I’m worried.
When you compare us to the Flyers, our first-round playoff foe, we stack up as the superior team in most statistical categories (as well as on paper). We have a far better regulation record (35-24-23 vs. 27-27-28). A far superior goal differential (+25 vs. +7).
Five-on-five, we’ve outscored our opponents 201-173, for a goals for percentage of 53.74, as opposed to the Flyers’ 51.94 percent (161-149).
A better power-play? Yes. A 24.14 percent conversion rate vs. the Flyers’ anemic 15.74 percent. Penalty-killing? Despite our recent slide, you betcha (81.43 percent vs 77.55 percent).
Star power?
Same deal. The Pens can trot out still-potent former Hart, Ross and Smythe Trophy winners Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, along with three-time Norris Trophy winner Erik Karlsson. To say nothing of All-Star caliber players Kris Letang, Rickard Rakell and Bryan Rust. Thirty-three goal-man Anthony Mantha and sniper Egor Chinakhov, too.
In particular, our ability to roll four solid lines is a huge plus.
The Flyers boast a good young core of Jamie Drysdale, Travis Konecny, Trevor Zegras, Matvei Michkov, Owen Tippett and 19-year-old Porter Martone. But nothing approaching the firepower we can throw their way.
Drysdale and Travis Sanheim aside, I’m not especially awed by the Flyers’ defense and think it can be exploited.
So why am I worried? Call it a hunch. Something in the air…indefinable yet tangible all the same.
As well as our Pens played to nail down a playoff spot, the Flyers were that much better. After enduring a ghastly 3-10-3 stretch that included a 3-1 loss to the Caps in their first game following the Olympic break, Philly went a piping-hot 18-6-1 the rest of the way.
Over that same 25-game-stretch, the Pens were a pedestrian-by-comparison 11-10-1. Yes, we won the big games when we needed to. But Philly would seem to have the edge in forward momentum heading into the playoffs.
Too, it’s the way the Flyers play under former Pens assistant Rick Tocchet. They employ a patient, buttoned-down style and do a great job of insulating their goalies (more on that topic in a bit). Not unlike the Barry Trotz Islanders of a few years back, who would rope-a-dope us into mistakes and then pounce. (I still have nightmares of Jordan Eberle breaking in alone on our goalies.)
Suffice to say, the Flyers are used to playing tight, low-scoring playoff style hockey.
The Pens? Not so much.
Given the high-powered nature of our offense, especially of late, the pessimist in me can see us getting frustrated if the puck doesn’t go in. Which could lead to us pressing. Which could lead to…(see above).
Goaltending also concerns me. After performing well through the middle portion of the season, Stuart Skinner and Arturs Šilovs have fallen on hard times. Since the Olympic break, Big Stu has an .884 save percentage. Šilovs checks in at .871. Neither has looked particularly sharp of late.
By contrast, key free-agent pickup Dan Vladar has been mostly terrific for the Flyers. The rangy 6’5” Czechian posted a .906 save percentage, 2.42 goals against average and sterling .725 quality starts percentage.
Since the Olympic break, a .909 save percentage.
In his career versus the Pens spanning six games, including two this season, Vladar’s posted an .899 save percentage and 3.10 goals against average to go with a 2-3-1 record, according to Dobber’s Frozen Tools.
On the flip side, our likely starter, Skinner has an impressive career record of 5-1-2 against the Flyers, with a 2.45 goals against average and .913 save percentage. Šilovs has been even better against the orange-and-black, a 1.92 goals-against average and .944 save percentage against Philly. So there’s hope they can keep the Flyers at bay.
Whether they can steal a game? A whole other matter.
Back to that “something in the air.” In the spring of 2012, the Pens were an absolute juggernaut. In my humble opinion, arguably the best team of the Crosby-Malkin era. At the zenith of his abilities, Geno scored 50 goals. He was an absolute beast that season, the most dominant player I’d seen since Mario Lemieux. Sidekick James Neal notched 40, while Pascal Dupuis, Chris Kunitz and Jordan Staal each had 25 goals or better. Sid had finally returned hale and hearty from his concussion/neck odyssey.
We were deep, feisty and tough. Able to beat you on the ice and in the alley.
In its playoff preview, Sports Illustrated blared, “Who Can Stop the Penguins?”
The Flyers did. In the first round. In six games. Made it look easy, to boot.
I’m getting the same kind of vibes.
Don’t get me wrong. I truly love our team. Its heart ‘n’ soul makeup and never-say-die attitude. We possess an enormous reservoir of grit and character, perhaps more than any black-and-gold squad I’ve watched in the 50+ years I’ve been following the team. I doubt if Philly, young and spirited as they are, can match that.
Too, we’re in excellent hands with Dan Muse and his staff. He’s pushed all the right buttons so far, extraordinary for a rookie coach.
I just hope it’s enough.
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Hey, so apparently lizotte and dewar were full participants in practice, and solderblom took brasseaus spot today. Brasseaus apparently has an ice pack on a shoulder.
This is fantastic news, assuming no setbacks for lizotte and dewar. That 4th line is the secret sauce, and I am excited to see zegras run away from Elmer.
Pens in 6!
Rick,
Do you remember the 74-75 season – wow what a team. That team averaged 4.08 GF/GP. That team’s Sv% was 0.893 – the league avg Sv% was 0.889. They beat St. Louis in a best 3 and even jumped to a 3 games to zero lead in the NYI series, then lost the next 4.
How about the 12-13 team. That team had the best GF/GP in the entire league during the regular season, 3.38. They even had really good Goaltending Sv%. 0.915 when the league avg was 0.909. That team started out better, besting NYI and OTT before getting swept by BOS, only scoring a total of 2 Goals in the 4 GP of the Conference finals.
What about the 20-21 Pens, second in the league in scoring (3.45 GF/GP) and with Sv% 5 points about the league avg, yet they lost to NYI.
Point is while I do respect the efforts of the skaters on this team, I fear that this Flyer series is only a 50-50 pick’em unless the team goes with different Goalies than Skinner and Silovs. I hate to say it, but I am wishing for a repeat of the 15-16 season, and both veteran Goalies get injured, forcing management to use one of the vastly superior kids. At that point, then I could see a close or even a full repeat of the fabulous playoff.
Hey Other Rick,
I'm going to give you your (long overdue) due concerning our goaltenders. You were the first to call them out, early and often, specifically Silovs with his rebound control issues. Only now am I beginning to come around and see what you're seeing.
Frankly, our goaltending flat-out worries me.
I'm just not sure throwing Murashov and/or Blomqvist into the breach would work. Of course, Matt Murray stepped into a similar situation and backstopped us to back-to-back Cups, but he had a bit of a runway at the end of 2015-16 that we didn't afford Murashov or Blomqvist. Of course, that doesn't mean they wouldn't rise to the occasion.
If Skinner-Silovs really falter and we go down by a couple of games early, it'll be interesting to see what we do.
But you're proving to be right about our goaltending.
Rick
Honestly, I'm only worried if referee Rank is involved.
I have playoffs nervous vibes as well, it's been 3 years and who knows what will happen?
But I will point out, the flyers won like 70% of their games in the shootout, which doesn't exist now, thankfully.
Muse has shown me several promising things, one of them being the ability to alter things like how the team approaches the neutral zone, etc. this encourages me in that I think he will be able to counter the flyers.
Lastly, I don't think we lose to the Flyers. Honestly, I think we win in 5 games or less. Don't forget how good the pens have done this year in scoring on great goalies. They chased sorokin recently iirc. The 4 deep lines really is impressive.
Can the game start already? I'm so psyched!
Hello Keeger, and thanks for reading and responding. I always took forward to your comments.
You bring up a couple of really good points. I especially like and appreciate your insights about Muse and how he's able to make adjustments on how we approach the neutral zone. That could be a huge factor before all is said and done.
Very different from 2012, when Dan Bylsma was totally outcoached by Peter Laviolette and our matchups with the Islanders, when Barry Trotz got the better of Mike Sullivan.
I am worried about our goaltending, though, and the fact that we're likely going to need to make like the Oilers and outscore teams in order to be successful. As a general rule, that approach doesn't lead to postseason success.
Rick
I do have to admit, the other night vs st Louis had me .. concerned.
But, boy we had some awful defenders out there and no one was in sync. I was just glad none of the goalies got hurt.
Now that the 4th line is back, I expect much better defensive play, with shot suppression and blocked shots.
Skinner has been here for 2 years, and not only that, he's experienced the Canadian...love... That goalies get when they don't win a Cup for the country that claims superiority in the sport. I think he will rise up in this series.
I just ran some numbers for my latest article. In his last 12 appearances, Skinner has an .877 save percentage. In his last 11 appearances, Silovs has an .850 save percentage.
Yikes!
I know there were extenuating circumstances...murderous schedule, playing without Sid, Geno, Girard and Lizotte for stretches, Letang's struggles. But those numbers don't fill me with confidence... :(
Anyway, hope you're right about Stu rising to the occasion. And getting our fourth line back is, indeed, huge. Love those guys!
GO PENS!
Rick
Yeah, those save percentages are nuts right?
But I hold to my belief that the every other night aspect kept the goaltenders from getting into rhythm. Ie, see silovs remarkably improve in his 2nd straight start.