With the March 6 NHL trade deadline looming just around the corner, Penguins POHO/GM Kyle Dubas no doubt has some heavy-duty decisions to make concerning the team’s future direction. And not a whole lot of time to make them.
Should he swing for the fences in an effort to improve the team’s chances and make a play for, say, Blues forward Jordan Kyrou, rumored to be available? Should he selectively add, much like he has in his recent deals for Egor Chinakhov and Samuel Girard? Or should he seize the opportunity to move some veterans who are likely to be in demand while opening up opportunities for the kids?
A crossroads, indeed.
Prior to the Olympics, the Pens were one of the surprise teams in the league. Picked to be a bottom-feeder by most experts, instead they ran up 70 points, fifth best in the tough Eastern Conference and ninth-best overall.
Thanks to a 15-4-4 run, they looked like a team that not only could make the playoffs, but perhaps make some noise once they got there.
That, of course, was prior to the grim news that scoring ace Sidney Crosby will miss the next month with an injury sustained at the Olympics.
Does Sid’s absence alter Dubas’s plans? Should it?
The Pens have actually done surprisingly well without Sid in recent years. Something like 18-7-5 according to a KDKA TV report in our last 30 games minus our captain. His absence may not be the death knell everyone is anticipating. Especially since the team possesses four potent lines and plenty of scoring depth as constructed.
On the flip side, five of those forwards are on expiring contracts, including Evgeni Malkin, 20-goal man Anthony Mantha, fourth-line pepper pots Noel Acciari and Connor Dewar, and depth forward Kevin Hayes.
Although signed longer-term to team-friendly deals, mainstays Rickard Rakell and Bryan Rust have also popped up in trade rumors from time-to-time.
On defense Connor Clifton, Ryan Shea and newcomer Ilya Solovyov are pending UFAs. Matt Dumba, too.
In goal, Stuart Skinner.
That’s a huge chunk of the roster that could be on the move over the next several months. Should Dubas strike while the iron’s hot at the deadline with an eye toward opening up some roster spots while further stockpiling draft capital?
A quick glance at the Baby Pens scoring list suggests several players may be ready to join the big boys. Knocking on the door? Five forwards who’ve already spent time with the Pens this season, including Avery Hayes (already with the team), piping-hot Ville Koivunen, Rutger McGroarty, Filip Hållander and Baby Pens scoring leader Tristan Broz.
Feisty Tanner Howe, fresh off a lengthy rehab for a knee injury, has popped four goals and seven points in his first eight pro games.
In goal, All-Star Sergei Murashov has been nothing short of brilliant (2.13 GAA, .924 SV%, 20-6-1 record). Tandem-mate and former All-Star Joel Blomqvist has faded in his past eight appearances (.886 SV%) following an outstanding start.
Defense is a different story, as no one would appear promotable aside from long-shot possibilities Owen Pickering and the resurgent Dumba.
My guess? Dubas already has a pretty good handle on who he’d like to move and who he wants to retain. For instance, I’ve already heard rumblings that he may be amenable to flipping Skinner, just as he recently did with trade-mate Brett Kulak. Which presumably would open up a spot for Murashov.
While I’m certainly in favor of any move that improves the team, I’m against a massive chop job that might detract from it. The current bunch has displayed a marvelous chemistry and esprit de corps, reminding me very much of the original Vegas “Misfits” who went to the Cup Final in 2018. At least let this group play out the next five games leading up to the deadline. If they falter, then perhaps it green lights a more aggressive approach to changes.
Too, a reminder that not all that glitters down on the farm is prospect gold. What shines in the AHL may not in the NHL, a much faster league. Koivunen, a prime example (31 points in 25 games with the Baby Pens, five points in 27 games with the Pens).
With the notable exception of Hayes (possibly McGroarty and Murashov, too) let the kids percolate a bit longer. There’ll be plenty of opportunities to make alterations and open up spots over the summer. No need to force-feed changes right now.
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The Problem with waiting and letting this team play out the next 5 games is that
A) Trade values could drop if players performance drops. There is a real chance that the Pens will have nothing to show for their Guentzel trade because they waited too long.
B) It takes more than a minute to hammer out deals. Waiting until after the Buffalo game on March 5th will leave less than 24 hours to make a deal; that is a recipe for disaster
C) The Penguins have to play 3 Back-to-Back weekends in March and play pretty much every other night. The team could conceivably go 3 and 2 over these next 5 games while they are still relatively healthy and then tank over the rest of March.
Imagine if the team had picked up only half of the points Silovs and Jarry squander at the beginning of the season, the cushion for the team would be a whole lot better - but let's keep rolling out pathetic Goalies and expect different results.