Penguins Free Agents: Who Do We Keep?

I’m jumping the gun, and more than just a tad with this article. After all, we’re just entering the stretch run on the current season, to say nothing of a possible postseason berth.

However, a recent conversation with a colleague who suggested we need to start promoting the kids got me to thinking ahead to free agency. More specifically, who among our pending free agents should Kyle Dubas sign? On the flip side, who should he allow to walk?

Before I begin, here’s a quick list of our pending free agents. All are UFAs-to-be unless otherwise noted.

Forwards: Acciari, Chinakhov (RFA), Dewar, K. Hayes, Koivunen (RFA), Malkin, Mantha

Defense: Clifton, Dumba, Shea, Solovyov

Goal: Šilovs (RFA), Skinner

It goes without saying, there are some pretty big names, not to mention key contributors, on the list.

Enjoying a career season, Anthony Mantha is second on the team in goals (26) and third in points (53). Productive power forwards don’t grow on trees. Right behind him, Evgeni Malkin leads all Pens forwards in assists (36) while scoring at better than a point-per-game clip.

You can’t overlook the contributions made by Noel Acciari and Connor Dewar. Along with Blake Lizotte, who is signed, they’ve formed arguably the best fourth line in the league. Certainly the most effective we’ve had in the ‘Burgh since goodness knows when.

The only easy, let-him-walk decision among the forwards? Good-guy veteran Kevin Hayes.

The choices are simpler if no less critical on defense. Ryan Shea is the only prominent blueliner facing free agency. While I like Connor Clifton and am mildly curious about Ilya Solovyov, they aren’t irreplaceable. Despite a strong season with the Baby Pens, Matt Dumba obviously doesn’t figure in the team’s plans.

In goal, both Stuart Skinner and RFA Arturs Šilovs are up for new deals.

Before making decisions, it’s important to perform an inventory of the kids to determine who might be ready for full-time NHL duty. Among the forward prospects, Tristan Broz and Rutger McGroarty have been productive for the Baby Pens, as have Avery Hayes (19 goals) and Ville Koivunen (33 points in 28 games).

Making his way back from ACL surgery, scrappy Tanner Howe’s put up decent numbers as well. It’s been a bit of a lost season for Filip Hållander, but the 25-year-old Swede showed well for the Pens before being sidelined with a blood clot.

Recent first-rounders Will Horcoff and Bill Zonnon could be in the mix, too, although my guess is both will require some seasoning in the minors.

Outside of North America, playmaking forward Mikael Ilyin is enjoying another strong season in the KHL. It isn’t hard to envision him meshing with countrymen Malkin and Egor Chinakhov, a pending RFA who’ll surely be re-upped.

On defense, the prospect pickins’ (Pickerings?) are considerably slimmer. Harrison Brunicke is our best hope. He, too, will likely serve an apprenticeship at Wilkes. Although injury prone, fellow right-sider Jack St. Ivany could be in line for full-time duty. The organization doesn’t appear to be that high on former first-rounder Owen Pickering.

In goal, we boast plums Sergei Murashov and Joel Blomqvist, although the latter has struggled during the second half.

Who Do We Keep?

I’ll work backwards starting in goal. I think Dubas re-signs Šilovs and allows Skinner to depart. Paving the way for Murashov to be promoted.

On defense? We re-sign Shea, who’s enjoying a breakout season (28 points, plus-24). His ability to play either side and work somewhat effectively with Kris Letang make him indispensable.

Just a guess, but I think we’ll promote St. Ivany and allow Clifton and Dumba to depart. I’m in the air concerning Solovyov, who’s had both his moments and struggles.

Up front is where we face the most daunting decisions.

I’ve mentioned this before but it bears repeating: not all that glitters on the farm is prospect gold.

Case in point: Koivunen, McGroarty and Avery Hayes all have produced big numbers for the Baby Pens. For the varsity, a whole other kettle of fish. A combined six goals and 14 points in 64 collective games.

(Note: Although I think we will, I’m not 100 percent convinced we’ll extend an offer to RFA-to-be Koivunen.)

Then there’s the not-so-small matter of fit. Just because a prospect’s deemed ready doesn’t mean there’s a slot awaiting him. Broz has enjoyed two solid seasons in the AHL (33 goals, 71 points in 104 games). However, with Sidney Crosby, Tommy Novak, Ben Kindel and Lizotte ahead of Tristan on the center depth chart, his chances look slim unless he shifts to wing or Dubas clears a spot via trade.

Okay, so here’s my best guess.

I think Dubas re-signs Malkin, if Geno agrees to a one-year deal. He’ll make an offer to Mantha, who’ll no doubt be a hot commodity. Whether we land Big Moe or not is anyone’s guess.

I believe our POHO/GM allows Dewar (who I’d personally re-sign) and Acciari to walk, creating openings on the fourth line for McGroarty and Avery Hayes. Possibly Howe as well. Newcomer Elmer Söderblom, impressive thus far, could factor into the mix.

So much depends on whether or not we re-sign Malkin and Mantha. If we don’t, look for Dubas to swing a deal or two and/or make some savvy free-agent signings. Improving and restocking the defense will be an obvious priority.

My biggest concern if we experience significant turnover? How will it affect our exemplary chemistry and esprit de corps, to say nothing of our battle readiness?

I’m reminded of the 2022-23 Kraken. They were a solid team from top to bottom, boasting six 20-goal scorers and seven more players who tallied double-figure goals. One that upset the defending Cup champion Avalanche in the first round of the playoffs and gave the Stars all they could handle in the second round. Similar in a lot of ways to our present Pens. 

Then came the offseason, changes were made, and the Kraken have been slow to recover.

I’m aware that sometimes you need to take a step back in order to go forward. But I would hate to see a similar regression happen to our Pens. Especially now that we appear to be turning the corner.

Bottom line? Don’t force a youth movement like other teams have.

Let the kids earn their spots.