Penguins Update: Is Our Defense Good Enough?

Back in their Broad Street Bullies heyday, the Flyers selected a defenseman in the 1973 Amateur Draft named Larry Goodenough. IMHO, his nickname was one of the all-time best. “Izzy,” as in, “is he” Goodenough?

Har har.

I have similar questions about the Penguins’ defensive corps. Is it good enough to support a playoff push?

The raw numbers seem to say yes. Entering the All-Star break, we’re remarkably tied with the goaltending poor Oilers with the second-fewest, non-shootout goals allowed (124). It’s a little bit smoke and mirrors. Due to the fact that we’ve played fewer games than most of our competition we’re actually sixth in average goals allowed per game (2.70).

Still, you get the picture. We’ve been pretty darn good at goal prevention. A good thing, too, considering our power-play issues and finishing woes.

However, is the perceived strength actually a strength? Put another way, how much of our gaudy showing is due to our actual defense and how much credit goes to our goaltending? Kind of like the chicken or the egg…or vice versa.

There’s no denying Tristan Jarry and Alex Nedeljkovic (and Magnus Hellberg in his brief cameo) have been good-to-excellent. Then I look at our defense and, frankly, scratch my head.

At first glance we’re kind of like a three-legged stool back there, depending heavily on the troika of Kris Letang, Marcus Pettersson and Erik Karlsson to get ‘er done.

In terms of solid defensive play and positioning (which eliminates EK65), we’re more like a two-legged stool. And those don’t work very well.

Heaven forbid if injury befalls Letang or Pettersson. Our goose would be cooked for sure.

Actually, it isn’t quite as bad as all that. Despite his positional shortfalls, Karlsson’s underlying numbers are excellent. Just as important if not more so, he’s a plus-9 in 5v5 goal differential. He’s been on the ice for 42 goals for and 33 against.

Know who else has a positive 5v5 goal differential? With 26 for and 22 against, Ryan Graves. Considered a disappointment by some (including yours truly), the rangy newcomer has been on the ice for by-far the fewest 5v5 goals against per 60 minutes of any black-and-gold defenseman. Which would seem to bely the eye test, along the myth that he’s underachieved, at least defensively.

Player	Goals against per 60 minutes 5v5	Goals for 5v5	Goals against 5v5
Graves	1.71	26	22
Ruhwedel	2.01	8	11
Shea	2.19	7	9
Pettersson	2.23	50	32
Karlsson	2.28	42	33
Letang	2.53	48	37
Joseph	3.07	7	12
Ludvig	3.40	4	11

 

Hmmmm. Maybe our Pens have a four-legged stool back there after all.

We’ll certainly need Graves (and Karlsson) to continue to hold their own, because the rest of the bunch isn’t too inspiring and all are underwater in terms of 5v5 goals for and against.

The worst, sorry to say? Rookie John Ludvig. While I love his sandpaper and hard-nosed style, he’s been on the ice for only 4 goals for 5v5 and 11 against. Although his Corsi and xGF% are strong, Pierre-Olivier Joseph is next in terms of 5v5 differential badness (7 for, 12 against).

Chad Ruhwedel and Ryan Shea are closer to break even and are actually two of our better defenders in terms of goal prevention.

To repeat my original question. Is our defense good enough to make the playoffs?

Maybe. But I’d feel a lot better about our chances if GM Kyle Dubas could turn up a solid (and physical) left-side defenseman.

Puckpourri

Just wanted to point out a couple of worthwhile reads on other sites. Dan Kingerski identifies three forward trade targets on Pittsburgh Hockey Now, including a popular former Pen, in his article titled, Penguins Hot Stove: Looking for Scoring Wingers. And Hooks Orpik on Pensburgh wrote an excellent article titled, Why Evgeni Malkin is the most important player for the Penguins down the stretch.

Hooks also shares a fascinating chart from JFresh listing the forwards with the fewest bursts of speed over 20 mph, which includes three Penguins.

Oh, and no sooner did I mention Calgary’s Elias Lindholm as a potential trade target than he was dealt to Vancouver for Andrei Kuzmenko. Nice to know I haven’t lost my touch…lol.