2021-22 Preview: Are the Penguins Playoff Bound?

For the first time in recent memory, the Penguins enter a regular season with more questions than answers. How will the new forward lines work, especially with Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin on the shelf to start the season? Or more to the point, will they work?

Ditto the defense. Can fringe blueliners Chad Ruhwedel and Mark Friedman effectively man the third right defense slot? And what about John Marino and Marcus Pettersson, who both took a step backward last season? Can they bounce back?

Same goes for the goaltending and, more specifically, Tristan Jarry. Is he good enough to carry the load?

Forwards

The Pens bled off two good forwards over the summer, Jared McCann and sparkplug Brandon Tanev, not to mention solid depth piece Frederick Gaudreau. It remains to be seen whether newcomers Danton Heinen, Brock McGinn and former Pen Dominik Simon will be suitable replacements.

Heinen has scored as many as 16 goals in a season and displayed a high skill level in preseason, but must bring consistency. McGinn employs an aggressive style similar to Tanev. He, too, has topped out at 16 goals. Although McGinn used the body during exhibition play, he wasn’t super noticeable in other aspects of the game. Simon, a favorite of coach Mike Sullivan, had a decent preseason and will probably make the cut. All must be effective for the Pens to succeed.

Newcomers aside, the Pens still possess a cadre of talented forwards to match any team in the league. When everyone is healthy, our depth at center is enviable with sniper Jeff Carter and Teddy Blueger filling bottom-six roles. The trick will be negotiating the first couple of months until Malkin returns. Big Brian Boyle should help, at least on the defensive side of the ledger.

On the wings, Jake Guentzel is a proven scorer with a nose for the net. Only wish he was 6’3” instead of 5’11”. Coming off back-to-back 20-plus goal seasons, hustling Bryan Rust squeezes every ounce from his God-given abilities. Sullivan and the coaching staff believe speedy Kasperi Kapanen has star potential and I agree. He does everything well, and with a touch of elan to boot. Perhaps more at home with a team that embraces a structured system, Jason Zucker endured a disappointing season and didn’t seem to mesh with anyone except perhaps Carter. Yet he still scored at close to a 20-goal clip. Following a good camp, there’s hope he’ll rebound.

Behind the big four? A capable group of worker bees that includes the likes of Heinen, McGinn, Simon, defensive wiz Zach Aston-Reese, Sam Lafferty and versatile Evan Rodrigues. Still technically a rookie, Drew O’Connor enjoyed a strong preseason and could make the squad at either center or wing.

Radim Zohorna opens the season with the Baby Pens but could be an early recall should things go awry. Anthony Angello, who was also sent down on Monday, is a likely candidate to rejoin the big club at some point as well.

When everyone is healthy, scoring goals shouldn’t be a problem. Preventing them, however, could be another matter entirely.

Defense

With prospects Pierre-Olivier Joseph and Cam Lee and veterans Taylor Fedun and Juuso Riikola on hand at Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, organizational depth on the blue line isn’t an issue. However, fleshing out the top six could prove problematic.

The top tandem is set with Kris Letang and Brian Dumoulin. At age 33, Letang enjoyed one of his best all-around seasons while displaying improved decision-making. Thanks to his partner’s new-found discipline, Dumoulin…normally confined to a stay-at-home role…was able to contribute more offensively. As familiar with each other as peanut butter and jelly, they should once again be a strong pairing.

It’s the rest of the bunch that’s a worry. With his supreme skating and puckhandling, pricey Mike Matheson was a boon to the transition game while proving he could handle second-pairing duty. How much of that was due to the presence of his partner, Cody Ceci, remains to be seen. With Ceci moving on to greener ($$$) pastures, Marino figures to fill that slot this season. He and Matheson struggled as a tandem last season. The Massachusetts native must prove his sparkling rookie season in ’19-20 was no fluke.

The third pairing’s a question mark as well. Coming off a down year, Pettersson looked slow and ineffective during the preseason. Virtually untradeable due to his contract, he appears to be an Achilles heel in more ways than one. In fact, GM Ron Hextall’s failure to move Marcus over the summer, even if other assets were involved, could prove to be a blunder of colossal proportions.

His expected partner, Ruhwedel, plays a solid all-around game. Will he be able to cover for Pettersson should the lanky Swede continue to struggle?

Goal

Much was made of Jarry’s disastrous playoff performance last spring. Indeed, the Islanders picked him cleaner than a shoal of piranhas while exposing a previously undetected weakness to the glove side. Yet Jarry generally played well last season behind a team that isn’t exactly known for its defensive structure. And he does possess pedigree, as his 25 wins last season (fourth-most in the league) and All-Star game appearance in ‘19-20 will attest.

So much of goaltending is confidence and focus. Whether or not new goaltending coach Andy Chiodo can help Tristan put his playoff collapse in the rear-view mirror remains to be seen.

Backup Casey DeSmith is solid if unspectacular. A battler noted for his mental toughness, he rises to the occasion when the chips are down and almost always gives the team a chance to win.

Should either falter, veteran Louis Domingue is a phone call away at Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, and behind him, prospect Filip Lindberg.

Intangibles

Prodded by Sullivan, who has a knack for squeezing the most out of a team…at least during the regular season…the Pens compete hard and with speed. With a veteran core of Crosby, Malkin and Letang, not to mention Carter and Boyle, there’s no shortage of leadership.

However, physicality is always a concern, especially if Sullivan continues to favor smaller, quicker players like Rodrigues and Simon over larger, more aggressive types like Angello, Boyle and Lafferty as he is wont to do. With the league trending toward a heavier game and several key division rivals muscling up, this could be an especially critical factor during the coming season.

Injuries, as always, could play a crucial role, especially with the team’s core moving up the geriatric scale.

Competition

To my eye, the Islanders are the class of the Metro. Tough and supremely talented, the Rangers are poised to take a huge step forward. Behind them, I look for a dogfight for the next two slots involving Carolina, Washington, Philadelphia and our Pens.

I think the Hurricanes are a cut above and the Flyers a notch below. Which leaves us and the Caps to slug it out for fourth place and, in all likelihood, the final wild card spot. If we extend our glorious run of 15-consecutive postseason berths, it’ll be by the narrowest of margins.

Conclusion

The Pens are clearly on the downside of the championship bell curve…and perhaps a small step away from the start of a dreaded rebuild. Enjoy this last stab at the playoffs while (and if) it lasts. The future isn’t likely to be especially rosy.