The Penguins got back on the winning track in Minnesota on Thursday night against the Wild.
After spotting the home team an early lead on a goal by Kirill Kaprizov midway through the first period, the black-and-gold went to work, notching four-straight goals against former Pens draftee Filip Gustavsson.
The goal-getters:
Kris Letang earned top-star honors with a pair of assists. Shea finished the night with a goal and an assist to garner the second star. Tristan Jarry was named third star, stopping 26 of 27 shots according to NHL.com.
Justin Brazeau was held off the score sheet against his former club.
With the victory, the Pens extended their points-streak to eight games while continuing their remarkable start under rookie head coach Dan Muse. We improved to 8-2-2 on the campaign.
Speaking of rookies, it looks as though Kindel will be sticking around for a while.
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I do love the start our Penguins have had. However, I also acknowledge that because of Sully's poor strategies and abrasive personality, it is really hard to assess how bad the last several season's teams really were. Adjusting the team's record for talent opposing them may be more of addition by subtraction (getting rid of Sullivan).
Let's also acknowledge that the WBS Penguins record is largely due to Sergei Murashov - Ron HExtall's pick, not Kyle Dubas. And it is Kyle Dubas that is still refusing to really go with his best Goalies.
No, it takes real effort to be wrong as many times as Dubas has been wrong. Random chance would be 50% and he has been wrong far more than that.
I will not trust his judgement for quite some time, at least until he is in the 80% range.
Don't tell the other Rick!
Hey all,
Just wanted to call your attention to a really nice article by Adam Gretz over on Pensburgh titled, "Penguins' Ben Kindel line turning into something special."
Rick
Primary points (Pnts') are defined as Goals + Primary Assists. Secondary assists are far too often gifts from the official scorer and often really didn't contribute to the play. The League average for Primary Points per 60 minutes 5-on-5 (Pnts'/60 5-on-5) for forwards within a standard deviation of the mean for TOI is 1.32. Ben Kindel's Pnts'/60 5-on-5 is 1.00. If Pnts'/60 5-on-5 were a college test, Kindel's test score would be 56.8 or in other words an F.
In terms of team Goals score while a player is on the ice per 60 minutes 5-on-5 (TGF/60 5-on-5), the League average among players within a standard deviation of the mean for TOI is 2.57, Kindel's TGF/60 5-on-5 is 2.01 which would be a test score of 58.7 or another F.
In terms of team Goals Against while a player is on the ice per 60 minutes 5-on-5 (TGA/60 5-on-5), the League average among players within a standard deviation of the mean for TOI is 2.5. Kindel's TGA/60 5-on-5 is 2.51 which corresponds to a test score of 74.7 or a C.
Considering that the teams our Penguins have played have a points% .667 below the league average, if I had time to adjust Kindel's numbers to the lower level of competition he has played against, those numbers would no doubt be even lower.
Therefore Kindel's first months grades would be F, F, and C which average out to a D-
I realize that it has been an eternity since our Penguins have given a true prospect half a chance, so way too many people's perceptions are (to be kind) skewed. However, even though I truly support the idea of giving the kids a break and have proselytized that very position for the last 8 seasons, I have not lost sight of what constitutes special.
Since there are no style points for looking pretty, I give very little credence to the eye test. All sports, hockey included, are only concerned about stats (Points). When a player isn't contributing to the Pnts/60 at least at the mean or worse is on the ice or field for more Pnts against than Pnts for he is failing regardless of what the subjective "eye tests" means to a casual fan.
This is America, so you are permitted to hold any opinion you wish. However, since I have been nearly right on every call I have made over the last 10 seasons that I have been here you may wish to start considering what I write or at least not during whimsical fancies trying to marginalize what I write.
Hey Other Rick,
To provide some balance, here's how Kindel ranks among the Pens in some key 5v5 metrics:
-- 4th in Corsi (48.37%)
-- 1st in Shots for Percentage (53.15%)
-- 18th in Goals for Percentage (44.44%)
-- 1st in Expected Goals for Percentage (58.46%)
-- 1st in Scoring Chances for Percentage (55.74%)
-- 1st in High Danger Chances for Percentage (64%)
League-wide for skaters who've played at least 60 minutes:
-- 183 out of 584 in Shots for Percentage
-- 76 out of 584 in Expected Goals for Percentage
-- 125 out of 584 in Scoring Chances for Percentage
-- 42 out of 584 in High Danger Chances for Percentage
With all due respect, my friend, that doesn't indicate a below-average player by any means. Quite the contrary.
Bottom line, the coaching staff and management, who are involved with this kid on a daily basis, think enough of him to keep him beyond his nine-game trial, in the process activating the first year of his entry-level contract.
I trust their judgment.
Rick
With all due respect Rick,
Winning the CORSI race, Shots For Percentage race, Scoring Chances Race, or the High Danger Chances For Percentage race do not win you hockey games. Expected Goals For is an absolutely idiotic stat. It cannot truly be measured. It is an arbitrary, subjective stat. If the Expected Goals stat was objective, winning the race for that stat while having a nearly non-existent actual Goals stat means the exact opposite of good. Any player whose Expected Goals For totally outstrips his Actual Goals is the exact opposite of a sniper. He is not converting. That is basic logic.
The only stat that wins hockey games is actual Goals For and Actual Goals against. If a player is not scoring Goals, setting up Goals, or at least being on the ice when team Goals are being scored, he is failing. That is reality.
Worse than not being on the ice when Goals For are being scored is being on the ice when more Goals are scored Against than For and Kindel is on the back end of that stat as well.
I am not telling you to stop having your opinion, I am just showing you were it is failing so that in 8 years you do not have to use the excuse Hindsight is 20/20.
As for Management, they are the same people that signed Jarry and Graves to ridiculous contract. They are the ones that kept trusting Sully's judgement. They are the same ones that traded for Novak and Tomasino. They are the same ones that brought POJ back last season. Their list of failures far outstrips their list of success. The only thing that Dubas may have done right is bring Muse in, and that was 3 years too late.
Hey Other Rick,
Regarding our brass's judgment, I trust it a lot more now that Dan Muse, regarded as a good developer of young talent, is coach.
As for Dubas? I certainly won't argue the fact that a lot of his early moves didn't pan out (or worse). However, it's easy to forget as recently as May 19, 2023, he was GM of the Maple Leafs. A little over a month later he's overseeing our draft and signing free agents.
I also think he was trying to prop the team up for one last competitive run with the old guard. Let's not forget, there was virtually no promotable young talent in the organization at that time.
And I do think he's learned from those early mistakes. No more long-term deals a la Graves and Jarry.
I think his overall performance has improved dramatically, especially since he hired his old Toronto sidekick and talent evaluator, Wes Clark, in the summer of '24.
At this stage, I have more a lot more confidence in him than I used to. His vision for the team's resurgence is starting to take shape.
You can't argue with an 8-2-2 start, not to mention an 8-1 start for the Baby Pens.
Rick
The Penguins Are winning right now and that is a great thing. even though the competition that they have faced is below the average of the league, adjusting their Pnts% is still above the expected by a lot. It is still above .600. However, the team is still super top heavy with Malkin, Crosby, Karlsson, and Letang carrying the load for everyone else. Only 26 of the teams 44 Goals have been scored 5-on-5 and 18 of those Goals have been scored by Crosby, Malkin or one of their line mates.
Kindel has figured in only 42% of the precious few TGF scored while he is on the ice. Some day he may be a good hockey player, but it is not today. In fact he is failing right now.