It’s no secret Penguins GM Kyle Dubas was hoping to make a splash move or two (or three) over the summer. For one, there was his hotly rumored (and ultimately fruitless) pursuit of Stars RFA sniper Jason Robertson. Apparently, Dubas also tried mightily to trade up (or down?) during the Entry Draft, perhaps in an attempt to gain leverage for other deals.
While he was able to land Jason’s kid brother, Nicholas, in a swap with Toronto, our POHO/GM was largely unable to execute the third spoke of his plan: acquiring young talent from other organizations in need of a change of scenery. Unless you count former Cap Hendrix Lapierre.
According to Dan Kingerski of Pittsburgh Hockey Now, a shifting trade market featuring rising prices coupled with diminishing returns pretty much put the kybosh on Dubas’ plans.
As the last sands of the off-season trickle through the hour glass, is there still time to make a high-impact move? One that could potentially alter the course of the franchise for seasons to come.
Perhaps.
Roughly 185 miles due west as the crow flies, a situation is brewing in Columbus involving Adam Fantilli. The rising young star is still without a contract and by all accounts is unhappy with what Blue Jackets GM Don Waddell is offering. Fantilli’s rumored to be seeking a deal in the neighborhood of $15 million per season. Connor Bedard-type money.
According to Puckpedia, the Jackets have $12.6 million in available cap space. You do the math.
What makes Fantilli special? The former University of Michigan standout (and teammate of Rutger McGroarty) was picked third overall in the 2023 draft, two slots behind Bedard. Since entering the NHL as a callow 19-year-old rookie, he’s produced a highly respectable 67 goals and 140 points in 213 regular-season games. An average of roughly 54 points per 82-game slate.
Embedded in those numbers, a 31-goal season in 2024-25.
As for his attributes? Fantilli’s big (6’2” 205). He’s durable. He’s a strong skater who possesses a high motor, excellent puck skills and a booming shot. Most important, he projects to be a first-line center. Those guys don’t grow on trees. And with Sidney Crosby approaching his dotage?
You see the fit.
An RFA, Fantilli is offer-sheet eligible. However, given his projected salary, it would cost a team their next four first-round picks.
Ouch. Too rich for my blood.
PP colleague Caleb DiNatale, who first broached the subject of acquiring Fantilli during a recent conversation (and inspired this article), prefers to go the trade route.
“What would it cost us?” I asked.
At the very least, Caleb thinks we’d have to pony up two legit prospects and a first-round pick. He specifically mentioned one of two budding power forwards, Bill Zonnon or Will Horcoff, along with McGroarty.
Doing the math on the Pens’ end, we have $10.9 million in cap space. So we’d also need to shed salary (i.e. Rickard Rakell or Bryan Rust) to be able to meet Fantilli’s contract demands.
Would such a deal be worth it?
Yes.
Is it likely to happen?
After all, Dubas and Waddell hooked up on last season’s Egor Chinakhov swap, which worked out extremely well for our Pens. Could the two do business again?
In this case, I’d say probably not.
Yet as a friend is fond of saying, “You just never know.”
Pens Prospects Prevail
Speaking of the Pens and Blue Jackets, our kids prevailed over the CBJ youngsters, 2-1, in a shootout yesterday afternoon at the Prospects Tournament in Detroit.
Forward Brayden Edwards, who split time between the Baby Pens and Nailers last season, scored our regulation goal. Recent draftees Tomas Galvas and Pierce Mbuyi tallied in the shootout.
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Rick,
I have no idea what will happen, Dubas is stupid enough to do anything. Also, our friend who has yet to fail us in terms of information has said that Dubas is still looking for his homerun.
In 2018 KD signed John Tavares to an $11 million contract for 7 years or 13.9% of the salary cap ($70 Million that year) at the time and look what happened in Toronto. No team to date has ever won a Stanley Cup while paying a player $10 million per year. The Salary Cap has climbed to $104 Million. I will save you the math Rick, $15 Million is $14.28% of this season's Salary Cap. I keep saying that Kyle Du(m)bas is turning Pittsburgh into Toronto Part Deux! and if DUbas does pull off the deal you and Caleb are purposing then he will have effectively done just that, turned Pgh into Tor II. Worse, although KD will have given you and Caleb the big name star you want, history says that the laws of probability condemn our Penguins to more frustration.
I marvel at so many peoples obsessions with name recognition even at the expense of winning title.
Hey Other Rick,
I hear and certainly understand your concerns about the economics. I don't care for current financial state of affairs, either. IMHO, Daniel Briere did incalculable damage to the sport by offering Leo Carlsson, a very good and rising young player but hardly the next Mario Lemieux, that outrageous $18 million AAV offer sheet. Forcing a young Ducks team that was just beginning to turn the corner to pare assets in order to match.
An assist to Ducks GM Pat Verbeek, who shouldn't have left Carlsson hanging there unsigned like a ripe, red apple waiting to be plucked in the first place.
Unfortunately, it's established an inflated price for players of Fantilli's ilk. If you want a young player of his caliber? You're going to have to ante up.
I'm not saying swinging a deal for Fantilli is the right or prudent thing to do. However, none of our kids are in the same category, and players like the CBJ center don’t come around all that often.
Sooner or later, we're going to need a player of Fantilli’s ability and potential. And when (and if) we come across one, we'll eventually have to pay.
Rick
Does Carolina have anybody paid that high? Yet they won a Stanley Cup. So, would you rather win Stanley Cups or pay a Fantilli $15 mil? Personally, I would rather have 6 players in the $7-9 mil range than 3 players in the $15 mil , supported by a bunch of minimum to $3 mil range. If one of those $15 mils go down your screwed.
Hey Other Rick,
I hear ya, I really do. And your point is well taken. It's always best to put your eggs in multiple baskets instead of one.
To draw a toughness analogy, I'd rather have a number of players sprinkled throughout the lineup who can handle the rough going, rather than relying on a single heavyweight who rarely plays to fight all the team's battles.
Still, if it comes down to having nobody who plays tough and employing a heavyweight, I'll choose the latter.
The Pens and the 'Canes are two entirely different animals. The defending Cup champs are well stocked with what I would describe as second-tier players. They have seven players between the ages of 23-30 who earn in that mid-salary range ($5-$10 million AAV), including forwards Aho, Blake, Ehlers, Jarvis, Stankoven and Svechnikov and defenseman K'Andre Miller.
The Pens have three, Chinakhov, Kuzmenko and Girard. Maybe Zonnon, Horcoff, Brunicke and Murashov eventually develop into those types of players, but we won't know for some time.
When you're that lacking in upper-tier young talent, the kind you need to win Cups? Then maybe you need to stretch the boundaries a bit to secure a player like Fantilli. Especially since we aren't likely to be in a position to draft a kid like that any time soon.
Rick
I hear you too, Rick, but should the team toss $15 mil to Fantilli, they will not be able to stock themselves with many $7-9 mil players. Moreover, so long as they pass on top tier players like Aitcheson and then draft novelty players the next season they aren't likely to draft $7-9 mil players either. Rather than blow $15 mil on Fantilli, I would rather see the team invest that money in scouts, player development and a real Goalie Coach. I know that those are two different animals and Scouts etc are not part of the Cap. Just making a point.