Among the questions clattering around in the back of my mind regarding the coming NHL season? How will the New York Rangers fare under Mike Sullivan? Which leads to a second question. Namely, will our Penguins finish ahead of the Blueshirts?
Of course, there are a ton of variables that come into play. The Pens’ outlook could be altered dramatically if POHO/GM Kyle Dubas trades one or more of three key veterans rumored to be on the block, Erik Karlsson, Rickard Rakell and/or Bryan Rust.
For the sake of making a prediction, we’ll go with what we got.
As presently constructed, the Pens are an intriguing bunch. Potentially, we could have three decent scoring lines, supported by a gritty, defensive-minded fourth line, with plenty of depth options if needed.
The obvious question marks lie on the far side of the blue line. Especially given Karlsson’s sporadic (nomadic?) d-zone play, Kris Letang’s decline and starter Tristan Jarry’s erratic puck-stopping.
However, there are some wildcards. Maybe one (or both) of Parker Wotherspoon and Alexander Alexeyev turns out to be a pleasant surprise. Maybe (hopefully) Owen Pickering continues to develop. Maybe new head coach Dan Muse and his staff can fix Ryan Graves to the point where he’s at least serviceable. And maybe, just maybe, an improved defense can better protect our heretofore harried and underperforming goalies.
That’s a whole lot of maybes and not too many sure bets. But if all goes well and Muse & Co. have the positive impact I anticipate, I can see us pushing for a wildcard berth. I’m not saying we’ll qualify. But I can envision an 85-point-ish season.
As for the New Yorkers? Optimism abounds in the Big Apple with two-time Stanley Cup winner Sullivan taking charge behind the bench, understandably so. Will Sully’s fiercely competitive nature and driving presence provide a much-needed wakeup call and shove the Rangers back into the playoff picture?
Although only one season removed from a Presidents’ Trophy, the Blueshirts, too, are a team in transition. Gone through trades are a host of young hopefuls who were previously viewed as building blocks, including forwards Filip Chytil and Kaapo Kakko and hulking blueliner K’Andre Miller. Veteran power forward/scorer Chris Kreider has departed as well, dealt to Anaheim where he’ll join former Rags captain Jacob Trouba in exile.
On the plus side, Chris Drury did land arguably the top free-agent defenseman from this summer’s uninspired crop, Vladislav Gavrikov, to pair with former Norris Trophy winner Adam Fox. The Rangers’ GM also secured the services of budding RFA power forward Will Cuylle for two more seasons.
However, the Rangers’ core is aging. Leading scorer Artemi Panarin is 33 going on 34. J.T. Miller, Vincent Trocheck and Mika Zibanejad, who experienced a downturn this past season, are 32. Of the 23 players listed on New York’s PuckPedia roster, nine are 30 and over. That doesn’t include 33-year-old ex-Pen and Sullivan fave, Conor Sheary, invited to camp on a PTO. (If I squint my eyes, it isn’t hard to envision the 5’8″ Sheary bumping aside 6’9″ heavyweight Matt Rempe in Sully’s scheme.)
How will the Rangers, especially the veterans, adapt to Sullivan’s aggressive, puck-retrieval/forechecking system, which places a premium on speed? How will hulking, stay-at-home defenders like Will Borgen and Carson Soucy perform if they’re asked given a mandate to join the rush? Will it result in a sea of breakdowns and odd-man breaks against as it did in the ‘Burgh?
If so, life could get miserable awfully quick for stud goalie Igor Shesterkin and his 39-year-old backup, Jonathan Quick (pun intended).
Factor in a so-so, aging bottom six? While I’m not predicting a Rangers collapse, I don’t think they’re going to be world beaters, either. Not by a long shot.
Back to my original question. Will the Pens finish ahead of the Rangers?
Provided Dubas doesn’t make any drastic changes, I think we have a better than 50/50 chance to do just that.
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Rick
The Rangers may boast a deeper roster, but the real edge is between the pipes. With Igor Shesterkin anchoring the crease and Jonathan Quick providing reliable backup, New York’s goaltending could be the deciding factor. The bigger question? Which team — the Rangers or the Penguins
will be the first to make a run at Stanley Cup. I don't see that happening
for either team in 2025-2026, and for sure not the Pen's.
Hey Mike,
It is true that in his 12 GP in 2019-2020, Shesterkin posted a 0.932 Sv% and in 2021-2022, in 53 GP he posted a 0.935 Sv%, excellent numbers, but over the last three seasons his has come down to earth posting a 0.916, 0.912, 0.905 respectively for a three season average of 0.911.
In that stellar season where he posted a 0.935 Sv% Shesterkin either had better rebound control, or his defense cleaned up better for him. Over the last three seasons, he has averaged about 2 more rebound attempts against per 60 minutes. He also has been facing about 1 more rush attempt against per 60 minutes since his Vezina season. The way Sullivan wants his teams playing defense, the rush attempts against do not figure to go down, nor do the defensemen figure to help out much with the rebounds.
If you project Shesterkins Sv% over the last 3 seasons (0.827 HDSv%, 0.898 MDSv%, and 0.969 LDSv%) against the SA/60 for each of those categories Sullivan’s teams have averaged giving up these last 3 seasons (8.22, 8.30, and 12.54) that translates into a Sv% of 0.909. That 0.909 will represent a bump up from his Sv% of 0.905 of last season, but it doesn’t figure to move the needle much for the Rangers W column.
At 39 Quick hasn’t fared much better over these last three seasons with Sv% of 0.901, 0.911, and 0.893. If we project him out like I did for Shesterkin his Sv% comes up a hair too, 0.898. A 0.898 is definitely not going to win many games.
I haven’t invested much time in looking at the Rangers, but I wouldn’t expect Shestekin to make that great of a difference in the Rangers fortunes.
Rick
Also, it will be interesting to see how Sullivan handles Rempe.
Hey RIck,
I haven't really dusted off my crystal ball yet to try and peer into next April, however a couple of things
The latest Power Rankings on the NHL network may not share the optimism same New Yorkers may have, even with or possibly due to Sullivan's presence on the bench. The Rangers are conspicuously absent from that roll call (as is our Penguins)
I can potentially see an uptick in the play of Crosby, Malkin, Karlsson, and Letang with the removal of Sullivan from the picture. I can even see better numbers coming from the Penguins resident turnstile, Tristan Jarry, should the team abandon Sullivan's opposite world defense and Muse start asking Defenders to Defend and Forwards attack, instead of Teflon Mike's "let's send Marcus Pettersson into the attacking zone on the rush and ask Evgeni Malkin or Sidney Crosby to cover his vacated point position. However, if Muse repairs the Defense, any benefit Jarry might see would be magnified exponentially in Blomqvist or Murashov (not that I would be willing to risk that).
There in lies my quandary, play Jarry and give the team the best opportunity to tank, or bury (or trade if a Scuderi miracle could repeat itself) Jarry and try to actually win..
AS for the Bottom 6. I can't agree with you. Mantha's best contribution will be to be this season's Eller or Beauvillier, play well enough to earn more draft capital. The laws of probability say Novak will hurt the team more than help, he is a defensive nightmare needing a herculean effort from his line mates to keep him from drowning. Tomasino is streak player who will more than likely start the season off on fire, then after a month disappear. If he isn't traded while he is hot, the bottom 6 will vanish with him.
Like Jarry, if the aim is to tank, by all means play these guys, but if the goal is to be competitive, open up the gates for homegrown products.
Koivunen also ranks as a wild card. If the young gun fully delivers on his promise, then this team can really surprise people. No, not win the Cup, but play well enough to not get any shot at McKenna.