Last week, I posed the following question. Are the Penguins a better team following a fleury (er…flurry) of moves by Kyle Dubas?
Today I thought I’d narrow my focus to our defense, which our POHO/GM significantly overhauled, and ask a similar question.
Is our defense better?
It sure is different. Four blueliners from last season’s bunch exited through trades or free agency, including two (Ryan Shea and Parker Wotherspoon) who filled prominent roles.
We’re deeper on the right side, appreciably thinner on the left.
I decided to compare the newcomers and departees in three different ways in an attempt to answer my own question.
| METRICS |
||||
| Player (In) | CORSI | SF% | GF% | xGF% |
| Carlile | 49.39 | 45.50 | 54.55 | 48.66 |
| Korczak | 51.53 | 53.37 | 53.68 | 54.30 |
| van Riemsdyk | 47.81 | 48.36 | 52.56 | 50.53 |
| Player (Out) | CORSI | SF% | GF% | xGF% |
| Clifton | 48.33 | 49.67 | 53.45 | 55.15 |
| St. Ivany | 47.74 | 47.47 | 56.00 | 47.67 |
| Shea | 49.11 | 49.08 | 58.33 | 51.20 |
| Wotherspoon | 52.14 | 52.84 | 54.69 | 50.91 |
| Courtesy of Natural Stat Trick | ||||
I chose four of the more common underlying 5v5 stats, Corsi, Shots for Percentage (SF%), Goals for Percentage (GF%) and Expected Goals for Percentage (xGF%).
There isn’t much to separate the two groups here. All seven d-men were well above 50 percent in GF%, perhaps the metric that matters most of all. It should be noted that the two defensemen who had the strongest metrics, Wotherspoon and Kaedan Korczak, were traded for each other.
| WAR |
||||
| Player (In) | WAR | EVO | EVD | TOI |
| Carlile | 62 | 31 | 56 | Depth |
| Korczak | 83 | 62 | 93 | Depth |
| van Riemsdyk | 85 | 60 | 92 | 3rd Pr |
| Player (Out) | WAR | EVO | EVD | TOI |
| Clifton | 61 | 66 | 64 | 3rd Pr |
| St. Ivany | 35 | 26 | 64 | 3rd Pr |
| Shea | 55 | 55 | 30 | 2nd Pr |
| Wotherspoon | 78 | 34 | 89 | 2nd Pr |
| Courtesy of JFresh Hockey | ||||
Here’s where we start to see some separation. WAR seems to favor the newcomers, especially Korczak and Trevor van Riemsdyk. But hold the phone. Based on ice time, Korczak and Declan Carlile are regarded as depth defenders, while all of the departed were categorized as third pairing or better. So perhaps the separation isn’t so great after all.
| BOXCARS | |||||
| Player (In) | GP | G | A | PTS | +/- |
| Carlile | 42 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| Korczak | 78 | 3 | 13 | 16 | 6 |
| van Riemsdyk | 68 | 3 | 11 | 14 | 6 |
| Player (Out) | GP | G | A | PTS | +/- |
| Clifton | 50 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 5 |
| St. Ivany | 20 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 4 |
| Shea | 80 | 6 | 29 | 35 | 30 |
| Wotherspoon | 80 | 3 | 27 | 30 | 17 |
I’ll wrap up my analysis by comparing traditional stats. In terms of output, Shea (35 points) and Wotherspoon (30 points) were easily the most productive of the two groups. Korczak topped the newbies with 16 points, followed by 14 for van Riemsdyk.
CONCLUSION
While the newcomers appear to be capable of holding their own, especially when it comes to defending, Dubas’ moves have left us with only one established NHL port-sider, Sam Girard. That leaves two open slots, one of which will likely be filled by Carlile.
As for the other?
Assistant GM Jason Spezza suggested van Riemsdyk, a right-shot, could play the left side. Some guys, like former Pen Trevor Daley can play and even thrive on their off-side. Most can’t.
Spezza also named former first-round pick Owen Pickering and even free-agent bust Ryan Graves as players who could fill the void. Although not specifically mentioned, Ilya Solovyov could as well.
My conclusion? Our defense isn’t as strong, certainly not as balanced, as it was at season’s end.
SOLUTIONS?
In an idea originally floated by Dan Kingerski of PHN, I’d love to see Dubas take a swing at acquiring Hurricanes RFA defenseman Alex Nikishin, a mobile, 6’3” 218-pound all-arounder who’d go a long (long) way toward solidifying the left side of our defense, possibly for years to come.
Carolina GM Eric Tulsky has made it clear that any deal for the 24-year-old rearguard would also involve Jesperi Kotkaniemi, the ‘Canes version of Graves.
If the asking price isn’t too prohibitive, I say go for it. (Note: Nikishin isn’t offer-sheet eligible.)
A defenseman who can be had with an offer sheet, and probably cheaply to boot? The Canadiens’ Albanian thumper, Arber Xhekaj.
Okay, so acquiring (or offer-sheeting) the 6’4” 240-pounder has about as much chance of happening as…well…it doesn’t. Xhekaj isn’t a future all-star, or the type of player the Pens typically pursue. But he’s an ultra-intimidating presence and one of the top heavyweights in the league, attributes we’re clearly lacking. And Xhekaj (nickname Wi-Fi) grades out surprisingly well as a puck mover, especially advancing the puck out of his own end.
While we’re at it, I’d try to pry loose his kid brother, Florian, a nasty forward who goes 6’3” 205 and possesses some skill, from the Habs as well.
Rick
None of us really know yet if the defensemen Dubas brought in will make the Penguins better. That’s something we’ll have to see once the season starts. But I do trust both Dubas and Dan Muse. Dubas has earned the benefit of the doubt “IMO” and Muse has shown he knows how to get the best out of his players. Proof of that was Ryan Shea and Ryan Wotherspoon—both having career years under Muse. I’m confident Muse had some input with the new additions, and he feels like the
players they signed are a system / team fit. I remember shaking my head last year when he signed Wotherspoon, now I’m
shaking my head that he’s gone. LOL
Hey Mike,
Excellent thoughts and observations. The fact that I really liked last season’s team and would’ve gladly had everyone return no doubt colors my opinion.
Great insights into the role Muse and the coaching staff had on getting the most out of players like Wotherspoon and Shea. The latter, in particular, looked like a completely different player to me, bearing scant resemblance to who he was his first couple of seasons here.
Feel the same about Wotherspoon (and Shea and Mantha, even Acciari) in terms of shaking my head on both ends of the spectrum. Just really grew to appreciate these guys over the course of the season.
Again, a likely reflection of the “Muse effect.”
Rick
PS–Are you as concerned about us taking a step back physically as I am?
Rick
Absolutely. My concerns actually go a bit deeper. It appears we’re moving away from the size we had in the lineup last season, and in my opinion, that size played a significant role in our success. It gave us a stronger net-front presence, created more space for our skilled players to operate, and made us a more difficult team to play against. Hopefully I’m wrong, but it’s something I’ll be watching closely. Where definitely on the same page when it comes
to physicality – you have to have some level of push back.
Also, have you seen Tanner Howe’s name mentioned anywhere? I’m wondering if the three-year contract signed by Lozotte puts Howe in a bit of a holding pattern. Their playing styles seem fairly similar, so I’m curious if the organization views them as competing for the same role.
Hey Mike,
Agree 100 percent with your concerns. It wasn’t that we were knuckle-dragging or goony tough last season, but the team as a collective played with a lot of grit and spirit. We had lots of guys–Clinton, Acciari, Mantha, Dewar and Wotherspoon chief among them–who weren’t afraid to stick up for the team when push came to shove. Avery Hayes, too.
As you pointed out, our new-found size with guys like Mantha, Brazeau and Soderblom certainly made us difficult for other teams to handle. Can you imagine trying to match up physically against the Mantha-Malkin-Brazeau line?
Now Mantha’s gone, replaced by Kuzmenko, who in no way, shape or form provides the same presence. And Brazeau is likely looking at a reduced role (or a possible exit). Trevor van Riemsdyk has decent size and is a solid defenseman, but he had 12 hits last season. Yup, a dozen. And that’s not an anomaly, but rather pretty much his norm.
It only takes swapping out a couple guys who provide size and physicality for a couple who don’t to alter a team’s character and competitive makeup.
Rick
Rick
I agree 100% – Our only hope is that Dubas has plans to make several more additions’
to the roster / lineup.
Hey Rick,
I do agree with you that the Penguins’ defense, at the moment, looks worse this coming season than it did last season. They have lost 3,124.6 minutes of TOI in terms of LHD with the departure of Shea and Wotherspoon. Yes van Riemsdyk has covered the port side in the past, but that doesn’t make him a LHD, he is simply an RHD that can cover the left side in a pinch – his numbers get significantly worse when playing his off pairing.
I do like the idea of going after Nikishin even if it means taking on Kotkaniemi’s contract. The team has a ton of Cap space and in a worse case scenario they could bury Kotkaniemi to recoup about $1.2 mil in cap space. In a best case scenario, he just may be a serviceable bottom 6 forward that could play Wing or Center – I haven’t followed the Canes close enough to know. His numbers last season were horrible. Last year may have been an anomaly. Over the previous seasons, his numbers were not all that different from Novak, Tomasino, Lapierre, Kevin Hayes, Nick Robertson. David Gustafsson, Nieto, Kopanen, etc, etc. Dubas has wasted more roster spots on lesser players.
Also, if Ottawa is still interested in Rakell, I would investigate Sanderson. That could be another real steal.
Either Nikishin or Sanderson would actually help the team far more than Robertson or Petterson.
Hey Other Rick,
Thanks for the input, especially on van Riemsdyk’s history on his off-side. It’s a very rare bird, indeed, who can thrive on his opposite side.
I don’t know if you’ve ever expressed this in an article or comment, but during our discussions you’ve often pointed out that Dubas seems to have great difficulty assembling a complete defensive corps dating back to his time in Toronto. Unless he makes another move for an established port-sider, that would certainly seem to be the case here.
I consider our defense “incomplete,” for lack of a better way to describe it. The fact that Ryan Graves seems to have re-entered the discussion as a possible left-side option scares me to death.
Rick
It is tough for enough for LHD to play RHD, but to date, I can’t think of any RHD who were anything close to competent on their Left Side. Perhaps lefties find it easier to play their off-hand because of the lack of RHD at one time (although RHD seems more prevalent now – at least for our Penguins who seemed to have cornered the market on RHD). The only two Penguins that seemed to be able to flow back and forth, in recent years were Jamie Oleksiak and Trevor Daley. Perhaps LHD find it easier to play their off
I am not sure if I have wrote this anywhere yet, but yes, for some time our Penguins have been looking like Toronto Part Deux. We haven’t used our best Goalies, our defense is comprised of “Puck Movers” surrounded by a host of fringe journeymen with none of them able to truly defend their crease.
100% Rick, there is something seriously wrong if someone is suggesting to bring Graves back into the discussion.
Rick
Just my humble opinion or Graves. I think Dubas and the Pens front office staff keep floating Graves
name as someone who could earn a roster spot in hopes that another team might bite. I personally
wouldn’t read to much into his name popping up.
Also, I believe Dubas has surrounded himself with knowledgable hockey people who have shown with
previous moves that there capable at recongnizing / evaluating players that need a system change
to maximize there abilities. I do believe theirs a trade coming.