Penguins Playoff Update: How Important is Goaltending?

No, that’s not a trick question. A Captain Obvious one?

Perhaps.

As we approach our first playoff series since 2022, I’ve become increasingly concerned with the quality of our goaltending, or lack of. Following solid pre-Olympic showings, both Stuart Skinner and Arturs Šilovs have faltered since we resumed play in late February.

Through 14 appearances dating back to the return from the Olympic break, Skinner’s posted an .884 save percentage (SV%). Take away two strong performances at the front of that stretch? Stu’s got an .877 SV% in his last 12 outings.

We’re seeing the same from Šilovs. In 13 appearances since the Olympic break, he has an .871 SV%. Again, take away two strong outings at the beginning of that stretch, including a 22-save shutout against Vegas on March 1, Arturs’ SV% plummets to .850 in his last 11 appearances.

For perspective, the league average is .896 according to Hockey Reference. Let that sink in for a moment.

You can certainly argue that there were extenuating circumstances. A murderous March schedule, rated as the toughest in the league. Playing without Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Sam Girard and defensive linchpin Blake Lizotte for extended stretches certainly didn’t help. Nor did Kris Letang’s struggles for the better part of the month.

Still, it’s hard to imagine those factors would’ve made such a difference in our goalies’ performances.

At this stage, it appears the best Skinner-Šilovs can do is hold the line. Put another way, if the team plays a reasonably strong game, they’ll generally perform well enough for us to win. If we don’t play our best? I haven’t seen anything to suggest that either of our netminders can steal a game for us.

How crucial is that?

Step into the WABAC machine with me to the 2017 playoffs. After drubbing the CBJ in the first round, the Pens squared off against a prime Alex Ovechkin and the Capitals in the second round. Having been bounced from the playoffs by the Pens the previous season, a highly motivated and revenge-minded Caps squad to boot.

They played like it, too. The Caps pretty much dominated the series in terms of puck possession and shot activity. I remember doing the math at the time, and I believe our bitter rivals had 63 percent of the shot attempts over the seven-game set (to our 37 percent).

Ovi & Co. were nearly as dominant in terms of shots on goal, piling up a 229-161 edge, or 59 percent share. We were outshot in every single game.

The difference, plain and simple, was Marc-André Fleury. There were times when he literally stood on his head. During Game 4, when the Caps more than doubled us in shots on goal (38-18), it looked like they were running a power play 5v5. We struggled to break out of our zone for huge swaths of time, yet we won, 3-2, thanks to Flower.

Same thing in Game 7. The Caps had rallied to take Game 5 and blew us out in Game 6. They had all the momentum. Yet Flower stopped ‘em cold, posting a 29-save shutout.

His SV% for the series? A sterling .921.

Without his heroic performance, we don’t get out of that series and we don’t repeat as Cup champions.

That’s how integral quality goaltending is to a team’s success.

This isn’t meant as a put-down, but I don’t believe either of our present goalies is capable of that kind of sustained excellence. Over his three playoffs with the Oilers totaling 50 games, Skinner recorded a 2.88 goals against average (GAA) and .893 SV%. He does have four shutouts to his credit, including three last season when he shared the net with journeyman Calvin Pickard.

Šilovs has performed in one NHL postseason (2024). He registered a 2.91 GAA and .898 SV% with one shutout.

To his credit, the 24-year-old Latvian did backstop the Abbotsford Canucks to the Calder Cup last season while posting some truly brilliant numbers (2.01 GAA & .931 SV%). But, of course, that’s the AHL and this is the NHL. To say there’s a yawning difference between the circuits is an understatement of Biblical proportions.

Speaking of the AHL, if Skinner and Šilovs falter against the Flyers (and provided the series hasn’t slipped away) do we consider recalling goaltender of the future Sergei Murashov from the Baby Pens?

I’m getting way out ahead of myself, I know.

Hopefully, all of this is moot. Hopefully, our goalies can get ‘er done.

Hopefully.