Well, after a somewhat unflattering performance in the playoffs, the Penguins are once again staring down the barrel of the NHL Draft.
There has been a lot of online speculation about who the Penguins might target and what Kyle Dubas might do. Most of it has honestly been focused in the wrong direction. Articles, sports media, and fans alike have all been talking about trading away the Penguins’ prized first-round pick for players like Jason Robertson, Robert Thomas, Brady Tkachuk, and even Auston Matthews.
All incredible players. Robertson and Tkachuk especially would be great additions among that group. But personally, I’d prefer not to head in that direction. I don’t see — or even believe — that coughing up the amount of capital required to acquire one of them is worth it. I just don’t see a “one more run” scenario with this core simply by adding players like that.
If a “one more run” happens with Sidney Crosby still on the team, it should happen organically, mostly through the younger players developing and smart free-agent additions. If it doesn’t, then don’t force something that clearly isn’t working.
I actually would like Kyle Dubas to focus heavily on the draft. In fact, after acquiring so many players over the previous draft and season, I’d really like to see the Penguins focus on quality over quantity this time around.
And the best way I see to do that is by either trading a roster player for another late first-round pick, or packaging some of those second-round picks together to move up.
Why? Well, I have my eyes set on two players who I believe could end up being some of the biggest steals of the draft based on where they’re currently ranked — rankings that honestly feel unbelievably low to me. Those players are the twin brothers Liam and Markus Ruck, who some of you prospect watchers probably already figured out from the photo above.
Now, the Penguins might not even need two first-round picks to pull this off. Kyle Dubas might actually be able to work his patented “trade down” maneuver. Elite Prospects currently has Liam Ruck ranked at 32nd overall and Markus Ruck at 44th overall. Other mock drafts are fairly similar, usually projecting Liam somewhere in the late first to early second round, while Markus tends to land around the early second as well.
There are a couple reasons why the Ruck brothers are falling this far down boards, and it’s not because they lack star potential. Far from it, actually. For starters, their production is excellent. Both brothers led their team in the WHL the Medicine Hat Tigers in scoring while playing together on the same line. Liam Ruck put up 104 points in 68 games, scoring 45 goals and adding 59 assists. Meanwhile, Markus Ruck led the team outright with 108 points in 68 games, recording 21 goals and a staggering 87 assists.
You’ll probably notice something familiar there — maybe another set of twins we’ve seen in the NHL before. Now, I’m not saying or guaranteeing Liam and Markus turn into Daniel and Henrik Sedin, but I’m also not saying they won’t.
So why have they dropped? Well, the first reason is that most teams view them as a pair that not only should be drafted together, but probably need to play together to be fully optimized. That’s a tough ask for a lot of organizations. These guys aren’t viewed like the Sedins were when they went second and third overall. But then the obvious question becomes: if they’re this good, why aren’t they ranked that high?
There are a few reasons. They’re around the same height as the Sedins at 6-foot-0, but by today’s standards they’re considered undersized, which is a major red flag for a lot of scouts. Markus comes in at just 167 pounds, while Liam is a bit heavier at 177. That’s probably the biggest contributing factor.
The second reason is that they seemingly came out of nowhere. Don’t get me wrong, they looked good before, but not this good. I think some scouts are worried this could end up being more of a flash-in-the-pan breakout rather than a sign of what they truly are long term, despite how dominant they looked together.
The final reason is simply the strength of the draft itself. The top of this class is loaded. You have players like Gavin McKenna, who already looks like a potential generational talent, Ivar Stenberg, who some people argue could even challenge for first overall, and Keaton Verhoeff, who projects as a franchise cornerstone top four, great two way defender on the blue line. There are simply a lot of safer picks teams can make near the top of the board.
But not for a team in the Penguins’ position. I think this is a massive opportunity for Pittsburgh, and honestly one of their best bets for the future. I actually believe the Penguins are very interested in them, too. This just feels like such a Kyle Dubas move.
I’ll do a much deeper dive on them in the future, but part of why I want them — and why I think they fit what Dubas looks for — is because both players are extremely hard workers on and off the ice. They’re smart, reliable, highly competitive players, and one of their best traits in my opinion is how mature they are for their age. There are shades of Ben Kindel there in terms of mentality and approach. That’s the kind of culture you want to build, and it lines up perfectly with what Dubas seems to value.
They’re also similar to Ben Kindel in how they were ranked and overlooked — pushed down the board due to various factors — in much the same way Kindel was. And just like that situation, the Penguins took a swing on him anyway, and he went on to prove it immediately by stepping into the NHL as an 18-year-old rookie and putting up a very impressive 35-point season.
You can already see the stylistic split between the twins as well, very much likes the Sedins where Liam leans more toward being the a goal scorer, while Markus is an elite lane finder and playmaker.
And when you actually watch them play together, it’s honestly a work of art. Both of them seem to instinctively know what the other is going to do, almost like a hive mind. They’re constantly thinking ten steps ahead of everyone else on the ice, weaving through defenders and creating unbelievable plays together.
If the Penguins do end up drafting them, I’ll go much deeper into each player individually. But for now, all we can really do is hope the Penguins have these twins near the very top of their board.
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Hey Caleb.
A long overdue response.
First, welcome back to the writing side! Truly an excellent piece, compelling, entertaining and informative. I've mentioned this to you before, but you should be a writer! ... :)
Again, so well done!
Rick
Hey Rick
No problem, thanks for the high praise!
The Other Rick
All good points. I had the opportunity to watch a few clips of each brother, so my observations are based on a relatively small sample size. In my opinion, Liam appears to have a stronger goal-scoring profile and also seems to possess a slightly better frame for future physical development.
Markus, on the other hand, showed a very good feel for the game and strong hockey IQ in the clips I viewed. However, I did have some concerns regarding his skating, as well as questions about his overall body type and long-term ability to add the necessary strength and weight to handle the demands of the next level.
A couple of really interesting points Mike,
When you talk about their overall body type, many fans never look that closely at young players; it really is telling as to what you do for a living. Some prospects never put weight on at all; their bodies just don't grow. Some prospects can add the muscle mass, but the added weight slows them down to the point of not being effective anymore. Former Penguin POJ comes to mind. Hopefully, this week I will get a chance to look at some of their videos.
Also, with regards to Markus' skating, was it his agility you were looking at, his edgework etc, his first three steps, his turning, what should I be looking for when I watch him?
The Other Rick
First let me say that In my line of work I really hate making evaluations off of highlight clips - Also, the two
Ruck brothers both appear to have NHL qualities. I do think Liam is more physically ready as a goal scorer
to contribute before Markus. Markus skating can appear sluggish, and from the little I watched he lacked
the explosiveness on his initial step. I do think Markus playmaking ability and hockey IQ are elite, and
in the clips I watched he moves the puck quickly when setting up a teammates. In my line of work everyone
has warts, but I try to focus on a players weaknesses and how he compensates, and adjust his game to
translate to the next level. So even though I question Markus skating he does have qualities that may lighten
the impact of his skating. This is obviously an early call but I see Liam (mid teen's 15-19) and Markus (20 - 26).
I believe Markus has more potential but he also comes with more risk. I did locate some other film to
watch - I'll update my initial opinion when I'm able to look at more game tape.
Mike,,
Like you, I do not evaluate off highlight footage; they are promotional material for that player and only show what the player wants you to see. I can't help but think that is how our Penguins drafted Pickering in the 1st round, by only watching the highlight reel that circulated. That reel showed the same stretch pass from multiple, multiple angles, creating the impression that Pickering had great vision and accurate long stretch passes. If you go back to what I wrote that draft year, his actual game films showed a kid who couldn't turn very well on his skates, had a slow first 3 steps, and would lazily glide into the attacking zone when he would lead the rush. He would stop moving his feet, have the puck stripped and then get caught flat-footed when the puck went the other way. Defensively, he would get caught down low, hanging out around the net when the play dissolved, leaving a forward to try and play defense in his stead, he would chase the puck all around his defensive zone like a 6 year old rather than play positional hockey, and despite his height, he would get crushed by smaller foecheckers.
Note: I do think he has improved a lot since he was drafted, but he certainly was never a 1st round pick. He may yet develop into a bottom pairing or 7th D-man and I do hope he does.
My comment about your looking at body types and trying to get a handle on their ability to put weight on their frame was made because so many people lack that critical eye. It is very much like sports itself, great players project/see where the ball or puck is going and get ahead of it and let the play come to them, instead of chasing it, looking at athletes and seeing where their body types will take them is a special thing.
Getting back to Markus, there are plyometric drills that can help to improve those first 3 steps. A former Steeler and I would talk about that all the time when we were in Grad School at Pitt. I used them on a client who was playing in NAHL and was very physically light. He had suffered 3 concussions in less than 2 years because of how physically immature he was and his 1st strength coach never worked on his neck musculature. We got his first 3 steps so fast that he was rarely hit the following season and when he was hit, his body could now take the punishment.
Hopefully, Markus has a Coach that can work on those first 3 steps, particularly if Caleb gets his way and the Pens draft him.
Hey Caleb,
Interesting, well written post.
The only two prospects I have really had a chance to watch game films of so far are J.P. Hurlbert and Ilya Morozov since those are the two names I have seen pop up most around when the Pens are drafting.
However, looking at the Hockey Writers, they show Liam Ruck listed as going as high as 10th (Craig Button) and as far back as 39th (SMAHT Scouting); Central Scouting has him 26th among NA skaters. tHW opinion is similar to yours in that they see some offensive talent in the kid but wonder how much of it is tied to playing on a line with his brother. What I found interesting about tHW scouting report was that they wrote at one point in their article about Liam’s willingness to drive the net but then listed Physicality as a weakness. I am not sure how to reconcile those comments. If a player has the desire to go to the net but not the physicality, it really wouldn’t matter, the results would be the same as if the player didn’t drive the net in the first place.
tHW also aren’t that high on Liam’s defensive game
Markus didn’t get anywhere as much love from tHW or Scouts; his best draft ranking came from Bukala of Sportsnet (24th), Baracchi (tHW) has him at 28th. Button (TSN) has him at 29th, while Ellis (Daily Face Off) has him at 57th and Forbes (tHW) has him at 59th (almost a 3rd rounder). NHL Central Scouting cuts the difference and lists him as 31st among NA skaters. The report I read wrote highly of Markus’ play-making ability and his willingness to go to the net, and even his eye to hand ability with regards to tipping shots. However, with regards to Marcus and net-front, the author of the report wondered out loud about how Ruck’s net-front would translate when he ran into adult hockey, NHL level Defensemen. The report also cast doubts on Markus and his scoring ability, only 29 Gs on 193 SOG in 132 GP. Finally, tHW questioned Markus’ skating.
I will withhold my thoughts until I get a chance to see the Ruck’s play in game films before I really form any opinions though. I usually can find Medicine Hat games online, so that shouldn’t be a problem.
Hey OTR
Yea I'll be going over J.P. Hurlbert and Ilya Morozov in a future article, as well as a few others that fall within the Penguins range as it stands, not a fan of either to be honest.
As for Liam I'd prefer a player who drives the net rather than not, physicality can always be improved. But I also don't feel the need that every player needs to be a big power forward drive the net kind of prospect, I feel we acquired players like that, I prefer high end skill upside right now, because the Penguins need stars in their pool.
Cole Caufield is a good example, not super strong, not necessarily a net driver, but scored 51 goals. He has other big pieces around him, that's what I'd like the pens to do.
If I can have my cake and eat it to, with size and skill that's great, but I don't think the stars are aligned for that in this draft. I think Liams defensive game is fine, he grew in his offensive game this year, he's not necessarily great defensively, but he's not bad either, I'm pleased with his growth overall. Again he can improve defensively, he has the mindset for it, similar to Zonnon and Kindel constantly known for watching tape, known around the organization that both are obsessed and overly serious. The twins are the same in that way.
As for Markus I don't want him driving to the net at all, he's a skilled play maker, I'd prefer he rotate away from that and let other players do that, that's not in his game, he's trying to just learn and to do it all, which is good in young players. But at the Pro level, AHL or otherwise I think coaches would tell him to move that out of his game to be honest.
Caleb,
When I watch game videos of both Hurlbert and Morozov I saw some things I liked, but overall I am not all that excited about either of them - drafting 22nd doesn't give us a shot at much. Most players drafted that late still need a year or two in Juniors.
I still haven't had to find a Ruck video yet, so I still have no opinion yet.
I may decide to believe it would be better to trade this pick. I would consider trying to trade the pick for two of Calgary's four second round picks. I may want to get a kid like Tobias Trejbal, a future Goalie when Blomqvist, Murashov, and Gauthier start getting long in the tooth.