Cup Talk: Can the Penguins Three-peat?

I realize it’s awfully early to ponder our chances for next season. Heck, the sheen’s barely been smudged from the glittering silver surface of the newly captured Cup. However, since so many folks seem to be talking about it, I thought I’d risk appearing presumptuous and toss my two cents in.

Can the Penguins accomplish something that no black-and-gold team—not even the great champions of the early ‘90s—has achieved? Namely, three-peat?

In my humble opinion, it’s highly unlikely but not impossible. In fact, there are ample reasons to believe our guys have a shot.

First, a look at our roster.

Forwards

Talent-wise, the Pens are loaded—at least up front. It wasn’t by accident that the four top point-getters in the postseason—Evgeni Malkin, Sidney Crosby, Phil Kessel and Jake Guentzel—wore the black and gold. Add in second-tier scorers like Patric Hornqvist, Bryan Rust and restricted free agent Conor Sheary? The Pens won’t be hurtin’ for offense.

I didn’t even mention right wing Daniel Sprong, who tallied 32 goals in 31 regular-season games for his junior team and nine more in a dozen postseason contests. By all accounts, the quicksilver sniper’s NHL ready.

There will be some attrition among the forwards, mostly among the supporting cast. Nick Bonino, Matt Cullen and Chris Kunitz are eligible for free agency. Cullen, remarkably effective for a 40-year-old, may opt to retire. The gritty, shot-blocking Bonino may prove too pricey to retain. Given the locals’ comparative lack of depth on the left side, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Kunitz sign for another year at a bargain rate.

Look for Tom Kuhnhackl and Carter Rowney to plug the gaps—and possibly rugged Zach Aston-Reese. Provided they re-sign with the Pens, restricted free agents Josh Archibald and Oskar Sundqvist could be in the mix as well.

Defense

Here’s where our situation gets dicey…and could potentially unravel. Ian Cole, Kris Letang and Olli Maatta are the only present Pens defensemen under contract for next season. We’re not even sure if “Tanger”—recovering from delicate neck surgery—will be fit to play.

Veterans Trevor Daley, Ron Hainsey and Mark Streit are unrestricted free agents, along with depth defenders Cameron Gaunce, Chad Ruhwedel and David Warsofsky.

In addition, Brian Dumoulin, Justin Schultz and late-season pickup Frank Corrado are restricted free agents and eligible for arbitration. Given their stellar overall performance, Dumoulin and Schultz no doubt are in line for a significant boost in pay.

Perennial prospect Derrick Pouliot, an all-but-forgotten man, also is a restricted free agent, albeit non-arbitration eligible. Aside from not-ready-for-prime-time players such as Lukas Bengtsson and Ethan Prow, the rest of the organizational pickins’ are slim.

Needless to say, GM Jim Rutherford’s got his work cut out.

Goaltending

The future rests with Matt Murray. The kid was lights out during the recent postseason, leading all qualifying playoff goalies with a .937 save percentage, three shutouts and a microscopic 1.70 goals against average. He’s obviously coach Mike Sullivan’s guy.

With the handwriting clearly on the wall, former franchise goalie Marc-Andre Fleury waived elements of his non-movement clause, which all but assures that he’ll be left unprotected in the upcoming expansion draft. Whether or not he’s claimed by Las Vegas remains to be seen, but it’s a safe bet “Flower” will be tending another team’s net this fall.

Rutherford may seek to sign a veteran backup or promote talented but green prospect Tristan Jarry. One thing that might work in Jarry’s favor? I’d expect the Pens’ goalies to share the workload on roughly a 50/30-game split, which means Jarry wouldn’t be tethered to the bench for prolonged periods of time.

Competition

When evaluating our Cup chances, it’s easy to get tunnel vision. However, there are rival clubs to contend with. Some very good, and on the rise.

While the veteran-laden Capitals figure to fade from prominence, the bristling Blue Jackets have the look of a team that could go places. Powered by super rookie Auston Matthews and a passel of talented kids, Mike Babcock’s Maple Leafs gave the Caps a first-round scare and should continue to improve.

Out west, the sky’s literally the limit for Edmonton and wunderkind scoring champ Connor McDavid. Don’t dismiss Nashville, either, especially if stud center Ryan Johansen’s 100 percent healthy upon his return.

Call it the NHL version of keeping up with the Jones’s. The Pens will need to stay a step or two ahead.

Attrition

Depending upon how well Rutherford retools the defense, the Pens certainly possess the talent to three-peat. However, there’s one factor that’s all too easy to overlook—attrition.

Beginning with the 2015-16 exhibition slate, the Pens played more games (227 to be exact) that any team in NHL history over a similar span. That’s not even counting last summer’s World Cup.

Although warriors they undoubtedly are, can the Pens withstand the brutal physical, mental and emotional grind of another punishing Cup run?

Based on how beat-up they looked this spring, I’d say the answer is no.

However, there’s one thing this super resilient bunch of champions has taught me. Never, ever count them out.