Back in 1987, the late King of Pop, Michael Jackson, released a song titled, “Bad,” an oxymoron if there ever was one. The flamboyant performer ended each refrain with the provocative query, “Who’s Bad?”
Given the sorry state of our favored hockey team, I thought that would make a swell title for my impromptu look at individual on-ice performances.
Since the aim of any hockey player is to be on the ice when your team scores and not on the ice when scored against, I decided to keep things simple and use goals for and against as the basis for my evaluation. I ranked the players by their corresponding goals for percentage (GF%) and also included expected goals for percentage (xGF%), along with the differential between the two. I tossed in Corsi as well.
All data is courtesy of Natural Stat Trick and based on 5v5 play. I’ve displayed two tables, one for forwards and the other for our defensemen.
In most cases, read ‘em and weep.
| FORWARDS | |||||||
| Player | GF | GA | DIFF | GF% | xGF% | DIFF% | CORSI |
| Poulin | 2 | 1 | 1 | 66.67 | 58.02 | 8.65 | 58.02 |
| Rakell | 17 | 14 | 3 | 54.84 | 51.48 | 3.36 | 55.70 |
| Lizotte | 2 | 2 | 0 | 50.00 | 69.14 | -19.14 | 60.20 |
| Beauvillier | 11 | 12 | -1 | 47.83 | 51.68 | -3.85 | 49.52 |
| Puljujärvi | 9 | 10 | -1 | 47.37 | 53.16 | -5.79 | 51.66 |
| Malkin | 16 | 19 | -3 | 45.71 | 46.20 | -0.49 | 51.33 |
| Crosby | 15 | 21 | -6 | 41.67 | 50.46 | -8.79 | 52.98 |
| Bunting | 11 | 17 | -6 | 39.29 | 49.81 | -10.52 | 53.38 |
| Eller | 7 | 12 | -5 | 36.84 | 45.50 | -8.66 | 47.17 |
| Glass | 5 | 12 | -7 | 29.41 | 67.90 | -38.49 | 60.49 |
| Hayes | 4 | 12 | -8 | 25.00 | 51.29 | -26.29 | 52.55 |
| Rust | 6 | 19 | -13 | 24.00 | 42.01 | -18.01 | 45.09 |
| Acciari | 5 | 16 | -11 | 23.81 | 51.99 | -28.18 | 45.93 |
| O’Connor | 6 | 20 | -14 | 23.08 | 48.77 | -25.69 | 50.89 |
| Puustinen | 1 | 5 | -4 | 16.67 | 44.88 | -28.21 | 40.99 |
| Nieto | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0.00 | 37.80 | -37.80 | 39.56 |
| McGroarty | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0.00 | 51.37 | -51.37 | 51.67 |
| Ponomarev | 0 | 0 | 0 | 46.17 | 44.68 | ||
| Tomasino | 3 | 4 | -1 | 42.86 | 53.64 | -10.78 | 53.23 |
It’s somewhat ironic (and not at all unlike our Pens) that the player at the top of the forwards list, Sam Poulin, was just sent to Wilkes-Barre/Scranton. As you can see, during his brief six games stay Sam had strong metrics across the board.
Rickard Rakell has surprisingly solid numbers given the carnage that surrounds him. Likewise, Anthony Beauvillier, Jesse Puljujärvi and Blake Lizotte in limited duty have performed reasonably well.
At the opposite end of the spectrum? Drew O’Connor, Bryan Rust and Noel Acciari have been brutal in terms of goal differential. Cody Glass is the proud owner of a great xGF% and Corsi, which indicates he’s driving both play and possession, but it hasn’t translated into favorable results.
Stars Evgeni Malkin and Sidney Crosby are lodged in the mushy middle of the pack along with Michael Bunting.
I included newcomer Philip Tomasino’s metrics with Nashville. With a decent xGF% and Corsi but comparatively poor GF%, he should fit right in.
| DEFENSE | |||||||
| Player | GF | GA | DIFF | GF% | xGF% | DIFF% | CORSI |
| Pickering | 1 | 1 | 0 | 50.00 | 51.88 | -1.88 | 52.53 |
| Karlsson | 20 | 28 | -8 | 41.67 | 52.56 | -10.89 | 51.50 |
| Pettersson | 22 | 32 | -10 | 40.74 | 54.35 | -13.61 | 54.21 |
| St. Ivany | 6 | 9 | -3 | 40.00 | 43.48 | -3.48 | 44.57 |
| Letang | 10 | 19 | -9 | 34.48 | 47.21 | -12.73 | 51.35 |
| Shea | 3 | 6 | -3 | 33.33 | 55.14 | -21.81 | 55.46 |
| Graves | 6 | 13 | -7 | 31.58 | 53.32 | -21.74 | 49.90 |
| Grzelcyk | 10 | 22 | -12 | 31.25 | 43.57 | -12.32 | 49.31 |
Befitting a team that’s allowed by far the most goals against in the league (93), there isn’t much good news on the defensive side of the ledger.
Former first-rounder Owen Pickering has been a bright spot during his brief stay, but elsewhere?
Woof.
The worst of the worst, the doomsday defensive tandem of Kris Letang and Matt Grzelcyk, and rookie Jack St. Ivany, who’s struggled to keep pace with the speed of the NHL game.
Mike Sullivan fave Ryan Shea has looked more assertive of late and leads the blueline pack in xGF% and Corsi, but is underwater in goal differential along with the rest of the crew.
Hey, at least now if someone asks you, “Who’s Bad?” you can answer with confidence!
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I don't think that you can put much faith in these analytic numbers alone. Aside from they being small samples, it doesn't matter how great the analytics are if like Glass you don't score. The eye test wins and Polin and Ponomarev were invisible if you watched the games.
Puljujärvi is the best example. Want to know why he's not playing? I suggest you check out the great Francis Anzelone's coach debriefs on Youtube. The relevant one is "Debrief, E4: Defensive Disconnects and Disengagements Haunt the Penguins." He shows the things that Puljujärvi does that are getting him benched (and why he should never play with Malkin). In general, his videos are eye-openers for almost everyone who thinks that he knows hockey.
Hey all.
Just a quickie follow-up. The Pens activated Blake Lizotte from IR today and placed Valtteri Puustinen on waivers in a corresponding move. If Puusti clears waivers he'll be assigned to the Baby Pens.
He got caught up in a numbers game and really didn't get much of a chance to show what he could do this season. Not that he figured to be a major factor for us.
Anyway...the more things change for our Pens (kids play 6 minutes a night, get sent down, vets stick), the more they stay the same.
Rick
Hey Rick
Great work. IMO a lot of what show's up statistically can be contributed to Sullivan's system along with
his philosophy on defending in your own zone. I hate to repeat myself, but when your Head Coach
prefers the stick check over the body check the numbers aren't going to be pretty. When we played
Utah there was a scramble in front where Keller had two or three rebound attempts in succession, and
one of the broadcasters said it would of been nice if someone put Keller on his backside. Under Sullivan
it's not going to happen. On the flip side watch where our Pen's end up during a scramble in the crease?
Yep, you guessed it on there backside.
Rick, I'm not sure if you played Hockey, but I do know you're a very knowledgeable Hockey fan. When my
Son was growing up starting to play Pee Wee Hockey one of the early things he was taught was taking
your man out of the play, and finishing your check - the coach explained to the kids that by finishing the
check it prevented the opposing player from being involved in the action - you stayed between your man
and the goal. So IMO this is why using the stick check becomes an issue - even if you poke puck off of the
opposing players stick it doesn't prevent him from breaking to the net. This is a tough way to DEFEND.
SCRATCHING MY HEAD:
*Pen's send Poulin back to WBS - I'm curious what did the Pen's tell him as to why they were sending him back
to the minors - "You played great - the third line had more scoring opportunities than it's had in over a month,
Your possession numbers were off the charts and you had great chemistry with your linemates, but we have
to make the move in favor of Nieto. Wow - that's definitely a confidence booster for a young player.
*Is it me or does Rust appear to be skating in quick-sand?
*I know a lot of people are down on Karlsson but Lord the guy throws shot after shot to the net and no-one, and
I mean no-one for the Pen's is screening the goalie. Then I watch Utah and their players crash the net on every
shot opportunity. It's no wonder we can't score.
*Dubas needs to have a conversation with Bryan Rust about waiving his No Movement Clause.
Hey Mike,
I played hockey, Goal for most of my career. I never played on a team as soft and pathetic in their own zone. My defensemen defended me with all they had. My own little brother, who is 6" shorter than me and was about 50 lbs lighter than me at the time got into a serious fight with an opponent as big as me, because that opponent had the never to go hard into my crease.
We have had this discussion ad nauseum, hockey 101, if you want to win at hockey you have to control both creases. Why do our Penguins or should I say our Coach Mike Sullivan, loose hockey games? He doesn't want to control the creases. In his delusions his "Philosophy" is Ice Capades hockey (Ned Braden hockey at the end of the movie).
Then, hypocritically, he complains in the press that he doesn't want Crosby having to defend himself. Well I just have to ask our Teflon Coach, to whom does he give ice time that would be capable of defending his Captain?
* I am not a fan of Poulin but you are 100% right, what does the clown tell the kid, "sorry you are playing better than my veterans, so I am sending you down"? And then certain self-proclaimed hockey talking heads on other sites continue to defend Sullivan's treatment of prospects. What a joke!! Sullivan himself is the biggest reason for the lack of home grown prospects.
* On Rust, I was a fan and I guess I still respect his past efforts, however, no matter how much I like him in the past he is tanking this season and he tanked last season as well; one and a quarter and counting pathetic seasons. Not only was he over-paid for what he provides, he was also given a NMC, that was equally horrible.
I am not sure what the team could get for him, the way he is under-performing now, but I am with you, if the team could get him to waive his NMC and find a buyer that needs to be done ASAP. Oh wait, I think Rust is one of Sully's buddies. He was one of Sully's WBS boys before either came to Pgh. Therefore, I doubt he will go anywhere until sanity reigns once again in the Penguins front offices.
Hey Rick,
And that is why I have a full blown belly laugh when some naive fans dream about this team trading its way out of the abyss Sullivan and crew have sunk it (Almost Mariana Trench depth). Who would really want to risk anything of value on any of these players not named Crosby or Malkin?
Now, like our friend Make, I wouldn't completely hold any of the players accountable for these pathetic numbers when the coach's "Philosophy" is so counter-current to any logical approach to hockey. However, even if I would give each and every player an opportunity to redeem himself under a real NHL level Coach (not an FSG sinecure).I still wouldn't trade any impact player for any of this motley crew.