I’ve written on at least two occasions how much I like and admire the work Penguins POHO/GM Kyle Dubas has done since the last trade deadline.
SCRAAAAAATCH.
That sound you just heard (read) was me dragging the needle across the phonograph record. Another way of saying all good things must come to an end.
This reaction is pure knee-jerk, mind you. But at first blush, I decidedly, unabashedly and unequivocally do not like the deal Dubas swung today, sending defenseman Brett Kulak to Colorado for defenseman Samuel Girard and a 2028 second-round pick.
Basically, Matt Grzelcyk heavy or light, depending on your perspective.
While I fully realize Kulak is a pending UFA, he was IMHO a well-rounded defender who did everything reasonably well. Not the least of which was stabilize Kris Letang, who played his best hockey of the season when paired with the ex-Oiler. Which basically means we may have surrendered not one but two effective defensemen in the deal.
I confess, I don’t know a ton about Girard other than the fact that he’s a mobile puck-mover who consistently produces around 30 points. Decent Corsi and xGF%. Under water in terms of actual 5v5 goals for percentage. Poor WAR metrics, according the last JFresh chart I could locate, which admittedly was a couple of years old.
Way undersized at 5’10” 170.
Yeah, that’ll work when defending the net front. Especially if he’s paired with Letang.
Like I said, a Grzelcyk redux.
The shame of it is, the Pens had a really nice blend of skill and stay-at-home physicality prior to this deal. A balance we seem fated to screw up.
Remind me again what type of hockey prevails in the postseason. Kill ‘em with skill or pound ‘em into dust?
Guess which one Girard’s built for? (Hint, it ain’t the latter.)
Searching for positives, perhaps Dubas feels Ilya Solovyov can eventually fill Kulak’s role. And Girard is well-equipped to support coach Dan Muse’s connected, pedal-to-the-metal style.
But, hoo boy, watch out for the goals against to be on the rise on the back end.
Cap-wise, the 27-year-old, left-shot rearguard is under contract for another season at $5 million. Not a drop in the bucket, but not egregious, either.
Hopefully, the deal work outs and Girard makes me eat my words. But for now (grumble)…
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Rick,
In my opinion, this is a straightforward decision for Dubas. I don’t believe Girard fits into their long-term plans. Essentially, they paid to acquire an additional second-round pick, which is a very smart move on Dubas’s part.
If my calculations are correct, the Penguins will end up paying Girard $1.6 million. They owed Kulak $916,000 and change, so in effect, Dubas purchased a second-round pick for approximately $700,000.
It’s a great move, and my guess is they have no intention of signing Girard in the offseason.
Hey all.
Just a quick follow-up. After the fact, I located an up-to-date JFresh WAR chart for Girard. Much improved over his chart from a couple of years ago.
-- Even-strength offensive WAR: 91%
-- Even-strength defensive WAR: 45%
-- Overall WAR: 84%
It seems to fall in line with many of Dubas's recent additions, who have likewise have solid analytics.
Also, just to clarify, Girard has been a strong plus player this season after being underwater (below 50%) in 5v5 goals for percentage the last three seasons.
I still have misgivings about his lack of size and the fact that this deal seems to throw our defense out of balance.
Rick
Correction on my last post - Girard doesn't become a free agent until the end of the 2026-27 season. So
my theory becomes a little distorted. LOL
Hello Mike,
Even a little distorted, your theory still holds water ... :)
No doubt this is yet another in a long (and often brilliant) string of moves by Dubas designed to incrementally improve the team while adding draft capital. A job he's done spectacularly well.
My main beef is, I think Kulak was a better fit for what we need now, while Dubas is perhaps keeping an eye cast on the future. Too, a Girard-Letang pairing scares me to death.
Hope all is well my friend!
Rick