It’s been a couple of days since the bombshell Ville Koivunen extension ($32 million over eight seasons) grabbed headlines throughout the hockey world.
Frankly, I’m still trying to make some sense of it.
It’s one thing to offer a mega-deal to a genuine, can’t miss blue-chipper who you know is going to pan out. I mentioned in a recent article that Oilers stud Leon Draisaitl posted the very same anemic numbers (two goals) as Koivunen during his rookie season. But you knew Draisaitl was going to be a star.
It’s something entirely else (insane, perhaps?) to offer such a deal to a player who is anything but a lock to make it in the NHL. Or as the Tribune-Review’s Joe Starkey so succinctly put it, “Nobody even knows if Ville Koivunen is an NHL player.”
I’m reminded that former Pens GM Ron Hextall was excoriated in the summer of 2022 for extending former first-round pick Kasperi Kapanen for two seasons at a then pricey $3.2 million cap hit on the heels of a down (some would say dreadful) season. Yet, Kappy had at least produced 11 goals and 32 points. Positively Mario-esque compared to Koivunen’s stunted output last season.
In the kid’s defense, a player’s development isn’t always linear or immediate. For example, it took Pens Stanley Cup hero Bob Errey, a 15th overall pick, four cracks before he finally established himself as a bona fide NHLer.
Youngsters who make an immediate splash like Ben Kindel tend to be the exception rather than the rule. Koivunen may yet fulfill at least some of the promise he’s displayed in the AHL and during his late-season cameo in 2024-25.
Still, potential alone in no way justifies the ridiculous contract length and term. Opposing GMs weren’t exactly elbowing each other out of the way to extend Ville an offer sheet. A shorter-term deal, perhaps two seasons (three max) at, say $2-3 million per, would’ve provided ample runway to see if the kid could make it.
Too, the contract will surely place Koivunen squarely in the crosshairs, where his every move will be scrutinized and magnified. Especially if he fails. That’s a heck of a lot of added pressure to place on the youngster.
Yes, I’m aware there’s a relatively cheap (if lengthy) buyout option a couple of seasons down the road, that dramatically lessens the risk to the team. Still, this just seemed totally unnecessary on Dubas’ part to extend the offer in the first place. Especially since there doesn’t even appear to be a lineup spot available for the 23-year-old Finn. Which leads me to…
Discouragement in the Ranks?
Another aspect of our summer that has me flummoxed? The way Dubas loaded up on forwards to the extent that it left nary an opening for a deserving kid.
Indeed, barring a trade, the only available slot is right wing on the fourth line. Veterans Justin Brazeau and Elmer Söderblom will likely get first crack, which basically slams the door on prospects like peppery Avery Hayes and Rutger McGroarty from gaining even a toehold. To say nothing of Koivunen, Tristan Broz and Filip Hållander.
To digress, some competition for roster spots is both healthy and necessary. But Dubas crossed the line (and then some) by packing the forward ranks like a tin of sardines. It’s one thing if these moves were made with the intent of making us a legitimate Cup contender, but they weren’t. Far from it.
Now imagine for a moment you’re one of these kids. You’ve just come off a season where you busted your hump in order to ready yourself for the next step. It’s human nature to want and even expect to be rewarded for your hard work. Then you look up and see that Dubas essentially paved over any entry portals with quick-drying cement.
I know as a rule hockey players are mentally tough and used to overcoming obstacles. Still, how would that make you feel?
Discouraged and demotivated, I’d say.
The shame of it is, last season’s Baby Pens had built a wonderful esprit d corps, an all-for-one comradery. That’s going to be severely put to the test if changes aren’t made.
Unless you’ve already privately deemed who’s going to make it and who isn’t, sooner or later you’ve got to play these kids and see what you’ve got.
At the present, Dubas has left no room for that.
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Rick,
Interestingly enough you broached diametrically opposite stratagems; you talk about healthy competition being good and juxtaposed it with having already made up your mind as to who gets to play. I know you didn't endorse either thought process nor suggest you knew which Dubas was intending to follow - I just find the dichotomy interesting. Also, I just discussed this in a couple of replies, with the number of players that will be in camp, no one will get enough reps to truly be evaluated and perhaps also not get game ready before the puck drops for real.
Another problem with Dubas' scattershot approach is that even if some of the prospects who aren't under contract or who may come in on PTOs do find a way to distinguish themselves, Dubas has once again used up almost all of his allotted 50 contracts(48 at the moment) so there will be very little room to take on any surprise players.
If our C and C would have waited and brought players like Kozmenko in on PTOs instead of actual contracts, that would have at least shown some level of actual critical thinking on his part.
There is a fairly strong probability that Dubas will be able to add Koivunen and Novak to his list of Graves and Jarry contracts.