I was casting about this morning, pondering what I could possibly write about when I was reminded of a recent conversation with Other Rick regarding the state of the Penguins’ goaltending. Which dovetails with an overarching question that’s been on my mind.
Namely, was our poor goaltending a direct result of our watery defense (third-most goals allowed in the league)? Or did porous netminding (13 first-shot goals against) sabotage the team’s chances?
A classic case of the chicken or the egg conundrum.
Thanks to a host of advanced metrics displayed on MoneyPuck, we may have an answer.
First, the basics. Going strictly by the boxcars (goals against average and save percentage), none of our three goalies from last season, veterans Tristan Jarry and Alex Nedeljkovic and rookie Joel Blomqvist, performed particularly well. The rankings in the following tables are out of the 66 NHL goalies who appeared in at least 15 games, which excludes newcomer Arturs Silovs.
| Goals Against Average & Save Percentage | ||||
| Goalie | GAA | Rank | SV% | Rank |
| Nedeljkovic | 3.12 | 48 | .894 | 45 |
| Jarry | 3.12 | 48 | .892 | 50 |
| Blomqvist | 3.81 | 66 | .885 | 56 |
Yikes. Those sure are some ugly numbers and rankings. Especially Blomqvist’s, who to my eye appeared to be overmatched in his first taste of NHL competition.
Still, it doesn’t really answer my question. Did poor defense drive poor goaltending, or vice versa?
Thanks to a plethora of advanced goalie stats, MoneyPuck may provide a clue. I was tempted to go with 5v5 data. However, since goalies are on the ice in all situations (except, of course, empty net), I went with overall numbers
I’ll let them do the talking.
| Goals Against vs. Expected Goals Against | ||||
| Goalie | GA | xGA | Diff. (%) | Rank |
| Nedeljkovic | 112 | 111.02 | -0.88 | 40 |
| Jarry | 105 | 100.33 | -4.65 | 46 |
| Blomqvist | 49 | 44.33 | -10.53 | 53 |
| Goals Against Average vs. Expected Goals Against Average | ||||
| Goalie | GAA | xGAA | Diff. (%) | Rank |
| Nedeljkovic | 3.12 | 3.10 | -0.03 | 40 |
| Jarry | 3.12 | 2.98 | -0.14 | 46 |
| Blomqvist | 3.81 | 3.44 | -0.36 | 56 |
| Save % vs. Expected Save % (Unblocked Shots) | ||||
| Goalie | SV% | xSV% | Diff (%) | Rank |
| Nedeljkovic | .947 | .948 | -.0005 | 41 |
| Jarry | .948 | .950 | -.0023 | 46 |
| Blomqvist | .939 | .945 | -.0058 | 55 |
| Wins Above Replacement | ||
| Goalie | WAR | Rank |
| Nedeljkovic | -0.16 | 40 |
| Jarry | -0.78 | 47 |
| Blomqvist | -0.78 | 47 |
In short, any way you parse ‘em, the stats don’t reflect favorably on our goalies, who consistently ranked in the bottom third (or worse) in most categories. While it’s true hockey’s a team sport and the performances of goalies and the players in front of them are intricately intertwined and interdependent, playing for a poor or average team doesn’t automatically doom a goalie to substandard stats.
Igor Shesterkin (Rangers), Joey Daccord (Kraken), Ilya Sorokin (Islanders), John Gibson and Lukas Dostal (Ducks), Karel Vejmelka (Utah), Cam Talbot and Alex Lyon (Red Wings), Dustin Wolf and Dan Vladar (Flames), James Reimer (Sabres), Kevin Lankinen (Canucks) and especially Arvid Soderblom (Blackhawks) posted positive WARs while backstopping non-playoff teams.
Which seems to point the finger squarely at our goalies as a significant contributor to our overall woes.
I still haven’t figured out if that makes them the chicken or the egg.
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Hey all,
Just a quick follow-up. In the interest of posting content, I was probably guilty of rushing my article a tad. There are truly a myriad of categories to look at.
One of them? Save percentage on high-danger, unblocked shot attempts. Blomqvist remarkably had the 5th best in the league among qualifying goalies at .843! His expected save percentage in the same category was .691, for a differential of .152. Which was eighth-best among the 66 goalies listed.
By comparison, Jarry was .731 and .670 with a differential of .062, which was 59th. Nedeljkovic was only slightly better at .746, .672 and .075, good for 52nd.
While it doesn't really shift the overall analysis, it does provide a glimmer of hope for the future as far as Blomqvist is concerned.
Rick