Yes, you read my title right. And, no, I haven’t been nipping at the bottle or taken leave of my senses. (At least not completely.)
I repeat. Can our Penguins win a Stanley Cup?
Back in 2017-18, nobody expected the expansion Golden Knights to go all the way to the Final. But they did. I’ve written on several occasions that this black-and-gold bunch has a “Misfits” feel.
We have a passel of players like Connor Dewar, Brett Kulak, Blake Lizotte, Anthony Mantha, Tommy Novak and Stuart Skinner who’ve established themselves elsewhere, but perhaps are seeking a bit of redemption.
Others, most notably Justin Brazeau, Egor Chinakhov, Ryan Shea, Arturs Silovs and Parker Wotherspoon, are still trying to establish their big-league bona fides.
Wrap that around a superstar core that’s determined to show everyone that age is just a number, especially in the case of Evgeni Malkin?
You have a highly motivated group that feels like it has something to prove. One that’s displayed a marvelous esprit de corps, not to mention a palpable joy and all-for-one mentality. Indeed, these guys really seem to like each other and enjoy playing together. And they’re hungry for success.
To say nothing of the pride of our leadership group. You think Geno, Sidney Crosby and Kris Letang don’t want to hoist another Cup in the worst way? Erik Karlsson, too?
Add it all up? A near perfect storm of roster construction.
It isn’t just the intangibles that have me dreaming of Lord Stanley’s chalice. When everyone’s healthy, coach Dan Muse can roll four solid lines. I can’t think of another NHL club that can match us in terms of productivity, balance and chemistry up front. Even our battlin’ fourth line is a game-changer.
Our special teams are among the best in the league. We’re holding our own 5v5 as well.
Ah, Buker, but what about our defense? Patchwork at best.
I’ll agree it’s a no-name bunch aside from Karlsson and Letang, both enjoying a resurgent seasons. However, Muse and his staff have gotten incredible mileage out of retreads like Shea, Wotherspoon and aggressive Connor Clifton. Kulak has been a stabilizer since his arrival.
Too, Muse’s attacking, connected style is designed to keep the heat off our defense and goalies and squarely on opponents. We’re 13th in the league in fewest shots allowed per game (27.8). Eighth-best in goals allowed per game (2.84).
None too shabby.
Bottom line? We’re keeping the puck out of our net.
Of course, a big piece of that puzzle has been the play of our goalies. Skinner in particular, has been a revelation.
Just how good has Big Stuuuu been? Over his past eight starts, he’s 7-1 with a sterling .934 save percentage. To say he’s in a groove right now is the understatement of the century.
Okay, so that level of play might not be sustainable for a netminder who’s experienced his share of highs and lows. But with his size, positioning and coolness under fire, he’s reminding me very much of a young Matt Murray, albeit with a better glove. And we know what the kid accomplished before health woes and the death of his father took him down.
Too, Big Stu is playoff tested, having been to the Finals two seasons running with the Oilers.
As for Silovs? Last season Arturs backstopped his Abbotsford club to an AHL Calder Cup while earning postseason MVP honors. He’s been solid of late. As for his Achilles heel? There are no shootouts come the postseason.
Reasons why we won’t win a Cup? The strength of the competition, most notably teams like Tampa Bay, Colorado and Dallas. Yet as good as they are, I don’t fear them. I don’t think there’s anyone out there we can’t hold our own against over a seven-game set.
Age could be another factor. However, I’m reminded that the ’01-02 Red Wings won a Cup with 40-somethings Chris Chelios and Igor Larionov filling key roles, not to mention 37-year-old Brett Hull and 36-year-old captain Steve Yzerman.
Too, we’ve missed the postseason three years running, which means we should be relatively fresh.
I see injuries as the greatest threat to our Cup chances. When Malkin and Lizotte went down in December, we stumbled through an eight-game losing streak. But even that dreadful 0-4-4 stretch had value. From the coaching staff on down, it taught us how to overcome adversity. And every Cup champion faces adversity.
If the team continues on its present course? It wouldn’t surprise me to see POHO Kyle Dubas swing savvy deals for reinforcements come the trade deadline. He certainly has the cap space to do it.
I’ll close with a hidden stat. Excluding the aforementioned losing streak and including our 5-1-1 preseason, the Pens have a record of 31-11-8. That’s a .720 points percentage.
Let that sink in for a moment.
Call me a dreamer. Say I’m being unrealistic.
I choose to believe.
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Some very hot takes in this comments section heh.
might be worth it to find some RD depth though, in case Letang's injury becomes a problem, or EK65 gets hurt.
Hello Keeger,
Yes, every once in a while you'll see me and Other Rick engage in some lively back-and-forth. We're kind of like the Odd Couple. Both very opinionated, often on opposite sides of the coin. We occasionally agree, too ... :)
Regarding right 'd' depth, I hear ya. I'm probably in the vast minority, but I rather like what Connor Clifton brings to the table. He's consistently physical, skates very well and isn't afraid to join or support the attack. I think he's fine as a third defenseman but I get your point...you don't especially want him moonlighting for Karlsson or Letang.
What I absolutely don't want to do? Trade Anthony Mantha to get the help you spoke of. Or for any other return or purpose, for that matter.
Rick
Rick,
Way back at the end of October I said that this team had a chance to go to the Cup Finals, considering how weak the East is – provided that the team dump Jarry and Silvos and play Murashov and when he got healthy Blomqvist and I still say that. You disagreed.
You fought me tooth and nail over Sullivan, when I said he was the factor holding this team back. Hmm
I am going to say this now, with Skinner and Silovs this team is at best, one and done. A team backstopped by Skinner and Blomqvist could sneak into the divisional finals. Only a team boasting Blomqvist and Murashov as I wrote before.
The league average for Rebound Shots Against (RSA) is 5.6/60, Skinner’s is a bloated 6.55. Murray’s RSA that first Cup year was 2.4/60 in the regular season and only 3.72 during the playoff run.
In the end, if changes do not occur in the net, I see this team as a clone of Dubas’ Toronto teams, good enough to get into the playoffs, but too weak in Goal to do anything but trip during the first dance.
I do agree that Murashov could use some coaching up; he still over-reacts like a young MAF used to do, but Blomqvist was ready long ago. The only thing Blomqvist and Murashov are doing in WBS right now is picking up bad/lazy habits playing against sub-NHL level talent. They are not being challenged by the glut of has-beens and never-was-or-will-be s. These two prospects are being hurt by the hypocrisy of the organization playing 18-year-old skaters, while burying 23-year-old-Goalies.
Hey Other Rick,
Wow, my friend. I fought with you tooth and nail over Sullivan?
Either you have an extremely short and selective memory, or you’re practicing revisionist history. Or both. Here’s just a sampling of some of the articles I wrote about our former coach:
“Penguins Lose Again, Time to Say Goodbye” October 24, 2024
“Is it Time for the Penguins to Move on from Mike Sullivan?” April 15, 2023
“Penguins Update: Is it Time for Sullivan to Go?” January 4, 2023
“Penguins Update: Time for a Coaching Change” May 29, 2021
I can provide others if you like.
I gave him credit where credit is due for our back-to-back Cups and the redeeming qualities he possesses. But at no time in recent history did I fully endorse him as coach. Most of the time, the opposite.
As for the goaltending? There have been teams that won Stanley Cups riding rookie goalies. The Canadiens with Ken Dryden and, of course, the Pens with Matt Murray come to mind. But two rookie goalies? At least to my knowledge, it hasn’t been done. Hard to imagine we'd be the first.
I’ve got to think when Murashov and Blomqvist are deemed ready, they’ll be promoted in due course. In the meantime, I trust such decisions to the people who work with them and track their progress on a daily basis.
The 18-year-old you’re referring to? (Kindel I’m assuming?) From everything I’ve read, including comments by his teammates and coach, he deserves to be here.
FYI: as a 19-year-old rookie, Leon Draisaitl scored two goals and nine points in 37 games. Kindel has 10 goals and 22 points in 48 games as an 18-year-old. I'm not saying the kid's going to be the next Deutschland Dangler. I am saying what he's done is very impressive.
Rick
Rick
On the 1987-88 Penguins team that finished last in the old Patrick division, Jock Callander scored 11 Gs and had 27 Pnts in 41 GP. In 1980-81 Doug Shedden scored 10 Gs and had 25pnts in 38 GP on the 2nd to last place Penguins team in the old Patrick division.
As for the Comments of the Coaching staff and players comments, no one on the team ever said anything bad about Sullivan - how did that turn out. And since the Coach is making comments about a player he chose to keep in the NHL instead of sending down to the Jrs, do really think he would compromise his own decisions with negative comments?
Maybe some day Kindel will be a legitimate good middle six, but Blomqvist and Murashov had better claims on roster spots and despite these last 2 games against 2 cellar dweller teams, the near 20 game scoreless slump Kindel suffered should give anyone pause; well anyone not blinded by the novelty of a Penguins coach finally playing a true prospect.
Just like most players, given the time and space cellar dwellers afford an opponent, even Kindel can make a play, but come playoff time, when time and space are a very rare commodity, the 20 game slump may just return and our 11th round pick may end up being a Jock Callander and not a Leon Draisaitl or even a Doug Shedden.
Comparing Kindel to Jock Callander is like comparing a watermelon to a grape. They're both fruits, but that's where the comparison ends.
Callander was an outstanding minor-league scorer and a journeyman NHLer. Kindel oozes talent and promise.
But go right ahead. Continue to ignore the stated opinions of coaches and teammates, who love the kid, and stick to your narrative...
Rick
You may be right Rick, comparing Kindel to Callander may be like comparing a grape to Watermelon. IN Callander’s rookie season, his longest scoring slump was only 10 games long, so far Kindel owns a 19 game scoring slump with enough time to eclipse that mark.
However, to be fair, Kindel may turn to be at least as good as Callander, or even better
Now for a little more Penguins’ rookie season history,
Zarley Zalapsky 45 Pnts in 58 GP
Robbie Brown – 44 Pnts in 51 GP
Andy Brickley – 38 Pnts in 50 GP
Michel Oulette – 32 Pnts in 50 GP
Ben Kindle – 24 Pnts in 49 GP
There are a lot of other players above Kindel in the Penguins Rookie Season Scoring, but I just kept this list to those who played in or around the same number of games as Kindel. Kindel needs 8 Pnts in his next game to tie Oulette, 14 Pnts to tie Brickley, 20 points in 2 GP to tie Robbie Brown, and 21 Pnts in 9 GP to tie a Defenseman Rookie. Just to put this player’s season in perspective.
I beg to differ, my friend. Callander most certainly played on Mario's line in '87-88. Go back and check out Callander's game and scoring logs from that season on Hockey Reference and see how many times they factored in on each other's goals.
I'll save you trouble. Mario assisted on eight of Callander's 11 goals. Likewise, 11 of Callander's 16 assists came on plays involving Mario.
Jock got off to a meteoric start skating next to Mario, notching nine goals and 23 points in his first 22 games a la Scorin' Warren Young. I have vague recollection of Steigy making comments like, "How could this guy have been buried so long in the minors?" (Callander was 26.)
Then Jock cooled off and they pulled him off Mario's line. Never to taste the same success at the NHL level again.
Rick
PS-I'll add that in '87-88, Callander played a significant amount next to a fellow who wore No. 66.
Rick
I did look back at the 87-88 season and he did score several goals with Mario, you were at least partially right. However, you are still skirting many, many issues. Michel Oulette and Andy Brickley certainly never skated with Mario and Zalapsky was a Defenseman who stands to fare far better in scoring than Kindel. And many, many of these other players (including Callander) played when the Two-Line Pass existed, when goons still ruled, before equipment added speed to players skating and shots, when the league was smaller and teams were far more talent dense. Most of these players played on Penguins teams that couldn't win games.
I get it, you like Kindel and you want to see him succeed. Since he is on the team, I also want to see him succeed - for the teams sake. However, you are so starved you hang your hat on a prospect that you see far more than may be there. I am not so starved that I choose players or Coaches over team. I try to keep perspective.
However, all of the talk about Kindel is but a distraction, you gloss over the most important part of my comment, the hypocrisy of saying that an 18 year old is ready to play while denying a 23 year old who outplayed the veteran Goalies over the same time frame. You even try to justify a double standard even though you haver donned goalie gear to know what it take to play the position, physically or mentally. All else is secondary to my contention that as it stands now, the Goalies will limit the team but the sky will be the limit if the team would stop being so afraid of losing that they keep themselves from winning.
The sticks were still a heavier wood with far less of a curve (you could still get a penalty for to great of a curve). The Skates were less advanced. And Goalies could roam all over their own zone to keep the dump and chase plays down by comparison. Our own Tom Barrasso was a master of breaking up that type of attack as was one time GM, one time nemesis Ron Hextall.
Scoring is a great deal easier in today's hockey.
Callander played on a team with Mario, not on Mario's line. Moreover, in 87-88 the league was considerably smaller. Talent per team was far denser. The two-line ass was still in effect and icing rules were different. The game was far less open. It was also far, far more physical with far less obstruction penalties being called.
Rick
As for Goaltending, Dubas has shown he hasn't a clue about what makes a good Goalie. His teams in Toronto failed in net. He even bought a troubled Matt Murray when Murray was at his lowest and He listened to Sullivan and signed Jarry to a (at the time) STUPID contract that the team only now has been ablet o get out from under. No one in this organization has done anything to show that they are capable of "deeming" anything about goalies.
You can trust "their" decisions all you want, that is your prerogative. And as the odds say that it will follow you always write "hindsight is 20/20" again to defend not listening to me.
Yes, I'll trust their decisions, and not just blindly hand the net over to two goalies who haven't proven anything yet at the NHL level. That goes for Murashov (.897 SV%) and especially Blomqvist (4-9-1 record, .885 SV%).
Rick
One thing about stats, they are useless when taken out of context. When the Penguins defense was at its worst last season, from the season start until Blomqvist last game (Nov 11, 2024) before being summarily banished to the minors and not even allowed to play there regularly,
Jarry’s Sv% was 0.836 despite only facing 27.82 SOG/60. His HDSv% was a paltry 0.793.
Nedeljkovic’s Sv% was 0.882 while facing even fewer SOG/60 (24.26) and his HDSv% was even lower (0.758)
Blomqvist however held a Sv% of 0.904 even though the defense protected him the least, ceding 34.02 SOG/60. Blomqvist also beat his team mates by a country mile in HDSv% (0.873). Blomqvist HDSv% was much higher than Jarry’s overall Sv% and almost as high as Ned’s overall Sv%. Yet he was the Goalie demoted to WBS. That is a matter of record.
Under the same conditions, Blomqvist was clearly the best Goalie
When Sullivan finally started to concede somewhat on his pathetic defensive schemes it was too late for Blomqvist, he wasn’t even getting any real starts in WBS. Blomqvist became an afterthought, because he was good enough to make the difficult save look easy, rather than make the easy save look highlight reel. His Sv% then drifted up as he sat rusting; rusting because of a distinct lack of knowledge as to what an NHL calibre Goalie looks like in this organization.
This preseason, Blomqvist had the best Sv%, as good as it could get, 1.000%, tied with MAF. Unfortunately, the young Finn was injured.
Murashov, on the other hand, as I wrote, could use a good Goalie coach to calm him down. He was 2nd behind Jarry in Sv% (0.897 vs 0.907) and HDSv5 (0.875 vs 0.900) but Murashov has a far greater upside and both he and Blomqvist will be backsliding and picking up lazy habits playing against AHL level talent.
PS-I would think if Dubas & Co. were fully confident that either of our young goalies were ready, they wouldn't have made the deal for Silovs.
Rick
As I noted elsewhere, Dubas has never shown any ability to pick a Goalie. The only way I would ask his advice on a Goalie was to do the exact opposite of what he said, knowing that I may not be right, but Dubas would certainly be wrong. His time in Toronto and his signing of Jarry shown complete incompetence on this issue.
Rick,
No revisionist history or any other excuse. First, most of our discussions have not occurred on-line; they have been in person. Second, even in the end, when only the blindest of fans could ignore the piling losses did you begin to suggest that the team consider a coaching change. However, even in the those moments when you weakened, you still argued that Sullivan was a great coach and that his only problem was he was just stale. Even when showed all of the statistical evidence that Sullivan's "system" can only work with a Georges Vezina like goalie. When I said that only reason why the Pens won that back-to-back Cup was that Fleury stole that Cap series despite Sullivan's defense, you refused to acknowledge. Yes, in the end, you now say hindsight is 20/20, but I started writing these things in 2017-18 - foresight.
Going into this season, the Rangers should have been better than our Penguins, at least on paper. Unfortunately for them, they bought a dud coach, and even though they boasted what should have been better skaters and certainly a better Goalie than either Jarry or Silovs, they pretty have trailed our Penguins all season. Once they lost Shesterkin (a nigh MAF like Goalie) they bottomed out. Everything I said showing up true (the way I called in 2018).
Even in the posts you cite above, you tempered your stance with out clauses and ignored how bad Sully's coaching was.
Wow, Rick, did you read the title of my articles...or the articles themselves?
Yes, I try to be more balanced than you in my assessments. Guilty as charged. Things are never as black-and-white as you like to portray. There are shades of gray.
That goes for Sully as well. Is he the best coach around? No. Did he deserve to be as deified as he was around here? No. But he isn't the anti-Christ, either.
Rick
You may get blue and white finds that would argue with you on that one, as their favorite team is about to have a fire sale and get the best odds for the McKenna draft. Sully was a passenger on the Sid, Geno, MAF, Murray, Phil bus.
It's gonna be a tough road, but with a bit of luck and some health I think they can make a good run. I'm curious to see what moves Dubas makes at the deadline. Please don't mortgage the future for a rental, and don't mess with the chemistry too much either!
Hey Nick,
A big amen to not mortgaging the future for a rental and especially not messing with our chemistry, which is pure gold right now.
Rick