Once again, I was perusing hockey sites with nothing in particular in mind, when an idea for a potential Penguins trade popped into my head. And, no, what I’m about to write wasn’t prompted by a video titled, “Huge Red Wings Trade Update: Erik Karlsson to Detroit Picking up Steam,” which I just saw after writing my article.
Actually, it’s an idea previously set forth by one (or both) of my PP colleagues, Other Rick and Caleb Di’Natale. We send defenseman Erik Karlsson to the Red Wings for forward prospect Nate Danielson, with other moving parts likely factoring in.
On the surface, the trade makes a lot of sense. In the midst of a ghastly nine-season playoff drought, the Red Wings have been knocking on the postseason door for the past couple springs, but have yet to enter.
General manager Steve Yzerman of Yzerplan fame, hasn’t been shy about adding mid-level supporting players to help the Wings’ cause. However, aside from Patrick Kane and the recent acquisition of high-profile goalie John Gibson, he hasn’t made a splashy addition.
Is it time for him to do so? As the saying goes, desperate times call for desperate measures. Could Karlsson be the piece that finally shoves the Red Wings over the top?
Despite a couple of disappointing seasons in the ‘Burgh, there’s no questioning the three-time Norris Trophy winner’s ability, as evidenced by his stellar play for Team Sweden in the 4 Nations Face-Off.
For the quicksilver defenseman, it seems more a matter of fit and motivation than diminishing skills, even at age 35.
Too, the Red Wings have a long-time affinity for sons of the Tre Kroner, from heroes and Cup winners of the past such as Johan Franzén, Tomas Holmström, Nicklas Lidström, Mikael Samuelsson and Henrik Zetterberg to budding stars of the present, Lucas Raymond and Simon Edvinsson.
Karlsson might fit hand-and-glove into their culture, to say nothing of the boost he’d provide to a potentially explosive forward group that includes the likes of Raymond, Dylan Larkin and Alex DeBrincat. Too, the Wings are shallow on the right side of defense. EK65 would fit nicely on their second pairing in support of emerging star Moritz Seider, or vice versa.
As for Danielson? He’s a 20-year-old, right-shot center and the Wings’ top selection in the 2023 Entry Draft (ninth overall). At 6’2” and 188 pounds, he’s got good size among other attributes.
Here’s what Elite Prospects had to say. Keep in mind, they tend to be effusive in their praise. However, it does provide a snapshot of the player, not to mention his strengths.
Danielson was a creator of rush offence, building speed beneath the puck, charging through the neutral zone with possession, carving the ice up with powerful, agile crossovers, and turning the corner on opposing defenceman. Equal parts natural speed as a skater and handling skill made that a relatively effective signature move for the Wheat Kings centre.
As for more sober evaluations? Michael Stahurski described the kid as, “A two-way center capable of playing up and down the lineup.” Sam McGilligan opined, “I can see a world where Danielson plays a perfectly adequate 3C role on a legitimately good NHL team.”
In keeping with those evaluations, Danielson put up solid if unspectacular numbers during his four years of junior in the WHL, first with Brandon and then Portland, where he was coached by none other than former Pens skipper Mike Johnston.
His first pro season at Grand Rapids of the AHL was more of the same. Decent, but not dazzling boxcars (12 goals, 39 points in 71 games).
Still, acquiring a young middle-six center with upside potential, one who plays a responsible game to boot, would be a boon for our Pens.
As for the gory financial details? The Wings presently have $12.9 million of available cap space, more than enough to fit Karlsson’s $10 million hit. I’m guessing Yzerman would require some salary retention, say perhaps $2.5-$3 million to get ‘er done.
Nor would the Pens get off scot-free in the baggage department. Along with Danielson, we’d likely need to accept Justin Holl, a big, soft, 33-year-old right side defenseman.
The good news? Holl, a former Maple Leaf who has ties to Kyle Dubas, is in the final season of a deal that pays him $3.4 million.
In the short run, the trade wouldn’t do us any favors, likely weakening an already substandard blue-line corps, particularly in the transition game. However, it would open a slot for emerging prospect Harrison Brunicke as the heir apparent to Karlsson on the right side of our defense. And we’d shed EK65’s burdensome contract while providing Dubas with some cap flexibility.
Anywho, my thought for a sizzling and sensible summertime swap.
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Would. Like to think that Karl will be traded for some value this season. With Dubas forcing the issue by overloading positional players, Eric is getting the hint. Although, in his mind he would rather likely go somewhere closer to a Cup run than Detroit. It was interesting how the Rangers moved both Krieder and Trouba. I guess the gamble on trading these 2 forwards and this one D, is that they may regress during the season. However, we all witnessed the panicky type moves that GMJR had performed during trade deadlines of the past. I think Kyle is sitting pretty to let these guys play until the buyer gets desperate.
Hello Squiggy and welcome to PenguinPoop!
You're probably right about Detroit not being close enough to a Cup contender to encourage Karlsson to waive his no movement clause, although perhaps the Wings strong Swedish flavor might have some sway.
Actually, the most intriguing destination I saw suggested (by Pensburgh) was Tampa Bay...apparently EK65 and Victor Hedman have displayed a lot of chemistry whenever they've played together through the years. But the Bolts aren't exactly cap flush.
Especially like and agree with your last statement. Dubas really shouldn't be in a rush to trade Karlsson (or Rakell or Rust), especially if he doesn't like what's being offered. Let the market and need dictate the demand, even if it happens at the trade deadline. Good chance of getting a more favorable return that way.
Rick
There is an interesting post on PHN, where they try to project the Penguins starting lineup for this coming season. Regardless of what we fans may like or dislike, Karlsson's name is not in that lineup (interestingly enough, neither is Dumba's). Given the nature of PHN and their reticence to write anything that would ruffle the feathers of the Penguins Organization with idle gossip, it would seem that a Karlsson trade is a fait accompli and not just a rumor or speculation.
And Rick, I would not disregard Detroit as a destination for Karlsson out of hand. Detroit has a far, far better chance than the Penguins to make the playoffs this season. Furthermore, Tampa Bay only has a hair of $1 million in Cap Space, while Detroit has over $12 million. Any deal with Tampa Bay would require a great deal of creativity. As our friend Mike reminds us deals can get done, but Tampa Bay will require a whole lot more than Detroit.
Rick
I just saw where Dubas traded Vladislav Kolyachonok to the Dallas Stars
for Matt Dumba and a 2028 2nd round pick. Man, I liked that kid - this
sends mixed signals to Penguin fans. IMO
Hey Mike,
with Dumba being another RHD, it does make sense that one of the veteran RHD gets traded - Karlsson being that someone. Dumba is only 30 but hasn't really had a good season in a long time and the draft pick they received doesn't occur until 2028.
Dubas does have a good track record with second round picks, but it is way off in the future.
Just not sure what I want to think here.
The Other Rick
If it were up to me, Letang would be packing his bags. I truly believe his game is going to take another significant step back—he’s already regressing. As for a Karlsson trade, I just don’t see it happening, though I’ve been wrong before. I can’t think of a team that makes real sense for picking him up. Maybe Dallas, but I imagine Dubas would want one of their young wingers in return, which I think would be a deal breaker. I don’t see a Karlsson trade going through unless Dubas gets a young, somewhat established NHL player in return.
Hey Mike,
I am not down on Karlsson like so many others are. I really didn't want Dubas to trade for him in the first place, it pretty much sunk any hope for Crosby and Malkin to get a 4th ring but he is a far better player than many here in Pgh would acknowledge. And I agree that he is the better RHD between Letang and Karlsson, he has won 3 Norris trophies and been named 1st team NHL All Star 3 times (therefore, many, many people have recognized his talent) and that makes him the easier to move.
If Detroit is really interested in him as I mentioned a couple of days ago and Rick reiterated here, if the noise has merit and isn't as stupid as the constant wishful thinking rumors coming out of Canada about Crosby going north, then I would take a trade that involves Danielson as part of the compensation. This team is going to need Centers in the very near future and Danielson can easily fit that bill. The team seems to need an exit strategy for Malkin come the end of the year, with the posturing about not even considering giving Geno another contract.
I do agree that you don't simply give Karlsson away, or any player for that matter (any other player not named Jarry). However, getting Danielson back in exchange isn't giving Karlsson away.
Rick
Agree - I see Letang taking another step backwards. It should be interesting - if they get
value for Karlsson and don't have to retain to much of his salary, I say do the deal. I
wouldn't do it just to dump salary unless they have a plan to trade for an offensive DMan.
Rick
Moving Erik Karlsson at this stage would have immediate and far-reaching consequences beyond simply freeing up cap space.
While managing the salary cap is important, we must also consider the potential decline in overall performance—especially the impact on offensive production from the blueline and power play. Karlsson’s ability to transition the puck and generate offense from the back end is unmatched on our current roster. His departure would leave holes that we are currently not equipped to fill.
Could we be better defensively without him? Probably yes, but is that improvement enough to justify moving on from him now? I don't believe so.
Instead, I would push for exploring a trade later in the season. That gives Sidney Crosby nearly a full season to continue producing at an elite level—perhaps even maintaining his point-per-game average—while still leaving the option to
persue a trade at the deadline.
Hey Mike,
Sorry for the delayed response to your comment.
Excellent thoughts, and very well expressed. You make some very valid points, especially about the (huge) negative impact trading Karlsson would have on our transition game, especially with Kris Letang in decline.
You're absolutely correct...trading EK65 would weaken us in the short run, especially if we attempt to replace him with a journeyman like Holl.
With all due respect to Sidney Crosby, I don't mind if we semi-tank this season. The better to get a decent pick in what's regarded as a talent-rich draft.
Rick
Rick
I'm with you on Sid but are the Penguins? They've been making moves and not making moves to
make sure he has legimate linemates to keep him happy - IMO - I also think my moving Karlsson
it could effect both McGroarty and Koivunen.
Removing Karlsson could have a significant impact on young players like Rutger McGroarty and Ville Koivunen. Without a strong offensive system and puck-moving support from the back end, their development — especially on the offensive side — could stagnate.
Ice time is only as valuable as the context it comes in. If the team struggles to generate consistent offense, these younger players might be forced into roles they’re not ready for, or worse, develop bad habitS.
Again, Mike, you make some excellent points. Especially about how trading Karlsson may negatively impact young forwards like Koivunen and McGroarty, to say nothing of our other forwards.
I have serious doubts about Kris Letang shouldering the bulk of the blue line offense at this phase of his career...
Rick