I was casting about for subject matter this morning when a rather simple idea occurred to me. Namely, how will this season’s potential batch of Penguins perform on an individual basis? Will they sink, swim or tread water?
Strictly an opinion piece and totally subjective, with nary a metric considered.
My answers aren’t especially encouraging, at least not if you’re pulling for our Pens to challenge for a playoff spot.
Without further ado, here goes.
SWIM
Off the top of my head, I can only think of seven players who seem destined to build on last season’s performance. Four of them, prospects Joel Blomqvist, Ville Koivunen, Rutger McGroarty and Owen Pickering, aren’t even listed on our current PuckPedia roster.
It’s somewhat worrisome that the only member of our Core Four who has a decent shot to improve is 39-year-old Evgeni Malkin. Call it a hunch, but I think Geno’s output and overall performance will trend upward with a better quality of wingers (see Koivunen and McGroarty).
Others I envision on the upswing? In a case of setting the bar incredibly low, starting goalie Tristan Jarry should continue his late-season resurgence from Palookaville. With his strong underlying numbers, I think defenseman Parker Wotherspoon will prove to be a rarity in these parts…an astute Kyle Dubas signing.
Forwards: Koivunen, Malkin, McGroarty
Defense: Pickering, Wotherspoon
Goal: Blomqvist, Jarry
TREAD WATER
IMHO, most of the club will fall into the treading water category, including the remaining members of the Core Four and top scoring wingers Rickard Rakell and Bryan Rust.
In fact, it’s difficult to envision RikRak and Rusty improving on or maintaining their career-best performances of a season ago. As Sir Isaac Newton would most heartily concur, what goes up eventually must come down. Especially when the subject matter are hockey players in their 30s.
With Sidney Crosby, it’s more a case of setting the bar so extraordinarily high, year after year, that it would almost humanly impossible for Super Sid to improve on his 91 points from last season, especially at age 38.
Among the rest of the stay afloaters? Alex Alexeyev, Anthony Mantha and Tommy Novak could trend upward (see above reference to Jarry, Tristan), while veteran icon Kris Letang could join Rakell and Rust as potential regressors.
Forwards: Brazeau, Crosby, Dewar, Lizotte, Mantha, Novak, Rakell, Rust, Tomasino
Defense: Alexeyev, Clifton, Graves, Karlsson, Letang, Shea
Goal: Silovs
SINK
Look for Noel Acciari, Matt Dumba, Kevin Hayes and Danton Heinen, veterans all, to serve as anchors, pulling the good ship Penguin beneath the waves (and possibly toward a lottery pick in the upcoming draft).
For Acciari and Dumba, it’s simply a matter of attrition and the wheels falling off their respective wagons rather than anything nefarious. For Hayes and Heinen, it’ll be more tied to usage, or lack of. Especially as some of the kids begin to emerge and usurp ice time.
Forwards: Acciari, Hayes, K., Heinen
Defense: Dumba
As for the big picture? Lots of folks are pegging us to finish in the 75-80 point range.
Based on my cursory evaluation, that sounds about right.
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Hey Rick,
Swim, Tread Water or Sink, great way of looking at things Rick.
Statistically, I expect every player who toiled under Sullivan last season should bump their numbers up. I am not going to say they will improve their play any, but dumping the insanity of the opposite world schemes where we regularly saw players like Pettersson and St. Ivany being asked to drive the net; Defensemen who spent all their careers learning how to prevent shots and goals, while forwards like Sid and Geno were asked to play defense to cover for the wayward Defensemen.
The point of the above is that although I do not doubt, we will see better numbers from Jarry, but the man has no clue how to play the position. His play will be just as bad, but the number of quality shots against may be way, way lower, however, he will still be looking the wrong way when pucks go behind him, he will still give up big rebounds but the Defense may be there first to clear the puck, he will still roam far and wide from his net in search of scoring goals and getting assists rather than looking to stop pucks, he will still be very vulnerable to a melt down when he gives up one of his bad goals (although the Defense may insulate him well enough to prevent a blowout), and he will still line up his angles on the skater not the puck and concede a full third of his net to opponents.
Most importantly, no matter how big of a boost Jarry receives, if given a chance to play Blomqvist will be stunning in Goal.
On the other hand, simplifying the defense and asking the players to play to their strengths rather than their weaknesses, I could see Graves having not only a statistical bounce back, but a full bounce back year in terms of play.
Also, like you, I do see Geno getting a bump not only from possibly better wingers, but from not having to try and be the lone man back on D, while his defensemen are roaming who knows where. Also, I can see a Morale boost in the Big Bear, just from a change at the helm.
As to our conversation about Sid, I can see him as well as Rakell and Rust seeing a statistical bump. When Geno gets rolling and with an infusion of youth, the pressure on opposing goalies and defense will have a trickle up affect and even they should appear to get better. Not that they can really play better, since Sid in particular leaves it all on the ice, but with all of the other change, his numbers could easily go up too.
As for Silovs, outside of that anomalous AHL cup he will just be himself. He didn’t have to toil in the doldrums of the Penguins last season. He is what he is, an unathletic young MAF type of Goalie. He may make the occasional highlight reel save, because he guessed wrong and was out of position but without the Flowers athleticism he does not/will not get back anywhere near as often.
(Not referring to the mature MAF, when Penguins management finally invested in a Goalie Coach; who became a phenomenal future HoF Goalie, but the young MAF when he was left to try and figure it out on his own)
In the end, if the Pens want a shot at the McKenna sweepstakes, regardless of how well the skaters play, if Muse plays Jarry – Silovs, then they will still have a shot at the overall number one pick. Maybe not the bottom of the league, with the 25% shot, but bottom 10. However, if Blomqvist is given the net and Murashov gets a couple of call ups when the team is playing weaker opponents while players like Acciari, Dumba, K. Hayes, and Novak are given trips to WBS, then I can see this anywhere between 80 and 90 points.by seasons end.