Is the Penguins’ Defense Better?

Last week, I posed the following question. Are the Penguins a better team following a fleury (er…flurry) of moves by Kyle Dubas?

Today I thought I’d narrow my focus to our defense, which our POHO/GM significantly overhauled, and ask a similar question.

Is our defense better?

It sure is different. Four blueliners from last season’s bunch exited through trades or free agency, including two (Ryan Shea and Parker Wotherspoon) who filled prominent roles.

We’re deeper on the right side, appreciably thinner on the left.

I decided to compare the newcomers and departees in three different ways in an attempt to answer my own question.

I chose four of the more common underlying 5v5 stats, Corsi, Shots for Percentage (SF%), Goals for Percentage (GF%) and Expected Goals for Percentage (xGF%).

There isn’t much to separate the two groups here. All seven d-men were well above 50 percent in GF%, perhaps the metric that matters most of all. It should be noted that the two defensemen who had the strongest metrics, Wotherspoon and Kaeden Korczak, were traded for each other.

Here’s where we start to see some separation. WAR seems to favor the newcomers, especially Korczak and Trevor van Riemsdyk. But hold the phone. Based on ice time, Korczak and Declan Carlile are regarded as depth defenders, while all of the departed were categorized as third pairing or better. So perhaps the separation isn’t so great after all.

I’ll wrap up my analysis by comparing traditional stats. In terms of output, Shea (35 points) and Wotherspoon (30 points) were easily the most productive of the two groups. Korczak topped the newbies with 16 points, followed by 14 for van Riemsdyk.

CONCLUSION

While the newcomers appear to be capable of holding their own, especially when it comes to defending, Dubas’ moves have left us with only one established NHL port-sider, Sam Girard. That leaves two open slots, one of which will likely be filled by Carlile.

As for the other?

Assistant GM Jason Spezza suggested van Riemsdyk, a right-shot, could play the left side. Some guys, like former Pen Trevor Daley can play and even thrive on their off-side. Most can’t.

Spezza also named former first-round pick Owen Pickering and even free-agent bust Ryan Graves as players who could fill the void. Although not specifically mentioned, Ilya Solovyov could as well.

My conclusion? Our defense isn’t as strong, certainly not as balanced, as it was at season’s end.

SOLUTIONS?

In an idea originally floated by Dan Kingerski of PHN, I’d love to see Dubas take a swing at acquiring Hurricanes RFA defenseman Alex Nikishin, a mobile, 6’3” 218-pound all-arounder who’d go a long (long) way toward solidifying the left side of our defense, possibly for years to come.

Carolina GM Eric Tulsky has made it clear that any deal for the 24-year-old rearguard would also involve Jesperi Kotkaniemi, the ‘Canes version of Graves.

If the asking price isn’t too prohibitive, I say go for it. (Note: Nikishin isn’t offer-sheet eligible.)

A defenseman who can be had with an offer sheet, and probably cheaply to boot? The Canadiens’ Albanian thumper, Arber Xhekaj.

Okay, so acquiring (or offer-sheeting) the 6’4” 240-pounder has about as much chance of happening as…well…it doesn’t. Xhekaj isn’t a future all-star, or the type of player the Pens typically pursue. But he’s an ultra-intimidating presence and one of the top heavyweights in the league, attributes we’re clearly lacking. And Xhekaj (nickname Wi-Fi) grades out surprisingly well as a puck mover, especially advancing the puck out of his own end.

While we’re at it, I’d try to pry loose his kid brother, Florian, a nasty forward who goes 6’3” 205 and possesses some skill, from the Habs as well.