I was planning to post this article on Monday when news of Mike Sullivan’s departure rolled in like a tsunami. Diverting my attention and energies to more pressing matters.
Better delayed than never, I always say.
To digress, the nerd in me decided to take a gander at how our guys performed 5v5 this season in terms of goals on ice for and against. I also decided to compare their actual goals for percentage (GF%) to their expected goals for percentage (xGF%).
What are expected goals, you ask?
According to Inside the Rink, Expected goals (xG) is a model-based metric used to isolate the evaluation of play-driving and chance-creation/suppression ability from things a player cannot control such as bounces, quality of goaltender, etc.
From the interweb: Each shot is given a value based on success rates for that specific shot type and location becoming a goal, based on years of historical data for that shot location and type. Expected goals for percentage (xGF%) is simply a ratio of a teams xGF in comparison to the opposition.
In other words…hoodoo. But it makes for an interesting comparison.
I then calculated a differential to show how far above or below the expected performance a player tracks. I also threw Corsi (CF%) in for good measure.
Since the numbers pretty much speak for themselves, I’ll spare you a long-winded ramble and point out a few highlights (or lowlights).
Players whose xGF% far outstripped their actual GF% include forwards Cody Glass, Drew O’Connor, Noel Acciari and Matt Nieto. While Acciari and Nieto in particular were cast almost exclusively in defensive roles with very little opportunity to generate offense, the numbers would seem to indicate they didn’t do an especially good job of keeping foes in check, especially the former.
The poster child for the Pens’ cockeyed defense? Pierre-Olivier Joseph. Good skater, decent puckhandler, good xGF% and Corsi. Ghastly actual goals for, goals against numbers.
Talk about a disconnect!
Anyway, read ‘em and (mostly) weep.
| FORWARDS | ||||||
| Player | GF | GA | GF% | xGF% | DIF | CF% |
| Imama | 4 | 2 | 66.67 | 40.87 | 25.80 | 45.71 |
| Poulin | 2 | 1 | 66.67 | 55.77 | 10.90 | 58.90 |
| Heinen | 12 | 10 | 54.55 | 48.60 | 5.95 | 52.12 |
| Crosby | 73 | 72 | 50.34 | 52.39 | -2.05 | 52.48 |
| Puljujärvi | 11 | 11 | 50.00 | 49.16 | 0.84 | 51.08 |
| Koivunen | 2 | 2 | 50.00 | 51.01 | -1.01 | 53.59 |
| McGroarty | 3 | 3 | 50.00 | 57.86 | -7.86 | 57.92 |
| Bemström | 1 | 1 | 50.00 | 57.31 | -7.31 | 57.39 |
| Beauvillier | 31 | 33 | 48.44 | 53.15 | -4.71 | 52.12 |
| Rakell | 66 | 72 | 47.83 | 52.35 | -4.52 | 52.64 |
| Dewar | 8 | 9 | 47.06 | 50.81 | -3.75 | 50.14 |
| Rust | 57 | 65 | 46.72 | 49.76 | -3.04 | 49.34 |
| Malkin | 38 | 45 | 45.78 | 48.05 | -2.27 | 49.80 |
| Lizotte | 21 | 26 | 44.68 | 43.42 | 1.26 | 46.91 |
| Bunting | 26 | 34 | 43.33 | 51.54 | -8.21 | 52.52 |
| Tomasino | 20 | 27 | 42.55 | 49.27 | -6.72 | 51.87 |
| Hayes | 22 | 30 | 42.31 | 52.12 | -9.81 | 52.91 |
| Glass | 18 | 26 | 40.91 | 57.12 | -16.21 | 55.29 |
| Koppanen | 4 | 6 | 40.00 | 33.76 | 6.24 | 45.88 |
| Eller | 7 | 12 | 36.84 | 45.50 | -8.66 | 47.17 |
| O’Connor | 19 | 33 | 36.54 | 51.43 | -14.89 | 51.57 |
| Acciari | 19 | 44 | 30.16 | 45.39 | -15.23 | 44.36 |
| Nieto | 5 | 12 | 29.41 | 43.83 | -14.42 | 45.29 |
| Puustinen | 2 | 6 | 25.00 | 44.44 | -19.44 | 42.64 |
| Ponomarev | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 36.25 | -36.25 | 46.53 |
| Novak | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 34.85 | -34.85 | 40.00 |
| DEFENSEMEN | ||||||
| Player | GF | GA | GF% | xGF% | DIF | CF% |
| Clurman | 0 | 0 | — | 92.65 | — | 77.78 |
| Timmins | 14 | 10 | 58.33 | 55.26 | 3.07 | 57.79 |
| Grzelcyk | 63 | 66 | 48.84 | 47.57 | 1.27 | 50.00 |
| Karlsson | 77 | 82 | 48.43 | 50.91 | -2.48 | 51.53 |
| Pettersson | 47 | 51 | 47.96 | 55.27 | -7.31 | 52.13 |
| Letang | 51 | 62 | 45.13 | 46.91 | -1.78 | 49.10 |
| St. Ivany | 7 | 10 | 41.18 | 44.73 | -3.55 | 45.98 |
| Pickering | 9 | 13 | 40.91 | 50.09 | -9.18 | 49.58 |
| Shea | 17 | 27 | 38.64 | 48.51 | -9.87 | 49.47 |
| Graves | 21 | 34 | 38.18 | 51.07 | -12.89 | 49.86 |
| Kolyachonok | 2 | 6 | 25.00 | 43.42 | -18.42 | 44.78 |
| Joseph | 5 | 21 | 19.23 | 50.70 | -31.47 | 53.47 |
| Desharnais | 1 | 7 | 12.50 | 48.84 | -36.34 | 50.81 |
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Rick
You have way to much time on your hands "LOL". Great job !!
I hope I’m not jumping around too much, but there’s a great read on PensBurgh that’s worth checking out. It features a breakdown of player speed across the league, categorized by defensemen and forwards.
If I read it correctly, Acciari was listed as the 4th slowest forward, while Hayes came in at 18th. On the flip side, Karlsson was ranked as the 4th fastest defenseman — which is impressive.
There are some surprising takeaways in the article. For example, McDavid was ranked 8th in speed, which really caught me off guard.