Penguins forward Jake Guentzel has been in the news lately, and not just for his exemplary play and production.
Rather, it has to do with the plucky winger’s fate come the trade deadline. Jim Rutherford’s high-flying Canucks are one team rumored to be in the hunt for Guentzel’s services.
Which brings me to my question. Should the Pens trade the pending UFA-to-be or hang onto him?
A really tough question that’ll be at least partially determined by our standing at the deadline. If we’re still in the playoff mix, I suspect it’s a no brainer to keep Jake and roll the dice in the offseason, when the salary cap is expected to increase by several million dollars.
If we’re out of the playoff chase? The question becomes a lot more problematic.
To digress, it’s really hard to imagine the Pens without Guentzel. From the moment Jake first stepped onto the ice for us as a fresh-faced rookie back in November 2016 and scored two goals in his debut, he’s been a special player. A rare combination of grit, guile, magic hands and smarts and fueled by an ultra-competitive nature, the Omaha native’s averaged close to a point per game over his eight-season NHL career and twice hit the 40-goal mark. I recently opined if he were 6’3” instead of 5’11” he’d be a lock to score 50 goals.
To say nothing of the fact Jake’s blended like peas and carrots with reigning black-and-gold superstar Sidney Crosby. Indeed, they seem born to play with each other.
In a season pockmarked by uncertainly, Jake’s been a bright light that keeps shining brighter. He currently leads the team with 43 points and 25 assists and is second to Crosby in goals with 18. With points in all but eight of his 37 games, he’s been a model of consistency all season long. Since the beginning of December he’s been on an absolute goal-scoring heater with 11 tallies in 15 games, including three two-goal games.
Again, can you imagine where we’d be without him?
I can’t.
In the final season of a five-year deal that pays him a very reasonable $6 million per, he’s likely in line for a substantial boost in pay.
How substantial?
Three forwards roughly of Jake’s caliber, Bo Horvat (Islanders), Timo Meier (Devils) and J.T. Miller (Canucks) have signed long-term deals in the not-too-distant past with AAVs of $8 million and up. While Jake’s age (29) and small stature might mitigate against him, $8 million (or more) annually certainly doesn’t seem out of the question.
Too, Jake’s success isn’t based on blazing speed or the physical ability to overpower foes, but rather a skill set and intangibles which should hold up reasonably well as turns the corner into his 30s. And despite his less-than-imposing frame, he’s been surprisingly durable.
Again, all this points to Jake reaping a healthy (and most deserved) reward for his efforts.
Would it make sense for the Pens to hang onto him and try to resign him? If POHO/GM Kyle Dubas can limit the term to, say, four years…something Jake and his agent may balk at…I’d say yes. If not, as difficult as it is for me to write it, we may be better served to deal the popular winger.
If we choose the latter, what kind of return can we reasonably expect? Vancouver received a top-12 protected 2023 first-round pick (which turned out to be 17th overall) for Horvat along with middle-six forward Anthony Beauvillier while agreeing to 25 percent salary retention. The Canucks wound up flipping the pick to Detroit for defenseman Filip Hronek.
As for Meier? The Sharks received a 2023 first-round pick (26th overall) and a second-round pick in 2024 that converts to a first if certain conditions are met, along with an exchange of fringe players.
I know at some point the Pens have to start looking to the future. But I can’t help but feel Jake is worth more than a first-round pick, unless we’re talking a top-five selection and maybe even then.
As the old saying goes, a bird in the hand (or in this case a bona fide star) is worth two in the bush.
If I had my druthers, I’d try to re-sign Jake.
Praise for Sully
Anyone who’s read PenguinPoop for any length of time knows Pens coach Mike Sullivan doesn’t receive much love on our blog. In fact, last summer I wrote a rather impassioned piece suggesting we part ways with our long-time coach.
I had issues with his perceived inability to adjust, along with his systematic and personnel preferences. Too, I just felt it was time for a new voice. An opinion reinforced when we stumbled out of the starting gates early while displaying many of the same weaknesses and shortfalls as last season.
Yet in his ninth season at the Pens’ helm I’ve seen genuine growth in Sully as a coach if not a downright rebirth. He’s shown a willingness to adjust his system to fit the personnel on hand and not vice versa, and he’s been more open to playing kids (Valtteri Puustinen) and players who might not be cut from his preferred cloth (John Ludvig).
Who said an old dog…or in this case a two-time Cup-winning coach…can’t learn new tricks?
In many ways, the dynamic reminds me an awful lot of his first season here. In fact, this team reminds me of that ’15-16 squad, just with the makeup and the way the season is playing out. And while a Stanley Cup may be too much to hope for, this bunch seems to be jelling the same way that one did.
Sullivan deserves a lot of the credit. He’s been patient when he’s needed to be and made the proper adjustments when merited. For the most part, he’s pushed the right buttons.
In terms of being a thoughtful, knowledgeable hockey coach as well as a quality human being, Sullivan’s always gotten high marks in my book.
Bottom line? We could do much (much) worse for a head coach and not a whole lot better.
Keep him