I was thinking about the inexorable decline of our Penguins yesterday. Stewing over the fact that we’ve missed the playoffs two seasons running and haven’t won a playoff series since 2018. Practically a lifetime ago in sporting circles.
Specifically, I wondered if this is the way of things for former Stanley Cup champions.
The answer?
A resounding YES.
Not only is it common for former Cup winners to experience first-round flameouts (or worse), it’s the norm.
After capturing back-to-back Cups in ’20 and ’21, the Lightning are tracking toward a second straight first-round exit after reaching the Final in ’22. Vanquished that spring by Nathan MacKinnon’s Avs, who likewise bowed in the first round the following season.
The Blues, Cup winners in ’19? Like our Pens, they’ve missed the postseason two years running following a second-round ouster and two first-round exits.
Blood-rival Washington, whose rise in the early 2000s synced with ours, have more or less been in lock-step with us on the way down as well. Following their Cup triumph in ’18, the Caps endured a string of four first-round exits and missed the playoffs altogether last spring, with yet another first-round exit looming.
For good measure, I’ll throw in the Blackhawks. Once the pride of the NHL with three Cups in six seasons, the ‘Hawks have missed the postseason six of the last seven years. This on the heels of two first-round exits following their last Cup in ’15.
Yzer-plan or not, the Red Wings have missed the playoffs eight consecutive seasons after three first-round burnouts.
In the case of the Caps, Hawks and Wings, they clung to their venerated cores far too long. While it’s still early, the Lightning seem to be heading down the same path.
Doesn’t bode too well for our Pens, does it?
Indeed, among the Cup champions of the 2010s, only the Kings and Bruins have managed to avoid a protracted post-Cup plummet because each elected to execute a tear-down and rebuild on the fly. The Bruins have been by far the most successful, missing the playoffs only twice since ’06-07. A year after a young Mike Sullivan was replaced as their coach.
Our Pens were actually in the midst of just such a retool under former GM Jim Rutherford when he abruptly resigned, reportedly over his desire to trade a core player. Ron Hextall was hired in part due to a pledge to keep the core intact. However, Hexy’s own attempt to retool failed miserably, accelerating his departure and our decline.
Now Kyle Dubas is scrambling to freshen the supporting cast around franchise pillars Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang, with decidedly mixed results. And, with a dearth of young talent and premium draft picks at his disposal?
Like the ‘Hawks and Wings, model franchises in the not-too-distant past, we’re likely in for a long, hard fall before all is said and done.
A final observation.
Each of the champions from the past decade have fired their Cup-winning coach.
The Blues axed Craig Berube this season following a sluggish start and executed a turnaround of sorts under Drew Bannister. The Caps are on their third head coach (including Pens assistant Todd Reirden) since Barry Trotz led them to the Cup.
Joel Quenneville and Mike Babcock have long since departed, replaced by a carousel of coaches in Chi-Town and the Motor City. Duane Sutter went the way of the Dodo in LA (and Calgary).
Only Sullivan remains firmly affixed in place.
I’m not suggesting for one second the Pens would turn everything around under a different coach. As presaged by the other former champions, our downfall at this stage is etched in stone, or written in the stars if you prefer. As inevitable as death and taxes.
My concern is more for the future than the present. Is the non-kid friendly, set-in-his-ways-and-system Sully the man we want leading the team as we transition to youth? A stated Dubas objective.
You be the judge.
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Hey Rick,
Great article!!!!
I am going to suggest that this inexorable decline didn't have to happen. There is always an opportunity to break the cycle. The problem is no one seems inclined to make the hard decisions that could avoid that death spiral.
1. GMs, Coaches, and Fans over-value players. No I am not talking about the big 3. There is value in keeping those types of players around. I am talking about over-valuing non-core players. An example of this has been suggested as a pitfall this trade deadline. There are those that suggested there was interest in Jarry, but Dubas balked asking more than they were willing to pay and Jarry kept losing games for the Pens instead of an opponent.
2. GMs over-valuing veterans and undervaluing youth and enthusiasm.Veterans, particularly aging veterans no longer want to pay the price for winning. Our friend Joe, from the gym often cites Tom Barrasso, as he aged out, commenting after a loss, that in the grand scheme of things, he wasn't all that upset with the loss. His family meant more to him. And that is what we see here; a bunch of 9 to 5 ers putting their time in, and not much else.
3. Coaches too afraid to lose that they fail to win. Coming out of Preseason, not only did O'Connor earn a spot on the big league roster but so did Puustinen. Poulin, and Zohorna. And truthfully, Ned, Hellberg, and Blomqvist all played better than Jarry. Not only do GMs over-value aging veterans, so do Coaches. Coaches forget what got them to the top and start playing too conservative, choosing the safe options that media types push rather, players of known quality (or lack thereof) rather than unknown quantities; they play players with a track record - even if it is a losing track record over a player that just might be a winner.
So, in the end, we have fans suffer through a return to the Eddie Olczyk 2005-06 Penguins