Dubas finally gets his man, 3 time Norris Trophy winner Erik Karlsson turning the Penguins into a legitimate contender and an offensive juggernaut. Or it should be.
I’m not going to go into too much detail over who goes where, as it’s all over the internet and fellow Penguin Poop compadre Rick Buker has already covered it.
But this has to be one of the greatest fleecings by GM Maestro Kyle Dubas. This looks like the trade a thirteen year old boy would come up with in the NHL game with trades set to easy, that absolutely no one in the real world would take seriously.
This trade is the epitome of “Here are all my worst guys for your best guy”.
Kyle Dubas managed to dump two of the Penguin’s worst deadweight cap hit contracts in Jeff Petry and Mikael Granlund (Deadweight cap and deadweight player for us..)
That in and of itself is a miracle but he somehow managed to get $1.5 million of salary off Karlsson, AND another young forward in Rem Pitlick AND a prospect AND a third round pick for 2026? Crazy. (How many “AND’S” can one add!)
Rem Pitlick could be a nice little steal to boot.
And there’s more, MORE YOU SAY? Yes, after all that, the Penguins get $3 Million in cap, as well the average age of the roster came down. So the Penguins actually got younger.
What did Dubas have to give up? Yager? Pickering? Poulin? POJ, Two first round picks? Nope.
He had to give a conditional top ten protected first rounder, a second to Montreal, and dumped all his worst players. In return, he got a Norris Trophy winner for almost nothing. Wow.
Erik Karlsson is coming off a Paul Coffey like season slapping up 25(G) 76(A) for 101 Points on a dumpster fire of a roster, as a sort of a oh. I’m washed up huh?
What makes Karlsson so deadly on the Penguins roster besides his overall offensive ability, is his transition off the rush, which is exactly what Sullivan wants and exactly how Karlsson wants to play. A literal match made in hockey heaven if there ever was one.
With Karlsson quarterbacking the Powerplay, which they badly need and have been missing since Phil Kessel, or being creative on the blue line, or his offensive scoring prowess. Having a player of this magnitude playing with Crosby, Malkin, and Letang means it’s going to be a nightmare for teams to contain.
The league is all about moving the puck from the defensive zone to the offensive zone, which is exactly what Karlsson is extremely good at. You may know another player elite at this, which is none other than the Penguin’s own Kris Letang. That means the Penguins have two players who can do something in the league that is highly sought after and they have two guys who do it at an elite level.
This is a teams worst nightmare to play against, at almost every point in a game you will have an elite puck moving defenseman on the Ice.
Now defensively yes he’s not going to be the best, he’s also not going to be the worst despite what people might say. With the proper linemate, like a defensive defenseman such as Marcus Pettersson, he should actually be a net positive.
Now everything isn’t all sunshine and roses. The Penguins probably need at least one more scoring forward, which if I had to guess Dubas will try and snag next as one of his last big moves.
Maybe a little something from his former team? Who happens to be in cap hell, at 12 million large over the cap.
The Penguins are also still quite injury prone, per Jake Guentzel is out for most likely the first month of the season. Yikes.
There is also no chance the hockey gods bless us with both Crosby and Malkin playing 82 games again. So just because we have Karlsson (Who’s also injury prone.) doesn’t mean it’s free sailing to the playoffs.
We will have to see what other moves are made, or how this season goes, but I’m definitely a lot more confident to say the least. Injury prone and all.
Worst case scenario some younger guys get some ice time. Ironically that’s when the Penguins play the best.
It seems most of Penguin fandom is quite happy with the trade, but I do see some detractors bringing up that he’s 33 years old, he’s bad defensively, and we gave away a first rounder when we need to build for the future!
Frankly, forget the future. What are you talking about? Seriously I want to know? You would insult everything that Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang did for you because YOU decided they’re done?
Forget that, Crosby still wants to win, this CORE wants to win. These guys are all still producing at a elite level, so why the hell would they be done? Give them their dues and maybe they even get it done one more time.
Some of the fans need to smell the roses, they AIN’T rebuilding with Crosby on the roster, FSG has made that clear. So when you see the Penguins adding players for “win now” purposes, don’t get mad talking about them needing to rebuild. Just enjoy the fun for the next two years.
Because now with Karlsson no matter what it will be fun to watch.
It seems to me with Dubas grabbing that 2026 third rounder, he will just keep stacking picks for 2026 or 2027 going forward. For one, GM’s are more likely to give up picks that far off, and 2026 just so happens to coincide with Sidney Crosby’s contract being over.
This will also most likely keep the Pens transition period, aka being the “dumpster fire bottom feeding team” years. To a minimum.
Because if you stack a bunch of picks, even if they’re 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th rounders, your likelihood of hitting on one or even two is high. Jason Robertson a 2nd round example and Krill Kaprizov is a 5th round example!
2026, that’s the end, that is it, they are not rebuilding until then. That’s two more years for the core to try and win. They just might now, who knows.
I’ve never seen so much hate and doubt from Penguins fans over these past few years. This team has Sidney Crosby, and you never count out a guy like that. Never.
They missed the playoffs by one point. Come on now.
This trade has excited me, and the Penguin fanbase. The Penguins are a contender and they will most likely make it to the playoffs. A Stanley Cup? Maybe and maybe not, but now it’s not hopeless.
Enjoy the ride before the inevitable rebuild, show some respect to this core for what they gave you, and let them be given the chance to try and win.
And for the love of god sell out the buildings while Sid, Geno and Tanger are sill here.
I’ll see you all on the next article. Enjoy the good news!
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Hey Caleb,
Interesting thing about the last Stanley Cup the average Hgt and Wgt of the winning team, during the playoff run, the Vegas Golden Knights, was taller and heavier
Vegas Hgt: 73.87, Wgt: 205.78
Florida Hgt: 73.32, Wgt: 196.05
The Hgt difference was marginal but the Wgt difference was startling and both cases against your argument that the winning team wasn’t as big as the losing team. Furthermore, both teams were taller and heavier than our Penguins.
The difference gets even bigger when talking about D-Men.
The Cup Winning Knights D-Men Hgt: 75.41, Wgt: 213.53
The Runner Up Panthers D-Men Hgt: 73.35, Wgt: 199.14
Ask Arnold, size does matter, and not just to a certain point, 205.78lbs leaning on 196.05 for 60 or more minutes is going to win the vast majority of the time. That which makes the David and Goliath story so great is that is happens only once every 3,000 odd years (David Goliath Battle circa 1025BC). If that weren’t true, the feel-good story would be when the Big man beat the small man.
As a point of reference, since we are talking about our Penguins here, the average Hgt of a Penguins at any given point in time last season was 73.04, shorter than both Cup contender’s average skater and 194.18 lighter than both Cup contender’s average skater. When limiting to the discussion to defensemen, the average Hgt at any given point a Penguin Defender last season was 74.03, taller than the runner up but smaller than the Cup Champion. The average Wgt of a Penguin Defender at any given point was 195.84, lighter than either Cup contender. Interesting enough, the Penguins defenders thanks to the lithe forms of Petterson, POJ, and Ty Smith may be tall, but they are lighter. They are stalks of wheat blowing in the wind when opponents come down on them.
Sorry my friend, all of your contentions about size are abjectly wrong.
Sorry, this was supposed to go below your attempted rebuttal about size
Impressively written article here, Caleb!
Hello Bold Ruler!
Thank you, it's much appreciated!
Sorry Caleb,
But if anyone is failing to smell the roses, it is because there are no roses to smell. The team and delusional types can chant the one more shot mantra all they want but that ship sailed 6 seasons ago when the team abandoned the idea of developing in-house talent and opted instead to chase other team's castoffs. Furthermore, as Jason C pointed out below, the team hasn't been hampered by players. They have had a parade of decent players.
Just take a look at one of Rick Bs articles on former Penguins and see how many players Sullivan ran off are doing well.
It's not about the fans believing theirs one more shot or not (but as I said you never count out a Sidney Crosby) it's about giving the guys who gave you three cups and took discount contracts, and who want to win the respect to at least try.
Hey Caleb,
I certainly hope for once you are right, I would rather eat crow and watch a Cup parade, but the odds are way stacked against you. You don't win Stanley Cups with a roster full of aging, fading stars, you win it with a mix of players, where the aged and faded stars mentor the next generation. What the team is doing now is the same as the person addicted to gambling, taking the mortgage money and throwing it down on one more throw of the dice to recoup the 6 other losses he had previously, instead of cashing out his chips after the last win and only continuing play on house money. Had the team played it smart and retooled in 17-18 or at least 18-19 instead of doing exactly what they did here, then this conversation wouldn't be happening. The team wouldn't need Karlsson and probably would have already won that one more Cup. All it is doing now is perpetuating failed strategies in vain hopes that they find that one outlier that breaks the bank.
Hey Caleb.
WOW!!! Outstanding article! Extremely informative and entertaining and you pretty much cover all the pluses (and potential minuses) as well.
It, indeed, looks like on of those "I'll give you all my bad players for your best player deal." Kind of like the Jaromir Jagr trade in 2001, only in reverse.
The skill and nerve it took on Dubas' part to pull this off boggles my mind. Especially in the salary cap era when there are so many things to consider. You just don't see trades like this.
The most glaring needs I see at this point are scoring depth among the forwards and a lack of physicality, which will come into play on the postseason.
Oh...regarding Pitlick... I'll have to take your word for it. His WAR chart is none too impressive...lol.
Rick
We have good to great players sprinkled throughout the lineup. It's the coach and coaching style that has wasted the last 3 seasons. He will not play anyone who has size who might ever mix it up with the other team. His just play mentality leads to more injuries to our stars because teams know we are pillowy soft to play against. This trade may help marginally in the reg season but come playoffs( if we make it) we are still out in the first round
Hello Jason and welcome to PenguinPoop.
You won't get any argument from me on the size/toughness issue. I've been banging that drum for a long time. In fairness to Ron Hextall, he tried his best to inject some functional size and physicality by adding the likes of Jeff Petry and Jan Rutta, mindful I'm sure of Sullivan's track record with genuinely tough players like Ryan Reaves, Jamie Oleksiak and Erik Gudbranson. In other words, he had to get guys who were tough but not too tough if that makes any sense.
Dovetailing with his aversion to physical players, Sullivan only knows how to coach one style...a speed game. Even if the players at his disposal aren't cut out to play that way, he tries to force them to fit his system. We saw how well that worked last season...not.
It was abundantly clear which type of teams went deep into the playoffs this past season. Fast, yes, but with a heaping helping of grit and toughness.
I think we're a better team thanks to Dubas' moves. But as it stands now, I don't think we're built for playoff success. Hopefully Dubas, who I have a lot of faith in, will add some gristle somewhere along the line.
Rick
Hey Jason, Rick and Other Rick.
I'm still going to disagree that teams need size+toughness to win. I actually think that concept hasn't been true since the 80s-90s.
Yes size matters to a certain point, but look at this last Stanley Cup, the bigger and tougher team lost to the smaller and less tough team. This league is about efficiently moving the puck from zone to zone and controlling it.
Not a bunch of goons out there playing rock'em sock'em. Not that size and toughness matters at all, just not to the extent that people may think.
Look at Colorado when they won the cup. Where are the tough guys? Their top dmen is a younger Karlsson haha. As for size Cale Makar is 5'11 & 187lbs, Alex Newhook is 5'10, Sameul Girard 5'10 and 170 Lbs. Now they have plenty of 200 lbs forwards at 6+ feet forwards, but guys like Mikko Rantanen don't play a tough game, they aren't out there laying the body. Rantanen is a prime example of size not being everything becasue he's usually a piece of glass and ends up injured.
Lets look at Vegas, Con Smyth winner Jonathan Marchessault is 5'9 and 183 lbs, Reily Smith is 6'1 but 185 lbs. Now again they have plenty of big guys but they're all more akin to a Ryan Graves in terms of being "tough".
We have size. Crosby is 5'11 but 200 lbs, Malkin is 6'3 - 195 lbs, Rakell 6'1 - 195 lbs, Rust is 5'11 but 195 lbs. Letang is 6 - 200 lbs, Carter is 6'3 - 219 lbs. O'Connor is 6'3 - 200 lbss, Rutta was 6'3 - 204.
Now you also have Lars Ellar at 6'2 and 205 lbs and Ryan Graves at 6'5 - 220 lbs. If Nylander makes the roster he's at 6'1 - 192 lbs.
The Penguins actually have about the same size as most cup winners and playoff contenders. But if you basically want more hits or physicality, well you got them in Noel Accari this season, who's only 5'10 but he's 209 lbs, that weight on that frame makes him a big guy.
Even though as I pointed out the Panthers were the more physical team and lost. Boston also lost as the more physical team vs the Blues.
It doesn't mean as much, it's not the "BIG" factor. It abosolutley is team chemistry that has been bad, that bottom six was useless.
With all due respect, Caleb, I respectfully disagree on the size issue.
Here's how the past six Cup winners have ranked in terms of average weight among the 32 NHL teams:
- '22-23 Vegas (4th)
- '21-22 Colorado (12th)
- '20-21 Tampa Bay (1st)
- '19-20 Tampa Bay (4th)
- '18-19 St. Louis (4th)
- '17-18 Washington (7th)
Yes, the Avs won in 2022 playing a Sullivan-esque speed game. But, as you pointed out, they also had size to go with it. Yes, Florida made it to the Final with a comparatively light team...and got trampled. They had a lot of trouble penetrating the prime scoring areas against the big Golden Knights defense, managing only 12 goals over the five-game series. And they were plenty banged up to boot.
I won't deny that speed and skill are important components. We saw how the Devils skated circles around a pretty good Rangers team. But when they ran into a 'Canes team that has some grind and structure, they couldn't get 'er done.
You need to have a blend of every element, size included, to compete for the Cup.
I'll close with one of my favorite quotes. "Quick guys get tired; big guys don't shrink."
Rick
Hey Rick,
To back up your argument, look at what I misplaced and wrote above. It doesn't matter what the average Hgt and Wgt of the roster is, it only matter what the average Hgt and Wgt of the players on the ice is and when you look at the average Hgt and Wgt of the players (Hgt x TOI and Wgt x TOI) Vegas was massive. Caleb was wrong when he said Vegas was smaller than Florida or small at all.
That is why I am no fan of subjectivity.
Amen Jason, Amen.
The problem with this team has always been the coach and not the players.