staff will try to restore Granlund to some degree of his former luster.

As far-fetched as those statements may seem based on Granlund’s recent performance, they may be more than idle posturing on the part of our president of hockey ops. Dubas was reported to have interest in acquiring the Finnish forward for Toronto a couple of years ago. Which, in an odd way, would seem to validate former GM Ron Hextall’s claim that the former ninth overall pick was “a coveted player.”

Indeed, once upon a time in a galaxy far, far away (Minnesota actually) Granlund was a pretty decent player, with a pair of 20+ goal seasons and three 60+ point seasons to his credit. His former Wild linemate and Pens teammate Jason Zucker credited the slick setup man with helping him pot his career-best 33 goals back in ’17-18.

However, after being dealt to Nashville at the 2019 deadline, Granlund’s production began to wane. In fact, his numbers after arriving in the Music City that spring…a goal and four assists in 16 games…were eerily similar to his rather dismal output for the Pens last spring (1+4 in 21 games).

Although Granlund’s traditional stat-line rebounded to a degree with the Predators (a career-best 53 assists and 64 points in ’21-22) his underlying metrics sank like a stone. Over a four-season span from the end of the ’19-20 season to the end of last season his overall WAR plummeted from 73 percent to 56 percent to around 12 percent…all the way down to 4 percent! His even strength offensive and defensive WARs tumbled accordingly, along with his sub-metrics.

While certainly not for a lack of effort, it’s safe to say the 31-year-old forward isn’t nearly the player he once was.

Of course, the stated attempt to rehabilitate Granlund could be a smokescreen on Dubas’ part, meant to buy time while he searches for a potential trade partner. But other GMs are certainly aware of Mikael’s precipitous decline. With the second buyout window fast approaching (likely the first week in August), the time to make a deal is growing short.

It’s possible (although unlikely) Granlund might be part of the package in the rumored Erik Karlsson swap. If not, there’s always the possibility of an in-season trade. Still, I don’t relish the thought of carrying a diminished Granlund and his $5 million cap hit for another year or maybe two. To say nothing of him taking ice time away from a potentially more deserving and productive player.

It’s time to part ways.

Crowded Crease

The organization added yet another goalie yesterday when the Baby Pens inked Garret Sparks to a one-year deal. That makes five goalies, Tristan Jarry, Casey DeSmith, Alex Nedeljkovic, Magnus Hellberg and now Sparks who boast NHL experience. At 6’3” and 220 pounds, Sparks provides another big body between the pipes as well.

A seventh-round pick of the Maple Leafs back in 2011, Sparks has spent the majority of his career in the minors. In ’17-18, he won the Aldege “Baz” Bastien Award as the AHL’s top goalie while backstopping the Toronto Marlies to the Calder Cup. The 30-year-old Illinois native has also appeared in 40 NHL games with three teams, posting a 3.06 goals against average and .899 save percentage.

The presence of so many veterans wouldn’t seem to bode too well for youngsters Taylor Gauthier, Tommy Napier and top goalie prospect Joel Blomqvist, although Dubas is known to favor a goaltender-by-committee approach.

We’ll see how it shakes out.