Before I begin my ramble, I need to state up front that I have absolutely no connections to the Penguins. Nary a shred of inside scoop, either.
What I’m about to write is pure surmising on my part. Entirely a case of yours truly attempting to read the tea leaves and connect the dots on what’s been a decidedly off-key summer thus far for our favorite hockey team.
As I do, a plan behind what superficially appears to be a rather ill-conceived retool begins to crystallize…a method to POHO/GM Kyle Dubas’ seeming madness. One that has the potential to pay incredible dividends.
Here’s what I believe is going on. I think Dubas is purposefully setting us up to fail. Which would do much to explain the head-scratching Kevin Hayes acquisition and the, shall we say, less-than-inspired free-agent adds this week.
I think Dubas is positioning us to be a bottom-ten team next season heading into the trade deadline. Then he’ll hold a fire sale, peddling every asset for draft capital that isn’t nailed down or rooted in place by a no trade/movement clause to complete the collapse.
We’ll enter the 2025-26 season with a bare-bones, stripped-down-to-the-floorboards lineup featuring an odd jumble of has-beens, never-weres and not-ready-for-prime-time kids buttressing (or weighing down) our venerable core.
But hold the phone on the core part.
I find it interesting and not the least bit instructive that contract extension talks with Sidney Crosby have suddenly cooled. He and fellow franchise pillars Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang may…or may not…be willing to come along for what promises to be a joyless ride.
To digress, I think Dubas took a long, hard look at the roster and the cap space on hand and decided it was no longer prudent to try prop the team up for a run at a playoff spot, let alone compete for a Stanley Cup. He said as much publicly.
Instead, he hatched the above-stated plan in order to position us for a shot at drafting the next franchise player, Medicine Hat phenom Gavin McKenna, who’ll be draft eligible in 2026. A move that would supercharge our rebuild.
Eddie Johnston, our beloved EJ, executed a similar Ponzi scheme back in the early 1980s to put us in a position to draft the incomparable Mario Lemieux. A master stroke that dramatically and irretrievably reversed the fortunes of a dying franchise and spawned a golden era of hockey that’s endured for nearly 40 years.
David Beeston, until recently our alternate governor and the member of Fenway Sports Group most closely associated with the team may have balked, perhaps voicing concerns that following such a course would erode ticket sales and revenue. (Notice no one associated with the team is using the dreaded ‘r-word’…rebuild. Everything has to be done in stealth mode to avoid alienating the fan base.)
It’s possible Beeston lost a subsequent power struggle, which may have led him to step down last week on the eve of free agency to join Clearlake Capital, a stakeholder in Chelsea FC across the pond.
In my mind, the timing is just too perfect. Too coincidental to be anything but true.
Given the green light by FSG to proceed, Dubas then began to execute his tank job in earnest, acquiring Hayes and signing a rather motley collection of free agents to short-term deals. The easier to clean house when the time comes.
Could Dubas be that smart?
I think the answer is yes.
The worrisome thread is how this affects Crosby, the face of the franchise, and to a lesser extent the other stars. Again, just my take. I think Sid would prefer to stay, but only if Dubas at least attempted to ice a competitive team.
The fact that he hasn’t has given No. 87 pause.
Personally, I would love to see Crosby consent to be traded to Colorado, where he’d be united with his Nova Scotia buddy and fellow Hart Trophy winner (and Horton’s trainee) Nathan MacKinnon. I can picture two-way Sid playing Ron Francis to MacKinnon’s Mario, in the process propelling the Avalanche to another Cup. One that would serve as a crowning achievement to a brilliant career.
Of course, I could be all wet about all of this.
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Interesting idea you and Caleb cooked up Rick and even though it could be true (all things have a probability), even if the team tanks completely, there are serious grave risks.
1) The draft is a lottery, so even if the Pens tank, they may not get McKenna. They had the best odds to get Ovie and didn't. (of course had the Pens played their cards right they could have had both Geno and Ovie).
2) McKenna may not develop the way the Scouts think. He is only 16
3) McKenna may be as good as the Scouts think but may get injured.
4) Pulling a dirty deal like that on Sid/Geno/Kris could return the same bad Karma back on the team. All 3 players took serious reduced contracts to help build that incredible run and were promised a chance for what should happen now, 1 - team players. Yes Hockey is no longer a sport but a business, but should the team play dirty with those 3, this team will no longer be viewed as a good franchise and lose a lot of Capital when it comes to dealing with players in the future.
Most importantly, trying to orchestrate that level of betrayal is unnecessary. The big 3 seem to want to back Sullivan and Sullivan is doing a super fine job of imploding this team on his own. Therefore, all Dubas has to do is let Sullivan do his thing and he will accomplish the job of getting great odds at the overall number 1 without any assistance from Dubas and without ticking off the Big 3 since they seem to be his friend.
Hey Other Rick,
I definitely went out on a limb with this article and maybe it gets sawed off behind me and I land on the ground with a thud. I assume a lot, and you know the time-honored saying... But I think it makes more sense and has a greater probability of holding true than you seem to think.
What doesn't make sense? Being medium or randomly bad and hoping that you somehow stumble into a position to procure quality players through the draft. That'll get you nowhere.
A failure to plan is a plan to fail, as they say.
At some point in time, Dubas must strip the team down to the floorboards...or as close as he can get. If you're going to be bad anyway (and trust me...we will be) why not be purposeful about it and at least take a shot at the brass ring (drafting McKenna)?
And trust me, this kid's for real. After watching videos of McKenna, my immediate impression is Lemieux-esque...and that's a comparison I've rarely if ever made. The way he skates and sees the ice, his posture...head up, alert. Not to mention the skill and the moves (more than Mae West to coin a Mike Lange phrase). He carries himself very much like Mario on the ice.
There are other intriguing similarities. McKenna scored 97 points as a 16-year-old in the WHL...Mario had 96 in junior at the same age.
Whether the hockey gods would bless us with a fifth generational player might be too much to hope for. Thinking that Hartford would be the worst team in the league come Mario's draft year, the Canadiens sent Pierre Larouche and a bunch of picks to the Whale for that pick.
Mercifully, we were worse. But it sure makes sense to go for it in my book.
My guess is, Dubas feels the same way.
Rick
Also,
As for failing to plan - planning to fail, for several years I was proposing to trade of other players like Hornqvist (even Letang at one point) for future 1st round draft picks from teams that I thought would be falling down into the top ten. Had the team planned for the future when I I was pushing for it, then this whole argument just may be moot as Dubas would not only have gotten good young replacements that kept the team as true Cup hopefuls rather than a bunch of 1 and done clowns while also giving them trade capital that still may have given them eventual rights to that number 1 overall 2 seasons from now.
I do plan, I try to think 3, 4 or 5 moves ahead, with contingencies. I always loved that old Bob ism (you know who I mean).
Hey Rick,
I am not saying that Dubas won't try your idea, in fact, many people are suggesting it, not only fans but I have read other self proclaimed pundits theorize your very thought.
What I did and am saying is Dubas doesn't have to help Sullivan run this team into the ground, Sullivan has been doing a bang up job all by himself. As Crosby, Malkin, and Letang age out, that are less and less capable of bailing out their Coach. keeping them happy and together will not stop this free fall.
I am saying that this team doesn't have to finish dead last anymore to get a shot at McKenna. In fact, it has been shown that teams who don't finish last often get that number 1 overall pick. All the team has to do is fall a little farther on their own and Sullivan is the guy to get them down to the bottom third of the league.
I am saying that I do not trust Dubas to surround McKenna with good young talent even if he can get McKenna and the kid turns out as good as the hype boys are saying. Dubas has left better players on the board on draft day with his reaching. Even if the Pens get the kid and he turns out to be Mario part deux and he stays healthy, it won't matter much if he is surrounded with a bunch of Joey-bag-of-doughnuts.
I am also saying that keeping the "core" together to retire as Penguins can have tons of PR value, after they took seriously reduced contracts rather than follow the greed that has turned sports into spectacle, where dollar signs and personal statistics have outstripped team. I am saying that fickle fans that now want to throw these guys on the trash heap to get nothing more than a percentage chance to draft McKenna don't deserve McKenna even if the team gets him and he does turn out to be a generational talent.
And as for him being a generational talent a la Mario, I will not anoint him as such until I have seen him play and play a full game, not watch highlight reels. Highlight reels speak nothing of the player and are nothing but hype. Pickering was drafted in the 1st round because of scouts watching nothing but highlight reels (most of which were the same pass from multiple different angles - I know I not only watched those highlight reels but also his actual game videos. The full game videos told a better and more accurate tale). And to sum that up, I am not saying McKenna is or isn't anything, I haven't watched him play. I am saying I no longer trust anyone else's judgement after their track record of embellishments.