Throughout the summer, I’ve questioned some of Kyle Dubas’ moves. None more than signing free-agent forward Andrei Kuzmenko to a one-year contract for $5 million on July 1.
I’ve even gone as far as labelling the deal a mistake on a couple of occasions, primarily due to the fact that Kuzmenko’s presence is blocking a roster spot that could’ve gone to a prospect like Rutger McGroarty.
However, yesterday afternoon I bumped into PP colleague Caleb DiNatale while working the front desk at Wright’s Gym. During our ensuing hockey talk, Caleb mentioned Kuzmenko. Contrary to my overall negative opinion of the signing, Caleb thinks it could be one of those smart, sneaky-good moves Dubas has become known for.
To digress, Caleb first broached the idea of trading for Kuzmenko a couple of seasons ago, roughly when the Flames acquired the Russian winger from Vancouver in a multi-player swap for Elias Lindholm. During our conversation yesterday, he reinforced the notion that Kuzmenko is a Dubas-type player.
Since Caleb’s player evaluations are generally spot-on and I greatly respect his opinion, I decided to take a closer look at the 30-year-old winger. After all, a player doesn’t score 39 goals in a season as Kuzmenko did for the Canucks (as an NHL rookie to boot) back in 2022-23 by accident. There has to be some skill involved.
I decided to watch some clips of some of his goals from last season and must admit I was impressed. Andrei’s talent literally leaps off the video. Reinforcing his career 20.4 shooting percentage, his sizzling shot (rated in the 90th percentile by NHL Edge) grabs your attention, not to mention his hands and instincts in the attacking zone.
Although a sub-50 percentile skater according to NHL Edge, both in terms of skating speed and 20 MPH bursts, his edge work is superb, which serves to make him dangerous in tight quarters.
Despite his limitations as a skater, Kuzmenko’s advanced stats are remarkably good. Five-on-five, he’s consistently above 50 percent in possession-based metrics, including Corsi, Shots for Percentage and Expected Goals for Percentage. His overall WAR, 84 percent according to JFresh, is excellent. His even-strength offensive (71%) and defensive (60%) WARs are good, too. Belying his rep as a one-trick pony.
One aspect of Andrei’s game that is crystal clear? He scores a whopping portion of his goals on the power-play. Forty percent, or 34 of his 85 career NHL goals, to be exact.
To get the most out of the 5’11” 200-pounder, it stands to reason he’ll need to see plenty of action with the man-advantage. Which could mean bumping countryman Evgeni Malkin, whose shot has waned in recent seasons, from the top unit.
Whether or not black-and-gold skipper Dan Muse would be willing to shake up his established combinations remains to be seen.
Still, with proper deployment, Kuzmenko—who by all accounts is happy to be here—could, indeed, be a productive and even lethal addition to the Penguins’ arsenal.
I close my eyes and can envision him and fellow sniper Egor Chinakhov forming a wicked 1-2 punch on the power play.
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Rick,
I am a stat man. Stat's are objective evidence of what happened on the ice. The only problem with stats comes from trying to understand what they mean. You mention Kuzmenko's advanced stats, he CF% and SF% and marvelled at how they were over 50% (the break even point - putting him on the positive side of the equation). In fact, the new Penguins' career CF% is 52.55% and his career SF% is 51.6%, on the plus side of the equation. However, a deeper look at Kuzmenko's stats shows his career O-Zone start % is 65.11%. Considering the precious few D-Zone starts Kuzmenko gets, positive numbers in CF% and SF% should be a given. (Same with the xGF% department). What I find interesting is that desparity between how positive his O-Zone Start% is and the fact that his CF%, SF%, and xGF% are all over 10% lower - but then again I am no fan of WAR or JFRESH.
Another interesting career stat of Kuzmenko, when you compare his O-Zone FO% to his O-Zone Start %, it is also significantly lower, (59.16% VS 65.11%). There may be other confounding variables but it certainly looks like Kuzmenko is forfeiting the great starts he is getting and may only be getting one and down chances.