Back in their Broad Street Bullies heyday, the Flyers selected a defenseman in the 1973 Amateur Draft named Larry Goodenough. IMHO, his nickname was one of the all-time best. “Izzy,” as in, “is he” Goodenough?
Har har.
I have similar questions about the Penguins’ defensive corps. Is it good enough to support a playoff push?
The raw numbers seem to say yes. Entering the All-Star break, we’re remarkably tied with the goaltending poor Oilers with the second-fewest, non-shootout goals allowed (124). It’s a little bit smoke and mirrors. Due to the fact that we’ve played fewer games than most of our competition we’re actually sixth in average goals allowed per game (2.70).
Still, you get the picture. We’ve been pretty darn good at goal prevention. A good thing, too, considering our power-play issues and finishing woes.
However, is the perceived strength actually a strength? Put another way, how much of our gaudy showing is due to our actual defense and how much credit goes to our goaltending? Kind of like the chicken or the egg…or vice versa.
There’s no denying Tristan Jarry and Alex Nedeljkovic (and Magnus Hellberg in his brief cameo) have been good-to-excellent. Then I look at our defense and, frankly, scratch my head.
At first glance we’re kind of like a three-legged stool back there, depending heavily on the troika of Kris Letang, Marcus Pettersson and Erik Karlsson to get ‘er done.
In terms of solid defensive play and positioning (which eliminates EK65), we’re more like a two-legged stool. And those don’t work very well.
Heaven forbid if injury befalls Letang or Pettersson. Our goose would be cooked for sure.
Actually, it isn’t quite as bad as all that. Despite his positional shortfalls, Karlsson’s underlying numbers are excellent. Just as important if not more so, he’s a plus-9 in 5v5 goal differential. He’s been on the ice for 42 goals for and 33 against.
Know who else has a positive 5v5 goal differential? With 26 for and 22 against, Ryan Graves. Considered a disappointment by some (including yours truly), the rangy newcomer has been on the ice for by-far the fewest 5v5 goals against per 60 minutes of any black-and-gold defenseman. Which would seem to bely the eye test, along the myth that he’s underachieved, at least defensively.
| Player | Goals against per 60 minutes 5v5 | Goals for 5v5 | Goals against 5v5 |
| Graves | 1.71 | 26 | 22 |
| Ruhwedel | 2.01 | 8 | 11 |
| Shea | 2.19 | 7 | 9 |
| Pettersson | 2.23 | 50 | 32 |
| Karlsson | 2.28 | 42 | 33 |
| Letang | 2.53 | 48 | 37 |
| Joseph | 3.07 | 7 | 12 |
| Ludvig | 3.40 | 4 | 11 |
Hmmmm. Maybe our Pens have a four-legged stool back there after all.
We’ll certainly need Graves (and Karlsson) to continue to hold their own, because the rest of the bunch isn’t too inspiring and all are underwater in terms of 5v5 goals for and against.
The worst, sorry to say? Rookie John Ludvig. While I love his sandpaper and hard-nosed style, he’s been on the ice for only 4 goals for 5v5 and 11 against. Although his Corsi and xGF% are strong, Pierre-Olivier Joseph is next in terms of 5v5 differential badness (7 for, 12 against).
Chad Ruhwedel and Ryan Shea are closer to break even and are actually two of our better defenders in terms of goal prevention.
To repeat my original question. Is our defense good enough to make the playoffs?
Maybe. But I’d feel a lot better about our chances if GM Kyle Dubas could turn up a solid (and physical) left-side defenseman.
Puckpourri
Just wanted to point out a couple of worthwhile reads on other sites. Dan Kingerski identifies three forward trade targets on Pittsburgh Hockey Now, including a popular former Pen, in his article titled, Penguins Hot Stove: Looking for Scoring Wingers. And Hooks Orpik on Pensburgh wrote an excellent article titled, Why Evgeni Malkin is the most important player for the Penguins down the stretch.
Hooks also shares a fascinating chart from JFresh listing the forwards with the fewest bursts of speed over 20 mph, which includes three Penguins.
Oh, and no sooner did I mention Calgary’s Elias Lindholm as a potential trade target than he was dealt to Vancouver for Andrei Kuzmenko. Nice to know I haven’t lost my touch…lol.
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Hey Rick,
The interesting thing is that this Rick is, when the game is on the line, with the Pens and their opponents within 1 G (Up/Down by 1 or tied), the Penguins Defense (Forwards included) give up the 14th fewest High Danger Chances, their Defense is in the top half of the league. However, their Goalies give up the 6 most High Danger Goals in the league when the game is on the line. In other words, the team defense is pretty much doing their job, it is your vaunted Goalies that you seem to think are doing great, that are letting this team down. It is the Goalies that are at fault for the almost 0.500 record of the team.
* (with OTL/SOL creating 3 pnt games, 0.556 is the league avg and the Pens are currently below that at 0.554)
I don’t have any problems with Letang (even though he shot a puck into his own net – that was on the coaching as I showed you). I didn’t want to waste assets on a trade for Karlsson and still would reverse that trade if I could, but #65 isn’t the problem either. Both Karlsson and Letang have made Pettersson look better than he is during the regular season than he really is, and I would trade him at the drop of a hat, he isn’t the problem. Graves may be the fans new Jack Johnson, but he isn’t the problem either. Even Ruhwedel is not the problem.
The Penguins Goalies are the ones (Jarry particualarly) who must take ownership to this team’s current state, the Goalies and the Coaching staff. When the chips are on the line the D comes through for the team, limiting High Danger Chances, It Jarry that can’t hold the fort, even though he is facing the 6th fewest High Danger Chances in the league.
The offense is the main culprit for the teams record, specifically the power play.
Historically, (and i can't find the url, doh), no team has ever averaged over 2 goals a game at even strength over the course of a season. meaning that the highest scoring teams had effective power plays helping them. The Penguins clearly do not have an effective power play this season, and they can't really score more at even strength on average.
Fix the powerplay, save the season.
Fixing any part of the game will help, but there are far too many problems for an easy fix. If the PP gets fixed, the question then becomes will teams take less Penalties, is the PP so anemic more so because 4:00 of the 5:28 PP time they average comes with the game within 1 G? In a tight game would opponents PKs knuckled down tighter causing the low conversion rate? Would the team's conversion rate go up if they were getting more PP time with bigger leads?
Most importantly, I was addressing the misconception that the Penguins Goalies are good, and they are not. When push comes to shove, they fail the team and that has nothing to do with the PP. I trust 4 -5 of the teams defensemen to make a big play, far more than I trust Tristan Jarry and his 5 year $5.375 million contract to make a big save with a game on the line.
I don't buy your assertion the penguins goalies are the reason for losses. They are both playing very well overall, and I don't see how you can give the defense a pass and blame the goalies alone for late game goals allowed.
Just because the defenders allow less high danger chances doesn't let them off the hook if they go in the net.
If the goalies were allowing goals on lower level danger shots (mid/low), that might support your bias.
From what I've observed, the majority of the goals allowed involve defenseman making bad choices and making it easier to score.
You don't have to believe me but it is true, our Goalies are well below the league average when it comes to being there when their team needs them, particularly Tristan Jarry. (I quoted the numbers. Those numbers are objective and unbiased.) Medium and Low danger chances are unimportant when rating Goalies, they are the stat builders. The standard Deviations there are small as all Goalies are stopping those shots. It is only on the High danger chances where the differences begin to matter.
For those who only wish to go by the eye test, Jarry has extremely poor rebound control, he sits way too far back of his crease, he doesn't play his angles well, particularly when a player is on his off wing, he takes way too many chances with the puck and coming out of his crease, and he is not mentally tough; that is to say he never gives up just one bad Goal - after the first bad Goal he turns into a turnstile and 2 or 3 more bad Goals fly past him in quick succession.
Furthermore, If Jarry was playing better his W% would be somewhere around Ned's W% but Jarry is 13-14-4 while Ned is 8-3-3. If Ned was give the same amount of starts as Jarry and Jarry was limited to the amount of starts as Ned, we wouldn't be having this conversation, the team would be securely in at least a wild card position. It has too many holes to be challenging for the division title, but it would in a far better position.
Some players are winners, some are losers, Jarry is a loser. He is never there when the team needs him.
Hey Rick,
You know me, you know I never worry about popularity contests. I don't care if people agree with what I say, even when as a Goalie (OK former Goalie), I lived it and know what it takes and the ins and outs of the position.
Also, this is America, you are allowed to have your own opinions. Opine away.
Hey Other Rick,
I'm late getting to the dance, but I agree with 'keeger' on this one...with a caveat on Jarry. Overall, I think he's played very well (.613 quality starts %), albeit with a touch of inconsistency. And I do worry about him at crunch time (and especially OT).
It feels like he still gives up the goal here and there that you don't want to allow. But I'm picking nits, especially considering how poorly we play in front of him in OT.
Overall, I give our goaltending two thumbs up.
Welcome to Penguin Poop, keeger!
Rick
Ok you really do not like Jarry. I will say this about him from what I've noticed. When he is on, he's elite (5 shutouts this year). when he is not on, he is really not on. His consistency isn't the best for sure. However, I've noticed that with Ned playing well and taking more starts, that Jarry has been having less bad games. He does best when under pressure of competition. This was said to be one aspect that Matt Murray needed to play at a high level as well; worrying about Fleury taking back the net kept him on his toes.
I think it was the Vegas game, where we gave up 3 goals quickly in the 3rd. Jarry played elite in periods 1 and 2. but the 2 goals that beat him in like a minute? Not on him. the defense whiffed badly on covering the slot and passes got through in a blink of an eye and he couldn't do anything.
Calling him a loser seems harsh to me. Fleury had a similar playing style: elite, and trash.
at the end of the day though, Sullivan's teams are meant to rely on offense to help their defense, and the offense is not helping. the powerplay has set historic low records for the franchise, and once that is fixed (if it is), everything will look a lot better. If they had a middle of the road powerplay, they would have another 6-8 points in the standings most likely, on a conservative estimate.