Curious to see how our Penguins are performing against the expected on an individual basis, I decided to post a quick ‘n’ dirty article comparing actual 5v5 goals for percentage (GF%) and expected goals for percentage (xGF%).
I haven’t a clue as to how the expected numbers are calculated, but it sure makes for an interesting read.
Among the players who are far outperforming the expected per Natural Stat Trick? The dynamic Russian duo of Egor Chinakhov and Evgeni Malkin, along with Anthony Mantha and Erik Karlsson. No huge surprises there.
Add Ryan Shea and Rickard Rakell to the list of overachievers as well. Jack St. Ivany, Filip Hållander and Caleb Jones are likewise far outperforming the expected, although in considerably smaller sample sizes.
Players who are performing pretty much as expected include Sidney Crosby, Bryan Rust and Tommy Novak.
Skaters who are underwater in terms of actual versus expected include Kris Letang, Blake Lizotte and Connor Clifton, along with kids Ben Kindel, Rutger McGroarty, and especially Ville Koivunen and Avery Hayes.
Interesting to note that trade mates Brett Kulak and Samuel Girard are virtually in a dead heat.
As for the goalies? Of the four who have backstopped the Pens this season, only Stuart Skinner has a positive 5v5 goals saved above expected (GSAE) mark, according to MoneyPuck. Stats for Skinner and Tristan Jarry include their time with the Pens and Oilers.
Without further ado, here are the numbers. Players are ranked in terms of differential.
| FORWARDS | |||
| Player | GF% | xGF% | Dif |
| Hållander | 63.64 | 49.13 | 14.51 |
| Malkin | 58.73 | 49.21 | 9.52 |
| Chinakhov | 59.52 | 50.91 | 8.61 |
| Mantha | 58.14 | 51.12 | 7.02 |
| Rakell | 55.38 | 50.99 | 4.39 |
| Rust | 53.54 | 49.81 | 3.73 |
| Dewar | 53.97 | 51.32 | 2.65 |
| Brazeau | 53.45 | 51.23 | 2.22 |
| Acciari | 54.17 | 52.35 | 1.82 |
| Crosby | 53.26 | 51.54 | 1.72 |
| Novak | 54.12 | 53.01 | 1.11 |
| Lizotte | 48.84 | 52.42 | -3.58 |
| Kindel | 47.76 | 52.41 | -4.65 |
| McGroarty | 47.62 | 54.27 | -6.65 |
| Soderblom | 37.50 | 46.56 | -9.06 |
| Hayes, K. | 44.44 | 54.11 | -9.67 |
| Heinen | 50.00 | 60.75 | -10.75 |
| Koppanen | 33.33 | 47.21 | -13.88 |
| Broz | 0.00 | 13.93 | -13.93 |
| Koivunen | 40.00 | 56.98 | -16.98 |
| Tomasino | 25.00 | 46.29 | -21.29 |
| Hayes, A. | 25.00 | 52.79 | -27.79 |
| Poulin | 0.00 | 57.50 | -57.50 |
| Imama | — | 66.39 | — |
| DEFENSE | |||
| Player | GF% | xGF% | Dif |
| St. Ivany | 65.00 | 46.20 | 18.80 |
| Jones | 57.14 | 46.14 | 11.00 |
| Karlsson | 59.09 | 52.83 | 6.26 |
| Shea | 55.86 | 50.96 | 4.90 |
| Wotherspoon | 54.05 | 51.52 | 2.53 |
| Kulak | 50.00 | 50.17 | -0.17 |
| Girard | 50.00 | 51.23 | -1.23 |
| Solovyov | 57.89 | 59.22 | -1.33 |
| Letang | 46.00 | 49.05 | -3.05 |
| Graves | 47.06 | 55.34 | -8.28 |
| Clifton | 47.62 | 55.94 | -8.32 |
| Dumba | 35.71 | 49.45 | -13.74 |
| Pickering | 28.57 | 43.60 | -15.03 |
| Brunicke | 33.33 | 50.83 | -17.50 |
| GOALIE | |||
| Player | GA | xGA | GSAE |
| Skinner | 86 | 92.68 | 6.68 |
| Murashov | 8 | 6.76 | -1.24 |
| Šilovs | 62 | 59.88 | -2.12 |
| Jarry | 75 | 69.25 | -5.75 |
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