Penguins Update: Acquiring Karlsson a Cautionary Tale?

I was perusing other hockey sites the other day as I’m wont to do. Of course, much of the chatter revolved around our proposed deal for Sharks Norris Trophy winner Erik Karlsson.

I came across a comment that gave me pause to ponder while providing the inspiration for this article.

After duly noting Karlsson’s brilliant 101-point season in 2022-23, the likes of which haven’t been seen in the NHL for decades, the writer asked if we could reasonably expect that level of output from the mercurial 33-year-old defenseman again, or if it would prove to be an outlier.

Wow. Talk about snapping things into perspective…and perhaps pouring some cold water on our fevered expectations.

To get a clearer picture of what we might expect, I decided to look at Karlsson’s numbers after he joined the Sharks in a blockbuster trade back in September 2018. Over a four-season span prior to last year’s breakout, the quicksilver defender tallied 142 points in 211 games. That works out to roughly 55 points per full 82-game season.

Certainly not shabby. But not blow-your-doors-off spectacular, either.

Embedded in those 142 points was a grand total of 27 goals…only two more than he scored last season alone. Again, to provide some perspective (or splash more cold water), the player he’ll most likely be traded for, Jeff Petry, scored 42 goals during that span. Kris Letang…48.

Karlsson had health issues to be sure, most notably a groin injury in 2019 that required surgery. And much has been made about the fact that Erik the Great and fellow backline stud Brent Burns did not co-exist easily…nor especially like each other according to rumors. It’s probably no coincidence that Karlsson’s numbers skyrocketed after the Sharks dealt Burns to Carolina last summer (and for a decidedly underwhelming return to boot.)

Still, past performance raises legit questions about what we’d be getting if a trade went through. To say nothing about a potential clash with Letang vis-à-vis Burns over shifting roles and ice time. As they say, there’s only one puck to go around. Would it lead to too much deferment, especially on the power play? A problem that already exists. (You take the puck, Sid. No Geno, you take it, I insist. Hey, let’s give it to Tanger.)

We need a take-charge presence on the power play a la Phil Kessel, something Karlsson’s more-than-capable of providing. However, exemplary team man that he is, would it privately ruffle Letang’s feathers to be placed in a potentially lesser role?

Then there’s the not-small-matter of d-zone play. For all his offensive brilliance, Karlsson is a minus-103 for his career. (By comparison, Paul Coffey was a plus-298, Larry Murphy a plus-197 and Sergei Gonchar a plus-33.) While most metrics mavens will tell you plus-minus is meaningless and point out (rightfully so) that Erik has played on his share of weak teams, the stat can’t be totally disregarded.

With the notable exception of ’12-13, he’s consistently ranked in the bottom portion (sometimes near the bottom) of the league among defensemen in 5v5 goals against and expected goals against according to Evolving Hockey. Based on a study by Corey Sznajder, over the past three seasons (including ’22-23) he’s in the red in most d-zone microstats except for d-zone retrievals. And JFresh rates him a 0 (out of a possible 100) in even strength defensive WAR.

Obviously, Pens president of hockey ops Kyle Dubas isn’t pursuing the three-time Norris Trophy winner for his defensive impact. Either Ryan Graves or Marcus Pettersson should provide a reliable safety net as a partner should Karlsson become black-and-gold property.

So what could we reasonably expect from Karlsson? Best-case scenario, and this is pure speculation, I’d say something along the lines of an 18-goal, 70-point season, a mark he’s reached five times in his career but only once in the past six. That’s if he stays injury-free.

If not, his numbers could tumble as they did in San Jose.

I’m not saying acquiring Karlsson wouldn’t be worth the gamble. He’d give our transition game and power play a huge boost, while adding a new drawing card for our fans.

I would caution against viewing him as some sort of super man savior who’ll cure all of our ills singlehanded.