It’s fair to say that in his three short seasons at the Penguins’ helm, Kyle Dubas has done a marvelous job of refilling what were largely barren prospect coffers.
In the process, he’s transformed Wilkes-Barre/Scranton from a team stocked largely with has-beens and never-weres into one of the youngest and arguably most talented clubs in the AHL.
Indeed, the Baby Pens ooze promise, particularly up front. Point-per-gamers Ville Koivunen and Rutger McGroarty, along with speedy Avery Hayes, could fill forward slots for the Pens in the near future. So might Tristan Broz, Atley Calvert, Gabe Klassen, feisty Tanner Howe and slick Russian setup man Mikhail Ilyin.
Beyond the Wilkes crew, 2025 first-rounders Bill Zonnon, Will Horcoff and fellow draftees Ryan Miller, Jordan Charron and Kale Dach could emerge down the road.
We’re so deep between the pipes that Joel Blomqvist, a ’23-24 AHL All-Star, has taken a back seat to goalie-of-the-future Sergei Murashov with the Baby Pens, while ECHL standout Taylor Gauthier remains buried at Wheeling.
Only on defense does our organizational depth seem questionable. Still, 20-year-old Harrison Brunicke possesses all the tools. Although the clock’s ticking, there’s still time for ’22 first-rounder Owen Pickering to pan out. Finn Harding, Jake Livanavage and rugged Chase Pietila could as well. Fellow rearguards Quinn Beauchesne, Peyton Kettles, Brady Peddle, Emil Pieniniemi and Charlie Tretheway are at various stages in the development pipeline.
There’s just one catch, but it’s huge. With the possible exceptions of Murashov and Brunicke, none of the aforementioned players projects to be a star, let alone a franchise player. Indeed, the ones who do make it will likely fill supporting roles.
Put another way, we’ve got lots of Colby Armstrongs, Tyler Kennedys and Max Talbots but nary a Sidney Crosby.
Ben Kindel may one day emerge as a second-line center. But that’s about as close as we get.
So how do we procure the next Sid? Or more to the point, the next Macklin Celebrini, who rang up 115 points as a 19-year-old for the Sharks this season.
A glance back at our own history suggests we need to be really bad to get really good. In the early ‘80s, then-GM Eddie Johnston took a wrecking ball to his “Boys of Winter” in order to draft incomparable franchise-saver Mario Lemieux. An equally ghastly stretch in the early 2000s and an exceptionally fortunate drop of a ping-pong ball led to selecting Evgeni Malkin and Crosby in successive drafts.
The odds of being that lucky again?
Literally, a gazillion-to-one.
Will the Pens need to experience a similar downturn in order to secure a franchise player?
It sure seems that way.
Although it was great to have such a successful season, it didn’t do us any favors from a drafting standpoint. We’re currently slated to pick 22nd overall in the upcoming draft. Which is where we selected Zonnon last summer and roughly where we took Pickering and Sam Poulin before that.
It remains to be seen whether or not Dubas can work his magic and trade up to take advantage of what appears to be a deep draft on the front end.
With Dubas committed to rebuilding on the fly versus tanking, do we have any options?
Florida GM Bill Zito built the Panthers into back-to-back champions, in part, by shrewdly acquiring four former top-six picks, Sam Bennett, Seth Jones, Sam Reinhart and Matthew Tkachuk, from other clubs.
Could Dubas, who’s displayed a similarly keen eye and opportunistic bent for undervalued talent (Egor Chinakhov) do the same?
The Stars are in a bit of a pickle concerning scoring sensation Jason Robertson. The 26-year-old sniper is a pending RFA and due a hefty raise. While it stands to reason the Stars will do everything in their power to shoehorn him in under the cap, could Dubas swoop in and entice Dallas GM Jim Nill to part with the three-time 40-goal-man with a combination of picks, prospects and an established veteran like Rickard Rakell or Bryan Rust?
Ditto the Leafs and Auston Matthews?
The Erik Karlsson blockbuster of three summers ago suggests Dubas is able.
It remains to be seen if he will.
The alternative? Like it or not, when our big three of Crosby, Malkin and Kris Letang depart (perhaps even before) the Pens are likely headed for a downturn, intentional or not. Which could once again lead to culling a cornerstone player from the draft.
Thus, perpetuating the cycle…
