It’s no secret. Our Penguins are having difficulty scoring. Grave(s) difficulty. Incredibly, we’re tied with Arizona for 25th (out of 32 teams) in goals per game with 2.87. We rank a lowly 28th in goal production with 149 non-shootout goals.
Positively pop-gun output.
Fifty-three of those goals, or a whopping 36 percent, have come via the stick blades of our new Two-Headed Monster, Sidney Crosby (31) and Jake Guentzel (22). Alone, Crosby has accounted for nearly 21 percent of our output, or roughly one out of every five black-and-gold goals.
Extraordinary work on Sid’s part, but hardly ideal from a team standpoint.
So where have the goals gone? More to the point, who’s scoring ‘em and who’s not.
I decided to perform a simple side-by-side comparison of individual goal production from last season compared to projected totals this season at the NHL level.
There was nothing fancy or scientific in my method. I simply multiplied each player’s current goal total by 1.58 (82 games divided by the 52 we’ve played thus far). A straight-line projection that doesn’t take into account injuries or a player’s usage or status (ex: Radim Zohorna assigned to the Baby Pens). Some rounding is involved. Goalies are excluded.
As you’ll note in the following table, the plunge in projected output beyond Crosby, Guentzel, Evgeni Malkin and Bryan Rust is precipitous to say the least. Underscoring, if you’ll pardon the expression, just how much the supporting cast has lagged from an offensive standpoint.
The shortfalls in production among Kyle Dubas’ key acquisitions is particularly acute. Erik Karlsson (-14), Reilly Smith and Matt Nieto (-10 each), Noel Acciari (-9)…even Colin White (-8)…project to fall well short of last season’s output.
The biggest plummet of all? Rickard Rakell’s staggering -20.
As a group? This season’s bunch is projected to score 237 goals, as opposed to 296 last season. A whopping deficit of 59 goals.
Yikes.
| GOAL COMPARISON TABLE | |||
| Player | ’23-24 Proj. | ’22-23 | Diff. |
| Crosby | 49 | 33 | +16 |
| Guentzel | 35 | 36 | -1 |
| Malkin | 25 | 27 | -2 |
| Rust | 24 | 20 | +4 |
| Smith | 16 | 26 | -10 |
| Eller | 14 | 10 | +4 |
| Karlsson | 11 | 25 | -14 |
| Carter | 9 | 13 | -4 |
| O’Connor | 9 | 5 | +4 |
| Rakell | 8 | 28 | -20 |
| Letang | 6 | 12 | -6 |
| Zohorna | 6 | 1 | +5 |
| Acciari | 5 | 14 | -9 |
| Graves | 5 | 8 | -3 |
| Pettersson | 3 | 1 | +2 |
| Hinostroza | 2 | 2 | — |
| Ludvig | 2 | 0 | +2 |
| Nieto | 2 | 12 | -10 |
| Puustinen | 2 | 0 | +2 |
| Ruhwedel | 2 | 1 | +1 |
| Gruden | 0 | 0 | — |
| Harkins | 0 | 3 | -3 |
| Johnstone | 0 | 0 | — |
| Joseph | 0 | 5 | -5 |
| Koppanen | 0 | 0 | — |
| Nylander | 0 | 1 | -1 |
| Phillips | 2 | 0 | +2 |
| Puljujarvi | 0 | 5 | -5 |
| Shea | 0 | 0 | — |
| White | 0 | 8 | -8 |
| TOTAL | 237 | 296 | -59 |
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Remember, back in October, our Penguins were scoring 5-on-5 Gs at 2.89/60. Back in those heady days, the team was running a high pressure forecheck. They had the 3rd highest HDCF (13.75) in the league. The high danger chances did expose the team to some counterattack, but it wasn’t that bad, the HDCA (11.69) was still in the middle third of the league. Unfortunately, our Goalie (almost completely your boy Jarry – Ned was on IR most of the beginning of the season) had our team as the 2nd worst team in terms of HDSv% at 0.754. This caused the team to bleed the same amount of GA/60 as it was scoring, 2.89/60. So, the cry went out to peel back on the high-pressure offense and insulate our Goalie, and Sullivan eventually heard the cry and yielded to that logic.
Now our Penguins improved defensive posture has improved their standings from near the end of the middle third to near the top of the middle third in terms of HDCA/60. However, that improved defense has come at a cost offense. The team’s 5-on-5 GF/60 has dropped to 2.54/60.
My question then is, “How hard is it to find out where has all the offense gone? Long time passing.” (Thanks Pete Seeger) The team’s HDCF dropped to 11.88 – there is where the offense went, it was sacrificed to insulate Jarry.
SO pick your poison, do you want to lose games 2 - 1 or 5 - 4, the results will be the same.