In my quest to pinpoint why our Penguins are so bad when it comes to playing with and protecting leads, I suggested in a recent post that the collective age of the players we rely on at crunch time may be a significant factor.
I may have been closer to the mark than I know.
According to the web site, HockeyStats.com, a number of our big guns (not to mention golden oldies) are among the worst players in the league when it comes to even strength defensive WAR, or EVD.
Before I go any further, I confess I haven’t a clue in terms of the methodology used to develop the ratings and rankings. However, the results, based on a two-season sample (’24-25 & ’25-26) sure do match the eye test. They go a long way to explain why we struggle to protect leads.
For example, Bryan Rust, who I personally regard as a poor defensive player, is ranked 912th out of 914 skaters with an EVD of -2.0. Erik Karlsson, whose defensive shortcomings are well-documented, checks in at 907th with an EVD of -1.7.
Next on the list of defensively deficient? Evgeni Malkin, ranked 876th with an EVD of -1.0, then Kris Letang (832, -0.6). Skipping ahead just a bit, Sidney Crosby (754, -0.3).
In plain English, the guys we lean on the most, often at the end of games, are our worst defensive players. Talk about stacking the deck in the other team’s favor!
Unfortunately, some of our second-tier guys every bit as bad, including Tommy Novak (817, -0.5) and Justin Brazeau (776, -0.4).
As an aside, guess who was on the ice when Beckett Sennecke of Anaheim skated through our entire team back on December 9 to score a shorthanded goal with a fraction of a second left? If you answered Crosby, Novak, Rust, Karlsson and Letang you’re correct.
Talk about your poor choices!
So who are our options? Do we have anyone with favorable EVDs?
The answer is yes, including some surprises.
Newly acquired Brett Kulak is 15th among all NHL skaters with EVD of 1.4. Parker Wotherspoon ranks 52nd with an EVD of 0.9. Rickard Rakell is 59th with an EVD of 0.8. Ryan Graves (!), 101st and 0.6, respectively.
Not surprisingly, our buzz-saw fourth line of Blake Lizotte (147th, 0.4), Noel Acciari (165th, 0.4) and Connor Dewar (238th, 0.2) all have solid EVDs.
A short list of the players coach Dan Muse should consider riding at crunch time as opposed to our defensively challenged stars.
Here’s a complete listing of black-and-gold EVDs from worst to best for games played through December 16. Again, out of 914 NHL players ranked.
| FORWARDS | ||
| Player | Rank | EVD |
| Rust | 912 | -2.0 |
| Malkin | 876 | -1.0 |
| Novak | 817 | -0.5 |
| Brazeau | 776 | -0.4 |
| Crosby | 754 | -0.3 |
| Tomasino | 710 | -0.2 |
| Hayes, K. | 622 | -0.1 |
| Hallander | 600 | -0.1 |
| Mantha | 578 | -0.1 |
| Koivunen | 563 | 0.0 |
| McGroarty | 536 | 0.0 |
| Koppanen | 465 | 0.0 |
| Imama | 374 | 0.0 |
| Heinen | 289 | 0.1 |
| Kindel | 282 | 0.1 |
| Dewar | 238 | 0.2 |
| Acciari | 165 | 0.4 |
| Lizotte | 147 | 0.4 |
| Rakell | 59 | 0.8 |
| DEFENSE | ||
| Player | Rank | EVD |
| Karlsson | 907 | -1.7 |
| Letang | 832 | -0.6 |
| Dumba | 780 | -0.4 |
| St. Ivany | 446 | 0.0 |
| Brunicke | 431 | 0.0 |
| Jones | 384 | 0.0 |
| Shea | 332 | 0.1 |
| Pickering | 327 | 0.1 |
| Clifton | 237 | 0.2 |
| Graves | 101 | 0.6 |
| Wotherspoon | 52 | 0.9 |
| Kulak | 15 | 1.4 |
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View Comments
Hey Rick, Patrick from HockeyStats.com. Thanks for using/featuring our data and awesome article!
Thanks Patrick!
Great web site...tons of phenomenal data and metrics! Especially love the player cards!
Rick
Interestingly enough Rick, these lost leads are occurring now, after Geno has been injured. Before the big Russian was injured, the team was 8th in the league in terms of Pnts%. Since Geno was injured, the guy sooo many uber talking head's like to lambast was injured the team is 0-3-4
Add in the fact that Muse has moved an 18 year old kid who belongs in the Jrs to 2nd Line Center and has refusal to use the 23 year Goalie, Joel Blomqvist, who was the teams best Goalie in Oct and Nov last season and the 21 year old Sergei Murashov waste away in the AHL, dominating (0.935 and 0.941 Sv% respectively), not learning a thing because the average AHL player is well below their skill level and the powers that be talk out of both sides of their mouths, saying Blomqvist and Murashov are too young. The crap that Muse (and obviously Dubas) tolerates couldn't stop a beachball rolled at them.
Now let's add in the fact the team has played 3 more games this season on 1 days rest or less, compared to last season at this time - with all 7 games without Geno part of those games on 1 day or less.
Hockey is a marathon and all teams eventually suffer injuries when their players are really playing hard. Even stars get injured when, particularly when they aren't coasting.
Will this team start winning again when Geno gets back and to a lesser extent Lizotte? I am not as worried as you. However, this team will not really start reaching its potential until Dubas and Muse stop being hypocrites and Skinner and Silovs are buried in the AHL and Blomqvist and Murashov are elevated to share this Goal.
Also add in dumping Kevin Hayes, Danton Heinen, and Noel Acciari and elevating Tristan Broz and Avery Hayes.
The answer to your lead question is obvious: Mike Sullivan. He was such a terrible coach that even after he's gone every bad thing that happens is his fault.
All seriouness aside, you explanation doesn't answer the question. Why are they good enough to get a bog lead in the first two periods only to collapse in the third? Citing EVD doesn't explain this, which is the big question. Further, stats are merely descriptions of what has happened. They are not explanations of why it happened.
PS. Aren't people who blamed Sullivan for the blow leads last year feeling a bit silly now? If they aren't, they should.
Hey Outsider,
I may not definitively answer the question...one would have to catalog exactly who's on the ice for how many minutes at which stage of the game to put a finer point on things. But I think I'm on the right track. Perhaps you read through this paragraph:
"In plain English, the guys we lean on the most, often at the end of games, are our worst defensive players. Talk about stacking the deck in the other team’s favor!"
Put five guys out on the ice at crunch time with poor EVDs as we often do with Crosby, Malkin, Rust, Karlsson and Letang? It doesn't take a rocket scientist to connect the dots.
Rick
PS--Sullivan isn't the antichrist, but he doesn't exactly have the Rangers walking on water, either.
It was time for him to go, and had been for a couple of years.