Penguins Report Card: How Is Kyle Dubas Doing?

With nothing in particular to write about, I thought I’d take a gander at how Penguins’ POHO/GM Kyle Dubas has fared after two seasons on the job.

Since arriving as a big-splash hire in June of 2023 to replace the disgraced duo of Ron Hextall and Brian Burke, by my unofficial count he’s signed 23 free agents who’ve skated for the Pens (including PTOs and Filip Hållander), made four waiver claims and a dozen trades. That’s a whole lot of activity in a relatively short time span.

The results? Perhaps not quite what we…or he…might’ve hoped for or expected. Two non-playoff seasons and a gradual, if controlled regression segueing into a retool/rebuild.

I guess my bottom-line question is, is Dubas doing a good job?

Personally, I’d say he’s exceeded expectations in some areas while falling short in others.

First, what he’s done well. Dubas has transformed an organization that was practically bankrupt in terms of prospects and draft capital and made us flush, at least in the latter category. According to PuckPedia, the Pens have 30 selections spread over the next three Entry Drafts, including 18 in the top-three rounds. A scouting director’s dream.

Kyle has also added premium prospects Ville Koivunen and Rutger McGroarty, who project to be solid contributors for the Pens, perhaps as early as next season. Dubas draft picks Tanner Howe, Emil Pieniniemi and especially Harrison Brunicke could follow suit in the not-too-distant future.

I’ll give Dubas an A in this category.

As for his work at the NHL level?

Welllll…

…the following tables display his free-agent signings, waiver claims and trade acquisitions who’ve played at least one game for the Pens. When evaluating Dubas’s performance, keep in mind his primary mission in 2023 was to construct a defensive-minded, bottom-six to suppress the opposition and provide a foundation for top-sixers Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin & Co. to do their thing.

2023

FREE AGENTS

Acciari (F), Eller (F), Graves (D), Helberg (G), Hinostroza (F), Jarry (G), Johnstone (F), Koppanen (F), Nedeljkovic (G), Nieto (F), Puljujärvi (F-PTO), Shea (D), White (F-PTO), Zohorna (F)

WAIVER CLAIMS

Harkins (F), Ludvig (D), Phillips (F)

TRADE ACQUISITIONS

Bemström (F), Bunting (F), Karlsson (D), Koivunen (F), Ponomarev (F), Smith (F)

 

Yikes.

Moves that seemed sound at the time, like signing former NHL plus-minus leader Ryan Graves long-term to replace Brian Dumoulin and inking established veteran defensive forwards Matt Nieto and Noel Acciari to keep foes in check, have backfired mightily. Homesick for his Vegas mates, former Misfit Reilly Smith was just that in the ‘Burgh.

The Tristan Jarry signing? Uh boy.

While I credit Dubas for clearing out some dead wood in the Erik Karlsson blockbuster, which appeared masterful at the time, it’s safe to say EK65’s fallen short of expectations, as a power-play catalyst and especially in the defensive zone.

When it comes to managing the puck, the three-time Norris Trophy winner committed an astounding 140 giveaways in ’24-25, second-most in the league. That’s a heckuva lot of potential odd-man breaks coming our goaltender’s way.

Still, it’s hard to fault Dubas for taking a big swing, even if Karlsson’s been outscored by resurgent Mikael Granlund, 126 points to 109, since the trade.

Although it’s a bit early to judge, I’ll give Dubas a win in the Jake Guentzel deal, which netted feisty forward Michael Bunting (since dealt), forward prospects Koivunen, Vasily Ponomarev and Cruz Lucius and, in essence, Brunicke.

We simply weren’t going re-sign Jake. Koivunen looks to have star potential. Perhaps Brunicke, too.

2024

FREE AGENTS

Beauvillier (F), Clurman (D), Grzelcyk (D), Hållander (F), Imama (F), Lizotte (F)

WAIVER CLAIMS

Kolyachonok (D)

TRADE ACQUISITIONS

Desharnais (D), Dewar (F), Glass (F), Hayes (F), Heinen (F), Joseph (D), McGroarty (F), Novak (F), Timmins (D), Tomasino (F)

 

On the surface, Dubas’s work appears to be less-than-inspired. However, I actually think he did a better job this past season. Under-the-radar, free-agent signings Matt Grzelcyk, Anthony Beauvillier and Blake Lizotte all performed reasonably well and provided value.

In particular, Grzelcyk (and not so much Karlsson) revived a sagging power play with his deft passing and puck distribution. Beauvillier (since traded) was effective in a Swiss Army Knife role, netting 15 goals while slotting up and down the lineup as needed. I think Lizotte could’ve done more if not saddled with dead weights Nieto and Acciari for a good chunk of the season.

On the trade front, Dubas seemed particularly intent on acquiring young forwards of pedigree who didn’t pan out with their previous team (in most cases, Nashville). A sound enough practice.

On the plus side, gleaning a first-round pick (along with Danton Heinen and Vincent Desharnais) for pending UFAs Marcus Pettersson and Drew O’Connor was a win. As was exchanging 2023 top pick Brayden Yager for McGroarty. Thumbs-up to landing RFAs-to-be Conor Timmins and Connor Dewar at the deadline for a lone fifth-round pick.

IMHO, taking a flyer on Philip Tomasino for a fourth-rounder was worth it. However, I wasn’t as enthused about acquiring fellow ex-Preds Cody Glass and Tommy Novak, although at least we added assets with the former, who did everything reasonably well except produce.

The jury’s still out on Novak, a skilled but Charmin ‘soff’ center who was injured almost the moment he arrived.

Great guy that he is, I was never a fan of taking on Kevin Hayes for one season, let alone two, even if we reaped a second-round pick in return. We just didn’t need to be tied long-term to another aging forward.

Not a fan of the trade, minor that it was, that brought Pierre-Olivier Joseph back to town. JFresh hit the nail on the head when he described POJ as, “A decent skater but poor defensively (9% WAR) and not a factor in transition. Struggled a lot on a pair with Letang last year.”

To wrap up, I give Dubas a C (maybe a C-) for his work at the big-league level. Since that has the most immediate impact on the team, it brings his overall grade, personnel-wise, down to a C+.

But wait. There’s a more recent development to factor in. Parting ways with long-time coach Mike Sullivan was absolutely, positively the right move.

As Dubas so eloquently and aptly stated, “Sometimes the class needs a new professor. And sometimes the professor needs a new class.”

I couldn’t agree more.

Depending on who he hires as a replacement, I may bump his grade up to B-, with obvious room for improvement.