For the most part, my take on the changes Kyle Dubas has wrought this summer has been a tad on the negative side. Indeed, to say I haven’t given the Penguins’ POHO/GM much love is a vast understatement. Especially over the way he packed the forward ranks while leaving nary a slot for a deserving kid.
That being said, I began to think of our likely forward group in terms of production. You know what? Provided Dubas doesn’t part with any high-profile veterans, we have the potential to score goals.
Lots of ‘em.
Assuming everyone stays reasonably healthy, always a bit of a crapshoot, here are my guesstimated output ranges for each of our lines.
FIRST LINE (75-90 goals)
Last season our top line of Sidney Crosby (29), Rickard Rakell (24) and Bryan Rust (29) tallied 82 goals, despite missing a combined 46 games for various and sundry reasons. While each is a year older and well into their 30s, there’s no reason to think they can’t at the very least match that production this time around.
At age 39, Sid’s days of chasing 40 goals are likely at an end. However, with better luck health-wise, he and his linemates could easily score 30 goals apiece. Certainly a bare minimum of 25 apiece.
SECOND LINE (65-70 goals)
On the surface, my expectations for the second line may seem a little high, especially in light of the fact that the trio combined for 53 goals a season ago. Nineteen by franchise icon Evgeni Malkin (in 56 games), 18 by sharpshooting countryman Egor Chinakhov and 16 by neutral-zone hawk Tommy Novak.
However, Chinakhov potted those 18 goals in a smidge over half a season. With his wicked shot and release, to say nothing of the excellent chemistry he shared with his linemates, Chinny could notch 30 goals…perhaps even 35.
Of course, much depends on whether Geno can stay healthy. Despite his age and checkered health history, I’m penciling him in for 20. Novak 15.
THIRD LINE (45-60 goals)
I honestly have no clue as to how newcomers Andrei Kuzmenko and Nicholas Robertson will mesh with Ben Kindel…or if they will. Individually, the troika combined for 46 goals in 2025-26, 17 by rookie sensation Kindel, 16 by Robertson (with the Leafs) and 13 by Kuzmenko (in 52 games with the Kings).
Provided they click, each member of the unit could conceivably score 20 goals. In the case of the newbies, even more. Or they could each slog around the 15-goal mark.
A true boom or bust line. Especially given the noted defensive deficiencies of Kuzmenko and Robertson, which could place an extra onus on Kindel to do all the heavy lifting and backchecking. Which could, in turn, detract from his production.
FOURTH LINE (30 goals)
Last season, the primary members of the fourth line combined for 34 goals, including 21 by holdovers Connor Dewar and Blake Lizotte. Add in another nine by injury fill-ins Avery Hayes and hulking trade-deadline pickup Elmer Söderblom, and that’s 43 goals from your bottom unit. Superb production in anybody’s book.
I’m going a little conservative with my estimate and predicting the unit will score 30 goals this season. Ten apiece by Dewar, Lizotte and whoever replaces Noel Acciari, be it Hayes, Söderblom, Rutger McGroarty, Justin Brazeau or some combination thereof.
Add it all up? If all goes well, Penguins forwards could score in the neighborhood of 250 goals. Toss in a repeat performance of 33 goals from our defense (perhaps a bit of a stretch) and a clump of goals from call-ups and fill-ins?
The black-and-gold could once again rank among the elite offensive clubs in the NHL.
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Hey Rick,
The With or Without You numbers show that if you do not play Novak with Chinakhov and Geno, you won't get much production from him. Novak doesn't have the skill set to play bottom six and isn't a real talent so he is really a second line Center on bottom third team - needing two really good Wings to pick his game up.
With or Without You numbers from last season show that Kindel isn't there either. He still has lots of room to grow, but last season he needed the two big bodies of Mantha and Brazeau to open up the ice for him. When he was on the ice with those twin towers, his line was popping well over 3 Goals per 60 minutes. When he was on the ice without both of those specimens his Team Goal prodiction was less than half, barely 1.5 G/60. Mantha is definitely gone and Brazeau has been pushed to the threshold of the door. Robertson is well below the size of those two players and Kuzmenko really is a limited one trick poney.
Barring major changes, the projected line up doesn't fill me with confidence.