Are the Penguins a Playoff Team?

I was thinking about our favorite hockey team as I am wont to do, and the question popped into my head. Are the Penguins a playoff team?

How I wish I could answer in the affirmative. But there are so many “ifs.”

Even general manager Jim Rutherford admits as much.

“It’s always exciting when you make changes,” JR said. “It’s exciting, but you’re a little nervous too because you don’t know exactly how it’s going to play out. We have some new guys that are coming in that have had good years and they’re good players, some coming off a little bit of off years for them. So, it will be interesting to see how their game plays out. Of course, we have our fingers crossed that they’ll all get back to the level that they were at their best.”

In other words, there are still plenty of unknowns surrounding this team.

Heck, even among the comparative sure bets there are questions. Can Bryan Rust duplicate his break-out success of last season? Will Kasperi Kapanen mesh with Sidney Crosby and achieve his potential? Will Jason Zucker find chemistry with Evgeni Malkin? Will the aging core remain productive…and healthy? 

Again, minor concerns, but legitimate nonetheless.

However, there are weightier issues that are causing me some sleepless nights.

The Competition

The Pens did not draw the easy straw…not by a long shot. Indeed, the East promises to be by far the toughest of the four new divisions. A virtual murder’s row featuring five of the top 11 clubs in points percentage last season, Boston, Washington, Philadelphia, our Pens and the Islanders. For good measure, the talented young Rangers could be ready to make a move, and even have-nots like Buffalo and New Jersey won’t be pushovers.

For the record, the Pens were 32-15-3 against the rest of the league in 2019-20 and a lackluster 8-8-3 against their new division brethren.

I’d say there’s ample cause for concern.

The only thing that might mitigate in our favor? The Islanders have lost some key players, and the Rangers might not be quite ready for prime time. But if either of those teams surprise, our boys could be in trouble.

The Third Line/Bottom Six

JR made fixing the nettlesome third line a priority over the off-season. To that end he signed former Calgary center Mark Jankowski and Evan Rodrigues, who we acquired, traded away, and then resigned on the first day of free agency. The intent is to place them on a unit with incumbent Jared McCann.

Jankowski put up decent numbers for the Flames before the wheels fell off his wagon last season. Rodrigues has hinted at being a productive NHL skater (25 points in 48 games in 2017-18, 29 points in 74 games the following season) but he’s never quite gotten there.

Two of those fingers-crossed gambles Rutherford was referring to.

Of course, it would be great if they bounce back and team with McCann on an effective third line. But if they don’t? Then it leaves the bottom-six in an all-too-familiar Mulligan stew jumble.

If the newcomers falter…and there’s every chance they might…perhaps Teddy Blueger and Brandon Tanev join McCann on the third line as Mark Madden suggests. That combo has a nice feel to it. Lots of speed and tenacity.

Then perhaps Jankowski and Rodrigues drop to the fourth line with Sam Lafferty.

For now the orange construction cones remain firmly in place. But the bottom six will be a key factor in determining the black-and-gold’s success…or failure.

The Third Defense Pairing

I confess, I keep waffling back-and-forth on this one. Well, make it a half-waffle.

I’ve been dubious from the get-go about Cody Ceci. His playing style and metrics are eerily comparable to the departed Jack Johnson, right down to his heavy feet.

I’ve been more upbeat about JR’s marquee acquisition on defense, Mike Matheson. The raw tools are there…skating, shot, puck-lugging ability…for this kid to be a strong contributor.

But on the flip side…a staggering number of giveaways. I was hopeful that new Pens’ defensive coach Todd Reirden might be able to fix Matheson and turn him into a solid performer and perhaps he can. However, as other blogs so aptly noted, this is where the abbreviated 10-day training camp really hurts. It provides precious little time for Reirden to work out the kinks in Matheson’s game.

Envision this nightmare scenario if you will. Metrics show that opponents get a ton of shots from the high-danger areas when Ceci’s on the ice. If Matheson turns the puck over in those areas and Ceci is typically slow to react…

…too painful to ponder.

Goaltending

I love Tristan Jarry. I love his athleticism, the way he moves in the net. I love his quickness, his glove hand, his ability to handle the puck. In short, I think he has the makings of a terrific goaltender.

I don’t mind Casey DeSmith as a backup. During his two-season stint in the ‘Burgh he was fairly solid. He even started 30 games for us (and appeared in 36) in 2018-19 and held up pretty well…a 2.75 goals against average and respectable .916 save percentage.

Still, I worry about what happens if Jarry is injured and DeSmith has to carry the load for any length of time. Actually, my real concern is No. 3 goalie Maxime Lagace, who would slide into a backup role if Jarry were out.

We might have been better off signing Maxime Talbot for our third goalie. Lagace, to be kind, has been horrible at the NHL level and hasn’t exactly shone in the AHL either. He’s a definite Achilles heel.

I’d have felt more comfortable had JR signed a veteran like Craig Anderson to fill the No. 3 slot. Alas, as always seems to be the case, the Capitals beat us to the punch.

Back to my original question. Are the Penguins a playoff team? To be totally honest, my head says no…that there are just too many question marks…too many potential soft spots. But my heart wants to believe, so I’ll answer in the affirmative. But an awful lot of things will have to go right in order for us to get in.

Puck luck plus.

Puckpourri

The Penguins signed defenseman John Marino to a six-year, $26.4 million contract extension on Sunday. The deal begins in 2021-22 and carries an average annual value of $4.4 million.

Acquired from Edmonton for a sixth-round pick, the Massachusetts native enjoyed an outstanding rookie season in 2019-20, tallying six goals and 26 points in 56 games to go with a plus-17…tied for best on the team with Brian Dumoulin.

Known for his skating, poise, puckhandling and superb gap control, the coveted right-shot blueliner teamed with fellow youngster Marcus Pettersson to form a solid second pairing.

In other noteworthy news, it appears Kapanen will miss training camp and perhaps the start of the regular season due to immigration issues and a mandatory seven-day COVID quarantine.

Hardly the puck luck plus I was hoping for.