Penguins ’24-25 Preview: Playoff Bound or Pfft?

It’s that time of year, folks. The leaves are beginning to fall and a brand new hockey season is upon us. Final cuts have been made and rosters have been set. Hopes for a successful season spring eternal.

But how realistic are those hopes? I thought I’d peer into my admittedly cracked crystal ball and see what it foretells for our Penguins.

The mist is starting dissipate. I see a number. Ninety-four points!

Check that. Another number’s beginning to emerge. Eight-eight points. Same as last year.

Darn.

No wait…that one’s fading, too. Yet another number’s forming. This one says 76 points.

Yikes!

My apologies for the silly lead-in. The truth of the matter? All three of these results could be valid, depending on how the chips fall.

Here are a few factors that could cause us to rise like the Phoenix from the ashes of two non-playoff campaigns, maintain an even strain, or tumble to new lows.

The Core Four

Our Core Four of Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang and Erik Karlsson are back for another go-around. If they’re able to repeat their performances from last season, I believe the supporting cast has improved to enough to propel the Pens to a playoff berth.

The bad news? To quote Rocky Balboa, these guys aren’t as young as spring time. Indeed, all are in their mid-to-late 30s. As we know all-too-well, Father Time is undefeated.

Too, the foursome collectively missed nary a game last season. Not to be pessimistic, but the chances of them repeating that feat are probably slim and none.

Sid is Sid. Barring injury, I think he’ll keep on keepin’ on. As for Geno, I’m fearful this is the year the wheels fall off his wagon. That’s in no way, shape or form meant to be a knock. It’s just that he’s 38.

As superbly conditioned as he is, could Tanger be in for a slowdown as well?

The Power Play

An unmitigated disaster last season. We managed just 40 man-advantage goals in 262 tries, an ultra-dismal 15.27 conversion rate. Even worse, we yielded a staggering 12 short-handed goals.

We would’ve been better served to decline penalties.

The man in charge of the fiasco, assistant coach Todd Reirden, is gone. Replaced by former Sharks coach and close Mike Sullivan associate David Quinn.

Upbeat and energetic, Quinn is stressing tempo and movement, aspects that were all-too-often lacking last season.

A function of our collective age?

Maybe.

Let’s hope Quinn has some answers. A functional power play could make all the difference.

Depth Scoring

The one area where I think we’ve improved, perhaps dramatically. Adding the likes of high-profile rookie Rutger McGroarty, Kevin Hayes (excellent set-up man), Cody Glass and a hale and healthy Jesse Puljujärvi, not to mention shifting Noel Acciari to wing, could and should greatly boost our bottom-six production.

I can envision us rolling four capable lines, a huge departure from the past two seasons.

Whether that’s enough to compensate for perceived weaknesses remains to be seen.

Defense

An area to potentially fret over.

First, the good. Marcus Pettersson is as solid and dependable as they come. I really liked what I saw of Jack St. Ivany, who adds size, steadiness and a dash of physicality. In an admittedly brief sample size, I thought he had a settling effect on erratic and enigmatic Ryan Graves, his projected third-pairing partner.

Newcomer Matt Grzelcyk could be a nice tandem-mate for Letang, who played very well for most of last season before tailing off, the decline due at least in part to injury.

The wild card and the one I worry about the most aside from Graves?

Karlsson.

There are times when dreadful doesn’t begin to describe his defensive play, and I use that term loosely. Fortunately, Pettersson’s as good as they come at covering up, but I’m not sure EK65 (EEK65?) does enough offensively to compensate for his gaffes.

Sullivan really seems to like depth defender Ryan Shea. He’s a little too plain vanilla and physically unassertive for my taste.

Goaltending

Back in 1974-75, the Pens began the season with the unproven duo of Gary Inness and Bob Johnson guarding the twine.

“I’m not worried about our goaltending,” insisted then-GM Jack Button.

“No, he’s scared to death,” quipped a rival GM.

I confess, our present-day tandem of Tristan Jarry and rookie Joel Blomqvist gives me the heebie-jeebies. To the extent that I think goaltending could be our Achilles heel. The facet of our game that could consign the Good Ship Penguin to the depths of the Metro Division and Eastern Conference.

I simply don’t trust Jarry to come through when it really matters. He seems to have developed a penchant for allowing the goal you don’t want to allow, when you don’t want to allow it.

Nothing against Blomqvist, who earned AHL All-Star honors as a rookie pro last season, but that porous five-minute stretch against the Sabres in our first preseason game is still banging around in my head. Although he performed well in subsequent outings, I’m still reserving judgement.

Bottom line? I’ll feel a whole lot better when Alex Nedeljkovic returns from IR.

Prediction

I’m going to stay on the sunny side and predict a 92-point finish. Whether that’s enough to claim a playoff spot remains to be seen.

In the Metro, the depleted ‘Canes and aging Islanders could sag. However, the Devils and Capitals improved by leaps and bounds. Over in the Atlantic, the Senators and maybe the Sabres could be primed for a step forward.

Once again, it could all come down to the wire, with the Pens fighting for their playoff lives during the final week of the season.