I apologize ahead of time for the loose-leaf ramble you’re about to read. It isn’t so much an in-depth analysis of our recent First Round defeat at the hands of the Rangers as a brain dump. Me trying to wrap my mind around things.
Bear with me.
First…some reasons why we could’ve won.
Even-Steven
Our Pens skated with the speedy Rangers and dictated play 5v5. For the most part, we played solid team defense, too. In particular, we did an excellent job of insulating our goalies and keeping high-danger chances against to a minimum. No easy feat against a talented team like New York.
Net Results
With eight goals and a team-high 10 points, Jake Guentzel enjoyed a phenomenal series. Sidney Crosby, who tallied 10 points as well, was equally superb, not to mention inspirational. Had Sid not been knocked out of action for a game and change, I think he would’ve willed us to victory.
Ice cold prior to the series, our bottom nine caught fire and erupted for 14 goals, including four by Jeff Carter and three apiece from Evgeni Malkin, Danton Heinen and Evan Rodrigues. Our blue line chipped in as well, with markers from Kris Letang, Mike Matheson and Mark Friedman.
We were especially dangerous in Games 3 and 4, when we attacked down the middle and swarmed the Rangers’ net to the tune of 14 goals. Chasing Hart Trophy candidate Igor Shesterkin twice in the process.
Heart ‘n’ Soul
The Pens displayed tons of grit and resilience throughout the series in the face of mounting adversity. Frankly, more than enough to win. And we showed a boatload of collective character by shrugging off what was at times withering physical assault by New York.
Like John Cameron Swayze’s Timex watch, we took a lickin’ and kept on tickin.’
Some reasons why we didn’t win.
Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics
Mike Sullivan’s up-tempo style produces dazzling metrics, not to mention some of the most entertaining hockey around. We dominated the Rangers in virtually every meaningful category, including Corsi (52.57), shots on goal (310-270), scoring chances (274-222) and high-danger chances (a mind-blowing 143-77). Everywhere it seems but where it matters most…in wins and losses.
This is nothing new. In 2019 and again in 2021 we led the postseason in Corsi…and won a total of two out of 10 games.
One Step Up and Two Steps Back
Our inability to hold a lead was a key factor. We blew a three-goal lead in Game 3 and two-goal leads in Games 5 and 6 when the Rangers were sagging on the ropes and begging for a standing eight-count. And when we blow ‘em, we don’t mess around. Our Game 5 lead evaporated in 90 seconds. In Game 6…76 seconds.
Porous goaltending certainly didn’t help. Although he did his best, cult-hero Louis Domingue appeared to have trouble tracking pucks and was especially vulnerable on long-range shots. Virtually any time the Rangers mounted sustained pressure in our zone they scored.
Special Teams Were Far from Special
The Rangers’ power play eviscerated our remarkably passive penalty kill to the tune of six goals in 19 tries, for a ridiculous conversation rate of 31.6 percent. Although our power play also managed six goals, three came from our second unit, while the top group mostly stood around looking for the elusive perfect setup. To say nothing of misfiring on 5-on-3’s and yielding two-shorthanded goals.
If it Weren’t for Bad Luck, We’d Have No Luck at All…
We opened the playoffs with starting goalie Tristan Jarry on the shelf. Then Casey DeSmith went down during the second overtime of Game 1 with a core muscle injury that required surgery. Although he had his moments, especially in Games 1 and 4, third-string goalie Domingue for the most part played like the journeyman he is.
Counted on to be a difference-maker, high profile trade-deadline acquisition Rickard Rakell was knocked out…literally…in Game 1 by a high, hard hit from Rangers d-man Ryan Lindgren. He didn’t return until Game 7.
Defensive stalwart Brian Dumoulin was injured in Game 1…and didn’t return. And of course, the most egregious misfortune of all, captain and spiritual core Crosby being driven from Game 5 by a blatant Jacob Trouba elbow to the head, just when we’d pretty much choked the life out of the Rangers and had the series wrapped up.
Oh, and three pucks going in off Matheson, who otherwise had a dynamic series.
Suffice to say, the hockey gods weren’t kind.
No More Mr. Nice Guy
I’ll conclude with a final observation. On May 1, 2018, our two-time defending Cup champions were locked in a tight Game 3 battle with Washington. The series was tied, 1-1, and the score was tied at 2-2. At 13:15 of the second period, Capitals marauder Tom Wilson leveled Zach Aston-Reese with a seismic shoulder-first hit to the head, rendering ZAR bloodied and prone on the ice with a broken jaw.
Dirty and reprehensible as the check was, it proved to be the turning point of the series. The Caps won the pivotal Game 3 and two of the next three to take the series. They went on to win the Cup.
Fast-forward to the Trouba elbow on Crosby, which removed Sid from the proceedings at virtually the same juncture of the game. Again, a physical play against one of our players…never mind if it was legal…served as a turning point.
I’ve been harping on it for years, but our Pens need some guys who play a hard game. Brian Boyle provided a bit of that element this season, but we need more. At least one forward and one defenseman who embrace a physical, no-nonsense style. I’m not suggesting a no-talent knuckle dragger, although I’d take one of those as a short-term fix.
Rather a player like the Rangers’ Alexis Lafreniere. Yes, I know he’s a former No. 1 overall pick, and we aren’t likely to get one of those any time soon. But he’s a perfect example of the type of player we need. One who combines skill with size and a bit of an edge.
In addition to scoring two big goals, Lafreniere delivered 20 hits during the series, including several bone-jarring checks on our defensemen. His deliberate de-helmeting of Marcus Pettersson at a critical juncture of the winner-take-all Game 7 led directly to the game-tying goal.
I don’t know about you. But I’m tired of our Pens being the victim.
In the NHL, nice guys finish last, especially in the postseason.
Time for us to stop being so nice.
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Hey all,
Just want to point out a great article over on Pittsburgh Hockey Now titled, "Molinari: Penguins Must Face Reality After Long, Fabulous Run."
Dave's done some excellent pieces since joining the PHN staff. Well worth the read.
Rick
Rick
Letting Malkin and Letang walk will take courage on the part of Hextall. IMO this needs to happen in order
for the Pen's to have any chance of pursuing another Cup in the next 3 to 5 years. By keeping Letang or
Malkin it would significantly set us back. If either or both are willing to agree on a two year deal for 5 million
per and the 2nd year being a team option I may consider it. We really have to many needs and to address
those we need to clear cap space. I look forward to your feedback.
GO PENS
It was a great read Rick. It seems many are finally realizing it is over as Dave said.
Now we move on.
Cheers
Hey Rick,
You certainly covered several points that we’ve discussed previously and it seems to me that you think this current team should stay together, and With just two or three players we could become a contending team again.
I fail to see the logic in that reasoning.
The Pens have failed for the last four years to get the job done. If I was one of the new owners from Fenway, I would be furious that I just spent $900 million on a team that is in decline. Now they want to bring back Marc Andre Fleury in Hope to restore former glory days. This is ridiculous.
It’s over.
It is time to move on and rebuild. I’m not talking about tweaking three or four players, no I’m talking about a complete rebuild.. The real question is we have NO future talent… We need to get high end draft picks into our system and watch them grow. The New York rangers have several young upcoming superstars and they will only get better where the penguins are only going to get worse.! There are many teams in the NHL in the same situation as the Rangers. Their talent pool and their draft picks we simply cannot match.. That has to change!
This team needs a new vision, a new coach and more importantly the new players that will execute the new system for the next 5 to 10 years. To put all our faith in the current roster long term is futile. Crosby is still under contract for three more years. He obviously has great value to the team. Jake as well. Everyone else is expendable.
This is the same situation that happened to the New York islanders when they lost to the upstart Edmonton Oilers all those years ago. Fans, management and coaches all refused to believe it was over.. Had they traded some of their Super stars for younger players maybe the dynasty would’ve continued.
We are in that same situation in Pittsburgh..Nobody wants to let go of the past.
I’ve raised this a few times in the past years… There was a solid rumor out of Edmonton that when Edmonton was about to draft Connor McDavid that they would trade their draft pick for Malkin.
Of course everyone thought that was a terrible idea… Yet watching six years later if we had had Connor McDavid on our team instead of Geno ….We would still be playing today and I was going to say we probably would’ve won a few more Stanley cups with him on our roster.
This is the thinking that will be required for the Penguins to become successful again.
It is all about risk. The teams that are brave enough to do the rebuilds necessary usually have success. I see this as a five year minimum before will ever become a cup contender again. To do that we have to do a major rebuild..Also We need to get lucky and sign a few UFA’s that may want a change of scenery but are still elite talent.’s.
Let’s not delude ourselves into thinking otherwise.
It does no good for us to live in the past. How are we going to fix the problem that we have now.?
Only one way… And it’s going to be painful… And it’s not gonna be quick. But the sooner we start the sooner we can all celebrate the next Stanley Cup win for our beloved penguins.!!!
Just being Brutally honest Rick.
Sorry for my rant.
Cheers
Jim
Jim
I'm in agreement with you - its time for a rebuild. I'm so tired of listening to Pen's fans praise Letang. Put me on the #1 PP unit with Crosby, Guentzel, Malkin etc....etc.... and I would end up with 50 or 60 points. Letang once again led the team in giveaways with (79). As for Malkin he refuses to make any type
of adjustment to his game to compensate for his age. They both have to go - Letang may of helped
his value and we can get a decent return during this years draft. I think someone would snatch up
Malkin for the right price. I'm hoping Hextall has a plan because this is where his backbone as a GM
will be on display front and center. It should be a very interesting off-season.
One more point I would like to make - I think it's imperative that Sullivan is open to adjusting his
system and working with Hextall to bring in a different brand of player with adding both size and
toughness. If not then a coaching change should be a priority. This team will not fair well in the
playoffs until changes are made. I look forward to your feedback
GO PENS
Sorry for jumping in here Mike and Jim,
I pretty much agree. Had the team gone through a retool about 3 - 4 years ago, they could have bought a year or 2 more grace, but their refusal to see that the team for what they were, pretenders not contenders hastened this demise.
I like a lot of what GMRH has done so far, he has signed some interesting over aged Jrs and College players but he should have been a seller not a buyer at the trade deadline. This team over achieved just to get to the playoffs., it was never going the distance. Watching Colorado, Edmonton, and Calgary play, they never would have stood a chance and only would have embarrassed themselves had they got to the big dance. Letang and Rust should have definitely been traded at the trade deadline since they do not have full blown NMCs in their contracts and a substantial reward (draft picks) gathered. There are several kids in this years and next years draft that could seriously help this team. And even as much as I like Malkin, if I could have talked him into letting me trade him to Florida for Anton Lundl, I would have tried to pull that deal off.
Some team, with visions of glory will over pay Malkin and Letang, but reality is both really only warrant 3 years because of their age and only $5 - $6 million. As for Rust He is younger, so a long term contract isn't as big of a problem, but money is. Like his more senior team mates, someone will offer him a ton and I won't blame him for taking the offer, but the reality is he still is a streaky player and had his number buoyed up by Guentzel. I may offer him a longer term contract but for only about what I would offer Malkin and Letang.
As for Sullivan, you already know I lost all respect for him after the Capital series 5 years ago when he contradicted his GM. Therefore, you will never get an argument from me over a Coaching change. And I am in full agreement, with a new team there needs to be a new voice on the bench, a completely new voice, one that understands you don't have to be little to be fast, there are big players that are fast too and doesn't have an allergy to tough, gritty, in the paint (in both zones) players. I am sick to tears of perimeter offense and stick waving defense.
Well said Coach.
Jim
Hey Mike,
I really enjoyed your comments above. Very well spoken Mike. I envy you guys in that you can talk "Penguins" to each other in real time and in the case of Rick, OTR, Phil and a few others, can get to actually see a live game.That is one luxury I can not do here in Atlantic Canada..
We need to understand that Letang is not going to sign a team friendly deal. He wants long term and big money.
I look at the Sharks who signed Erik Karelson to a long term, big money contract and now they are trying to offload it because he no longer warrants such a high salary. In other words he is older and can not carry the team any longer.But their are few takers Mike. I am afraid the same will happen to the Pens. Plus Letang has serious concussion issues and that risk has to be taken into account when considering any long term deal.Most fans fail to see the risk. As we age the risk for concussions increases in physical sports.That is why old Boxers are forced to retire.
With Geno he said it all. "Good players sign good contracts." He is not taking a 5 -6 million dollar contract. His friend in Washington wants him to play there as well. He has options.
Finally you raise another great point regarding Sullivan. I don't see him being able to adapt to another system. He is to much all about Mike. My first priority is to get me a new Coach and all the underlings that go with him and look seriously at the most successful Franchises now and try to learn from them. Sullivan should have been let go 2 years ago in my opinion and just maybe the rebuild would have started sooner.
Nice talking with you Mike...Hope we can continue...
Cheers
JIM
Then with Rust he actually warrants a big raise given his last few years of work. I don't think we can afford to resign all 3 of them.